THE NEW TRUMP

There are two things certain after any debate.  One is that the professional pundits will get it wrong.  The other is that the real impact of a debate never shows up immediately.  Sad to say, the Fox News panel was actually worse than CNN.  That is incredible when one considers the pathetic liberals that dominate CNN.

For weeks we have watched the Republican establishment attack Donald Trump, only to make him more popular.  Yet the recommendation was always to attack Trump.  The more people attacked Trump the bigger he looked.  Rubio, in an act of desperation, listened to this advice and attacked Donald Trump with disastrous results.  Yet, again tonight there was Charles Krauthammer saying that Rubio and Kasich missed an opportunity to attack Trump.  Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

Donald Trump did appear more Presidential tonight but I am not sure that helped him.  A large part of the appeal for Donald Trump is that he was the politically incorrect outsider who fought off his attackers.  He was always the most out of control guy in the room and voters furious with the establishment absolutely loved it.  Well tonight the fighter never showed.  Instead we saw a kinder, gentler Donald Trump.  The result was that Trump stumbled badly on important issues.  When Trump gets into an adult policy debate with Ted Cruz he loses badly.

So how bad was this.  Perhaps we can take a clue from the Drudge Report.  A lot of people have noticed that the Drudge Report has been very favorable to Donald Trump.  I always checked the instant poll on Drudge after every debate and in every case Trump was the big winner.  At times was almost shocking because to me Trump was acting like a spoiled eighth grader.  But his supporters loved it and he typically won the instant poll by huge margins.  Ted Cruz usually came in a distant second, at around 20%.  Rubio always came in just below Cruz and no one else mattered.  Tonight the results were very different.  Donald Trump still won, but by a much smaller margin.  Approximately 49.5% percent of people thought Trump won the debate, but this time 43.5% thought Cruz won.  Rubio and Kasich barely registered with 3.75% saying Rubio won and 3.14% saying Rubio won.

This is not a scientific poll; it just measures people who read the Drudge Report and then vote.  But the enormous change in results is still significant.  There is no doubt that Donald Trump did a lot worse, Cruz did a lot better and Rubio and Kasich were considered irrelevant.   I was surprised because I thought Rubio had a really good night, but I suspect the results reflect the obvious fact that Rubio has no chance at winning the nomination.

How will the new Trump play?  No one knows for sure.  All we know is that things have changed.

TDM

SILENCE IS GOLDEN

If you watched the news last night, you probably believe Donald Trump has sewn up the Republican nomination.  That would certainly be true if the only voters were liberals in the main stream media and the pundits on Fox News.  But the facts paint a very different picture.  At every stage in this election all of the pundits have over-estimated Donald Trump and/or John Kasich and/or Marco Rubio. At every stage in this election cycle, all of the pundits have underestimated Ted Cruz.  At every stage they have been wrong.  At some point they might want to look at the actual data.

What happened last night is nothing short of a huge strategic setback for Donald Trump.  He won the battle, in that he won Michigan, Mississippi and Hawaii.  He is likely to win more battles, like in Florida and Ohio.  But ultimately he is going to be defeated, because Ted Cruz is beating the only people left capable of giving Donald Trump the nomination; John Kasich and Marco Rubio.

Rubio is finished after last night.  It is so bad that he would be smart to drop out of the race and endorse Cruz before the Florida primary.  Otherwise he is doomed to a humiliating defeat in his own state. John Kasich has come in second in one state and third in another.  In every other state he has trouble reaching double digits.  He has admitted that his goal is to prevent Trump or Cruz from winning so he can get the nomination in a brokered convention.  That is beyond delusional.

Cruz beat Kasich and Rubio in every state.  Only in Michigan was it even close. Kasich spent a fortune in Michigan, he practically lived there during the last couple of weeks and the airways were flooded with anti-Trump and anti-Cruz ads.  Cruz was sick all week and only showed up in Michigan just before midnight on Monday night.  All the pundits thought Kasich would do very well and that he might even beat Trump.   He didn’t even beat Cruz.  Rubio lost everywhere.

In case anyone is impressed with the 47.3% total by Trump in Mississippi, remember that Mississippi is another open primary state.  So is Michigan.  Odds are pretty high that a majority of Republicans did not vote for Donald Trump.  In Mississippi, Hillary was obviously going to win the Democratic primary by a huge margin.  It would be very tempting for Democrats to cross over and vote for Donald Trump, since they view him as the worst possible choice for Republicans.

Numerous polls show that Donald Trump’s unfavorability ratings are sky high.  The following NBC/WSJ poll is demonstrates the problem:

http://www.aol.com/article/2016/03/09/majority-of-american-voters-say-trump-is-harming-gop/21324972/?icid=maing-grid7%7Chtmlws-main-bb%7Cdl1%7Csec1_lnk3%26pLid%3D544807410

“Although Donald Trump is leading the Republican horse race, a majority of American voters believe his comments on the campaign trail are insulting; 6 in 10 say he’s harming the Republican Party’s image; and nearly two-thirds have a negative opinion of him — making Trump the most unpopular figure in the poll.”

Even more devastating is the following conclusion: “What’s more, just half of Republican primary voters — 53 percent — say they’d be satisfied with Trump as the party’s presidential nominee.

If these numbers are accurate, and they sure look to be accurate, Trump is likely to suffer a humiliating defeat in November.  He literally may be the ONLY Republican in the field capable of losing to Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders.

How did this happen?  The answer is quite easy.  People really are that disgusted with the Republican establishment.  Trump feeds off that anger. When Mitt Romney hammered Donald Trump with cold hard facts, all people heard was another Republican establishment figure telling them how to feel.  People are sick and tired of the cultured elite in both parties arrogantly ignoring ordinary citizens.  They are sick and tired of people pretending to share our values only to compromise them away as soon as they get elected.

The good news is that there are two anti-establishment candidates and one of them is NOT Donald Trump.  If this is not a two man race today, it will be a two man race after next Tuesday. Neither John Kasich nor Marco Rubio has any chance of winning the nomination.  That is even more obvious today than it was yesterday. It will be undeniable after next Tuesday.

It is quite simple, except to the so-called experts.  After next Tuesday, voters will have a choice between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz.  Unless the 60 to 65% of people who consider Donald Trump to be unqualified to be President change their mind, Ted Cruz is going to start winning everywhere.  Even better news for Cruz is that the Republican establishment is not trying to help.  If the Republican establishment just goes home and shuts up, Cruz has a very good chance of winning this.  Sometimes, “Silence is Golden.”

TDM

 

 

 

THE ID’S OF MARCH

The next two weeks are going to be interesting.  The Trump campaign is hoping to run the table and seal the deal.  They may run the table, but it won’t seal the deal.  The Republican establishment is praying that John Kasich wins in Michigan and Ohio so he can become the establishment alternative to Trump.  The Rubio camp appears to be preparing for bad weather.  The polls are all over the place and it is impossible to predict much.  In addition, there are not a lot of polls.

Fox News is desperately pushing a Kasich surge in Michigan.  They are predicting the voters will respond to the kinder, gentler Republican establishment governor.  They are praying that voters turn away from the bitter rhetoric of Donald Trump and Ted Cruz.  They have given up on Rubio.

Best case for Trump would be to win big in Michigan, Mississippi and Idaho and then win in Florida and Ohio.  The pundits will announce that the race is over and Trump has this sewn up.  The Cruz campaign will be silently celebrating because they know the opposite is true.  This would result in both Kasich and Rubio dropping out of the race.  If they drop out and this becomes Trump vs Cruz, the most likely result is that Ted Cruz easily wins most of the remaining states and gets more than enough delegates to win the nomination.

Best case for Cruz is that he wins in Mississippi and Idaho and he comes in second in Michigan, Florida or Ohio.  Obviously if he won any of the big three states it would be huge but while that is possible it is far from likely.

Worse case for the Republican Party and for the country is that Kasich wins in Michigan and Ohio and Rubio wins in Florida.  That would almost certainly result in no one winning the nomination outright and a chaotic Republican convention.  That would be unlikely to end up well.

Fox News has given up on Rubio and is now pushing Kasich.  Once again they are grossly underestimating the anger toward the establishment in both parties.  John Kasich is a nice guy, but he is a typical compassionate conservative Republican RINO who will almost instantly compromise with Democrats in their mission to pave the road to disaster.  Most Republicans have figured that out, which is why Kasich has trouble getting north of 10% if most states.  The only chance for Kasich to get the nomination is if neither Trump nor Cruz gets enough votes during the primary elections and the convention unites behind Kasich.  He openly dreams of this.  It is easily the worst case scenario for the Republican Party and the country.

TDM

WAVE NIGHT

The results from yesterday’s primaries and elections are astonishing.  Once again, most of the main stream media missed it.  They did notice that Ted Cruz won in Kansas, Maine and Kentucky.  But they still consider Trump to be the leader.  They failed to grasp the significance of this wave election.  Cruz out performed by a big margin everywhere.  Donald Trump underperformed everywhere.  Rubio didn’t come close to beating Cruz in any state.  John Kasich isn’t even showing a pulse.

In addition, this analysis by the Washington Examiner shows that if it wasn’t for early voting, Cruz might have won in Louisiana too.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/why-louisiana-tells-us-the-most-about-trump/article/2585069

Results Saturday:

Trump           Cruz          Rubio               Kasich

Alaska                                 33.5              36.4           15.1                   4.1

Kansas                                23.3              48.2           16.7                 10.7

Kentucky                             35.9              31.6            16.4                 14.4

Louisiana                             41.4              37.8            11.2                  6.4

Maine                                   32.6              45.9            12.2                  8.0

Trump’s support is a mile deep but an inch wide.  Cruz’s support is an inch deep but a mile wide.  Anyone paying attention realizes that this is now a two man race.  Neither Rubio nor Kasich have any chance at winning this.  A brokered convention is a futile dream by a Republican establishment desperately clinging to the illusion it still matters.  The most certain thing in this election is that Republicans are revolting against the Republican establishment.

The Cruz campaign is already running on a single message.  A vote for Marco Rubio or John Kasich is a vote for Donald Trump. That is likely to resonate with voters everywhere, including places like Michigan, Florida and Ohio.  Cruz doesn’t even need to win in any of those three states; he just needs Rubio and Kasich to lose.  If they finish behind him it will be even better.  The delegates in Michigan, Florida and Ohio are nice, but there are more than enough delegates remaining for Cruz to easily win the nomination.  It seems obvious that if Rubio and Kasich drop out of the race the majority of their support will go to Cruz, not Trump.  If that is true, Cruz could start running the table after March 15.

There is something else.  I am not sure that Donald Trump even wants to be President.  I think he wants to win, but I am not sure he wants the job.  He obviously respects Cruz and he has already blown up the Republican establishment.  He will still try to win, because he is a pure bread competitor, but if he loses to Cruz, he can go back to his former life style of the Rich and Famous basking in the glow of doing very well in the ultimate contest.  Cruz, on the other hand, wants the job.  Cruz is on a mission to save this country from what he views as total disaster.  Cruz actually believes this may be our last chance to stop the descent into madness.

In any event, yesterday changed everything.  I wonder how long before the people at Fox News figure this out.  We can be certain that the rich guys who finance things like Presidential elections have definitely figured this out.

TDM

MOB RULE

Ted Cruz questioned whether or not Donald Trump’s tax returns could show a strong connection with the mob.  Trump is supported by the mob, but not necessarily the mob Cruz was talking about.

The big surprise last night was that Ted Cruz came from way behind in the polls to win Oklahoma.  Prior to the election the polls were averaging Trump 32.7, Rubio 21.3, Cruz 20.3, Carson 7.3, and Kasich 6.3.  Donald Trump was averaging 11.7 over Rubio who consistently came in second.  But Cruz won and he won big.  Final results were Cruz 34.4, Trump 28.3, Rubio 26.0, Carson 6.2, and Kasich 3.6.  I tried to figure out why the results were so different in Oklahoma.  I found it in the following article in the Weekly Standard:

http://www.weeklystandard.com/five-reasons-trump-is-weaker-than-he-looks/article/2001354

Oklahoma was the ONLY state last night that had a closed primary where only Republicans could vote.  This means that Donald Trump is not necessarily winning with Republicans; he may be winning because a lot of Democrats and Independents are crossing over and voting in the Republican Primary.

So I did some research to see how that plays out in the future:

Following are open Primary States:  Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Where did Trump win last night?  He won in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia and Massachusetts.  ALL except Massachusetts were open primary states.  The pattern is obvious.

The remaining open primary states are Hawaii, Indiana, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, and Ohio.

There are 17 closed primary states:  They are Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Wyoming.

All the rest are a combination of above.  But, the biggest prize of all is California.  Here in California if you are registered as a Republican, you get a Republican ballot.  If you are registered as a Democrat you get a Democratic ballot.  If you are registered as an Independent you get a ballot listing all the “non-partisan” contenders.  I remember when I first came here I registered as an independent.  I was shocked when I got a ridiculous non-partisan ballot during the primary election.  I then registered as a Republican because I sure wasn’t going to register as a Democrat.

When the Republican electorate is split, as it is now, we can and will have our nominee chosen by a mob of people we may not even recognize.  That goes a long way toward explaining why Trump is winning.  It also provides further evidence of the stupidity of the Republican establishment.  But, it just may mean that the future for Donald Trump is not quite as obvious as it appears to some.

TDM

STORMY WEATHER

The only thing certain with regard to any election is that the pundits will get it wrong.  Donald Trump had a good night, but he did not run the table.  In checking the polls with the actual results, Trump either did about as expected or he dropped.  He did not outperform by a significant margin anywhere.  Cruz beat the polls in every state except Virginia.  Rubio underperformed in every state but Virginia.  No one paid any attention to Minnesota, because that was a caucus state with low turnout.  That was the only victory for Rubio.

Fox News is still praying that somehow Rubio will wage a comeback and soar past Cruz.  They are dreaming the impossible dream.  Honest pundits know that the only candidate, other than Trump, who has any realistic path to the Presidency, is Ted Cruz. Kasich is the ultimate establishment candidate and he has no chance.  Ben Carson never was and never will be.  That leaves Rubio and Cruz.  As for Rubio the writing is on the wall.

Daniel 5:25

mene, mene, tekel, parsin

Following is the translation for Tekel:

You have been weighed on the scales and found wanting.

There will be some arguing, praying actual, that perhaps Rubio is still a viable candidate, but “me thinks thee doth protest too much.”  If it takes this much effort to explain why you think Rubio still has a shot, it is because you know he doesn’t.  If Rubio supporters realize that he has no chance of winning this, they will start looking for another place to go.  My guess is that most Rubio voters are strongly anti-Trump. If they start leaving Rubio, they are unlikely to go to Kasich, because he has no chance.  They may not like it, but the only other candidate available is Ted Cruz.

Trump had a big night, but in his best state over 57% of Republicans still voted against him.  That number is unlikely to change. The Republican establishment will desperately try to pump up Rubio, which will hurt him more than help, him.  They will also take on Trump and even though they are lousy at this stuff, they still have ammunition.  No one should underestimate the significant of Trump being charged with fraud with regard to Trump University. There is more here than you think.  In 2010 the New York Department of Education sent Trump University a letter accusing it of misleading students by calling itself a university. The response was a name change from Trump University to Trump Entrepreneurial Initiative.  Ouch! The following article from time.com/money explains:

http://time.com/money/4010695/trump-university-scam-donald-trump/

Rubio is going to be screaming that Donald Trump is a scam artist.  Former students, ignored for years, are about to get their 15 minutes of fame

“For my $35,000+ all I got was books that I could have gotten from the library that could guide me better then Trump’s class did. I just want my $35,000+ money back. I feel embarrass[ed],” r

Another former “student,” who purchased the $34,995 “Gold Elite” package after the $1,495 seminar under the promise of mentorship, calls the program “an absolute, utter waste.”

Trump is going to try and scream this away, but I am not sure that is remotely possible. Just imagine that this only costs Trump 5 points.  Suppose that Rubio only loses 5

Suddenly this race looks very different.  This is far from over.  Trump is clearly the front runner and he has a load of steam, but a lot can happen on the way to the Forum.  He is about to encounter some stormy weather.  Just saying!

TDM

THE FAT LADY

Virtually everyone thinks that Donald Trump is going to win today in a landslide and that this will effectively end the Republican nomination.  It would have been wiser for them to wait for actual results, because so far, in every election, Trump has underperformed in the actual election and both Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio have over-performed.  Contrary to what you hear on Fox News, Cruz has actually done better than Rubio.  For example in South Carolina the pre-election polls had Rubio at 18.8 and Cruz at 18.5.  The actual results were Rubio 22.5 and Cruz 22.3.  So both outperformed the polls by a significant margin and Cruz actually did slightly better than Rubio. So even if voting follows prior trends, it will be much closer than what is being reported.  In addition Trump has been hit hard over the last few days.  That may help him do even better, but it could also hurt him.  We won’t know until tonight.

But even if Trump has a huge day today, this race is far from over.  The problem is that Trump was hit with a bombshell today.  The New York State Appeals Court not only upheld some class action civil cases against Trump University, it upheld a fraud clase filed by Attorney General Eric Schneiderman.  Schneiderman is a Democrat closely associated with Governor Cuomo, but this is a far cry from the Travis County grand jury indictments against Tom Delay and Rick Perry.  Regardless of the political motivation, this case has the ugly odor of truth.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-university-idUSKCN0W357N

Perhaps Ted Cruz nailed it when he said this:

“I want you to think about, if this man is the nominee, having the Republican nominee on the stand in court, being cross-examined about whether he committed fraud,” Cruz said during the debate. “You don’t think the mainstream media will go crazy on that?”

Sounds about right.  As Yogi Bera said, the opera isn’t over until the fat lady sings.  In this case, contrary to what is being reported in the media, she hasn’t even started to warm up yet.

TDM

SUPER TUESDAY

If CNN is right, Donald Trump is going to run the table tomorrow.  The poll was conducted February 24 to 27th.   That makes this poll difficult to evaluate.  While some of this was after the Thursday night debate, it may or may not reflect any recent changes.  It is quite possible that people are just sick of the whole thing so they are going to vote for Trump, regardless of the obvious problems and end this.  If that is what is happening, the CNN poll is probably right.  However it is also possible that some of the back and forth between Trump and Rubio has had an impact.  If people are paying attention, there should be some serious questions about Donald Trump.  No one really knows.  Sadly, in this election cycle, widespread stupidity is the most likely outcome.  I still expect Cruz to win big in Texas but am not sure it will matter.

What we do know is that CNN wants Trump to be the candidate.  That is not necessarily a good thing for Republicans.  We also know that Fox News wants Marco Rubio.  The Republican establishment wants anyone but Trump or Cruz.  They would probably choose Trump over Cruz because they think they can make a deal with Trump.

This means if Trump has a big day tomorrow, the Republican establishment is likely to do one of two things.  They will either unite behind Trump or launch a suicide mission to stop him with a draft candidate like Mitt Romney or even Rick Perry.  That, of course, will be a miserable failure.  They are least likely to do the one thing that would stop Trump, which is uniting behind Ted Cruz.

Sadly it looks like we are could end up with a choice between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.  It is hard to imagine ever voting for Hillary Clinton but Donald Trump at least makes that something to reluctantly consider.  Both are horrible choices for President of the United States.  As soon as the nomination is secure, we can expect Trump to move to the left and Hillary to move to the right.  Both are willing to say and do anything to gain power.  It may shock people to learn that Hillary is probably more likely to protect the second amendment than Trump.  She won’t do that until Bernie Sanders is dead and buried, but she is well aware of the power of the NRA.  Hillary is not stupid and she knows that the NRA has a 58% approval rating.  Hillary cannot afford to have the NRA running ads opposing her during a general election.

The results this week in South Carolina prove that people are more than willing to jump on a bandwagon even when it is obviously headed toward a cliff.  How else do you explain Democrats giving such a huge victory to Hillary Clinton?  They just ignored the huge problems and voted for her anyway.  If Republicans are equally stupid, Donald Trump will soar to a victory tomorrow.  It will be small comfort that we will deserve the disastrous results likely from stupidly allowing either of them to be President of the United States.

One final thought.  The last time I checked, at least 13 million people listen to Rush Limbaugh every day.  Another 12.5 mill listen to Sean Hannity.   In the last couple of days, Rush has been much stronger in endorsing Ted Cruz.  His spin on the Republican debate was very different than the main stream media.  Following is a link to his February 26, 2016 broadcast.

http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2016/02/26/cruz_exposed_trump_s_biggest_weakness_in_a_race_against_hillary

In terms of substance?  I disagree with Chris Wallace.  I think there was substance in this debate last night, and depending on what you want — depending on what you were hoping to see and then what you think going forward — there’s really only one candidate in this debate last night which was chock-full of genuine policy-oriented substance, and that was Cruz.  

We are about to find out how many people listen to Rush Limbaugh and whether or not he impacts how they vote.  Bill O’Reilly has the biggest audience at Fox News.  In 2015, during his best week he logged about 3.3 million viewers.  He averages just under 600,000 per night.  So, who has more influence?

TDM

AFTER THE FOX

If nothing else, Marco Rubio has made this race interesting.  He is actually quite funny in attacking Donald Trump.  If he doesn’t win the nomination he sure has a future in show business.  The insults are flying and it is clear that Donald is pissed.  If they weren’t actually running for President this would be hysterical.  But they are running for President and I am embarrassed by both of them.  We are used to the silly insults from Donald Trump.  Now we have Rubio calling Trump’s plane “Hair Force One” and criticizing his spray tan. Really!

The way this election goes, Trump may do even better in the polls.  It seems like the entire country is fascinated by the clown act.  But there is a possibility that some of the Rubio and Cruz attacks are hitting home.  The Trump University case is beyond embarrassing.  It smells of fraud.  In addition, if anyone is actually paying attention, Trump is looking pretty unhinged.  I watched his rally yesterday and he was just spouting insults and rambling all over the place.  It was pathetic. It bordered on incoherent.  Then he was caught on a live mic telling Chris Christie to get on the plane and go home.  Nice!

I kept wondering why no one is paying attention to Ted Cruz.  Donald Trump has dominated the media and Marco Rubio has been the darling of Fox News. At first I thought I was the only who thought that this was because of bias at Fox News.  Then I read the following from Breitbart:

http://www.breitbart.com/big-journalism/2016/02/27/trump-effect-fox-news-channels-brand-takes-50-hit-among-republicans/

Whether or not you support Trump, FNC’s pro-Rubio/GOP Establishment bias is still as hard to swallow as the mainstream media’s left-wing bias. Bias is bias. It’s manipulative and dishonest, and no one likes to be manipulated or lied to.

I still tune into the roundtable, but now it’s for the same reason I monitor the mainstream media: to get a feel for the talking points and wishful thinking-propaganda coming from the GOP Mother Ship. In fact, for that same reason, I’m watching more Fox News than ever before. After all, my job is to expose media deception.

According to a YouGov Brand Index survey, the perception of Fox News among Republicans has hit a three-year low, “has declined by approximately 50% since January of this year.”

If Donald Trump becomes the Republican nominee then a lion’s share of the blame must fall on Fox News.  Their incompetent war on Trump just made him look bigger than life.  Their constant fawning over Marco Rubio prevented Ted Cruz, the only viable alternative to Trump, from over taking him.  Cruz may still win this, but it will only be in spite of the best efforts by Fox News.  Fair and balanced doesn’t include letting someone as unbalanced as Donald Trump become President of the United States.  I would really like to see an end to the silly season, but if an early end means Donald Trump losing to Hillary Clinton that is hardly worth the price.

In the meantime, my attitude toward Fox News is almost identical to that of Breitbart.  I no longer trust Fox News and I certainly do not trust their political pundits.  I still watch them, but less than before and only because CNN is still worse.  Baseball season can’t start soon enough.

TDM

DESPERADO

Marco Rubio followed up his assault on Donald Trump in last night’s debate with more insults this morning.  Trump soon followed with an endorsement by Chris Christie and his typical arrogant assault on Rubio.  It is pretty entertaining stuff but not exactly Presidential. Rubio is doing this because he is beyond desperate.  He has turned out to be better at this than I expected.  But it appears as though he and Donald Trump are now both appealing to the same lunatic fringe.  Who knows, this election cycle has been weird enough that this might just work.  This could hurt Trump and help Rubio.  That is what Fox News predicts, but Fox News always finds a reason for a Rubio surge.  This could also hurt Trump and help Cruz.  Ironically it could even help Trump more than anything.  Who knows?

There appears to be a cease fire between Rubio and Cruz.  They tag teamed on Donald Trump during the debate.  I suspect there was a private meeting between the Rubio and Cruz camps.  Perhaps they both realized that if they continue doing things the same way, they will both be on the sidelines watching Trump win the nomination.  It is likely that both of them realize that Donald Trump would be unacceptable as President.  They will still compete with each other, but in the meantime, both are going to take on Trump.  If someone or something does not slow down Trump they both lose.

In the meantime, Lindsey Graham went postal on both Trump and Cruz.  He even “joked” about how someone could shoot Cruz and the entire Senate would vote to acquit.  If anyone needs more evidence that Cruz is not part of the establishment look no further.  What Graham does not understand is that a lot of us long for a Republican ready, willing and able to take them on.  I am quite certain that Ted Cruz can be a nasty piece of work.  I actually find that appealing.  When you are seeking a Commander in Chief, someone who knows how to play hardball is a good option.

The Republican establishment is desperately clinging to the myth that the only Republican who can win is one who enlarges the Party tent.  It was this theory that resulted in John McCain and Mitt Romney losing to Barack Obama.  It was the theory used by the Republican Party in California that brilliantly resulted in every State Wide office going to a left wing liberal union liberal.   It is the same siren’s call that convinces them that Rubio offers the best, only, chance to beat Hillary Clinton.  They ignore the inconvenient fact that Rubio has yet to come close to beating Trump.

The establishment is terrified of Ted Cruz because they consider him to be far right of the mainstream.  They hate him because he does not even pretend to respect them.  This reminds me of the situation in France when the U.S. troops arrived in France.  All these French Generals, who had accomplished nothing but wide spread slaughter for years, insisted that the U.S. troops report to them.  General Pershing told them to pound sand.  He said he preferred not to take guidance from people who only knew how to lose.  Good advice.

TDM