THE GRAPE DEBATE

On September 26, 1960 Senator John F. Kennedy and Vice President Richard M. Nixon participated in the first Presidential debate.  The New York Times declared that on “sound points of argument” Nixon took most of the honors.   They missed the point.  Kennedy won that debate and the results changed the course of that election and ultimately history.   The reason Kennedy won was because a picture is worth a 1000 words.  The words spoken in that debate are largely forgotten, but the image of a well-tanned and healthy Kennedy contrasted sharply with a pale and wobbly Nixon.  Nixon had just recovered from the flu and his makeup artist should have been fired on the spot.

The point is that the results of that debate weren’t obvious at first, but they were very significant.  I believe the same thing is true about last night’s debate.  Joe Biden and Paul Ryan were pretty equal in terms of the actual debate.  Biden actually did a remarkable job of trying to convince people that the Obama administration record is better than it looks.   Ryan did a great job on introducing himself to the American people and he more than held his own.  When the new guy can go toe to toe with the old pro, that is a big win for the new guy.  Everyone knows the old pro will just continue to get old, but the new guy will be a major player for a long time.   But the long term impact is likely to be devastating for both Biden and Obama.  That is because the image of this debate may linger longer than people expect and Joe Biden was just plain awful.  He acted like an immature 8th grader caught on stage with an adult.  He constantly interrupted Ryan and spent much of the debate with this silly smirk on his face.  He frankly came across as an immature arrogant ass.

The moderator was obviously biased toward Biden.  That should be no surprise since Barack Obama attended her wedding and she apparently had dinner at Biden’s house earlier this year.  But ultimately, she hurt Biden by not reining him in.  She let Biden be Biden and that was awful for Biden.

Biden looked like he was off his meds.  That is why I have named this the grape debate.  One can only hope that Biden had a little too much to drink and that he is not really bi-polar.

Ultimately Biden was Biden and Ryan was Ryan and that is bad for Democrats.

TDM

PEW WHALLOP

The liberal left is going absolutely nuts over the devastating drop in poll results for Barack Obama.  The Pew report is particularly devastating.  By now everyone admits that  Obama had the worst performance in a Presidential debate by a large margin.  The following article from Andrew Sullivan in the Daily Beast is fun reading for any Republican.  If nothing else, it is vivid proof that the liberal left is incapable of handling defeat:

http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/10/did-obama-just-throw-the-entire-election-away.html

The liberal left believes that Mitt Romney won the debate because he told lies and Obama was too inept to challenge him.  For example, see the following:

Lies work when they are unrebutted live on stage. And momentum counts at this point in the election

 Sullivan got it 100% wrong.  What really happened is that the Obama campaign spent more than 200 million dollars lying about Mitt Romney.   When the real Mitt Romney walked onto that stage all those lies were exposed.

Prior to the debate, 42% of the voters were sure to vote for Obama and 43% were sure to vote for Obama.  That left 15% undecided.  But they really weren’t undecided.  They had already decided that they didn’t want Obama.  The only thing they didn’t know was whether or not they wanted Mitt Romney.  Mitt Romney didn’t need to defeat Obama in that debate, he just needed to show people that he was up to the job.  He did a lot more than that.

The liberal left knew that they only had one chance to save this failed President.  They had to convince the American people of the biggest lie of all.  They had to convince you that Mitt Romney was a fatally flawed candidate and that he was losing this election.  They had to get people to choose Obama as the lesser of two evils.   They knew Obama could never win this election, so they set about to make Romney lose this election.

Always remember that much of the main stream media is openly rooting for Obama.  That explains why the media response to the Libya crisis was to pretend that Romney made a major gaffe by daring to criticize Obama.  Liberal reporters were so desperate to destroy Romney that they missed the major story playing out right under their noses.  This is why the main stream media ran so many stories pretending that Romney‘s comment about the 47% was a game changer.  Obviously, this also explains why the main stream media accepted a reported 7.8% unemployment rate that defies gravity.

Remember all those polls showing Obama in the lead?  The main stream media desperately wanted you to believe them.  They may even have deceived themselves.  But the polls never made any sense.  It is vital to understand what poll results really mean.  The polling companies rarely tell you the raw data from their surveys.  They take the raw data, plug it into a computer program and then estimate results.  That is why you always have to look at the underlying assumptions when evaluating poll results.  All those polls showing Obama ahead were the result of turnout projections similar to 2008.  Yet no one considers that likely to occur.  The raw data in the same polls showed a very different result.  The very same polls showed Romney with a significant lead ahead among independents.  Ask any political consultant, from either party,  if Obama can win re-election without winning the independent vote and they will say no way.

You don’t have to take my word for any of this.  The following link is to an article in “The Hill:”

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/261189-pollster-pulls-out-of-fla-nc-and-va-says-obama-cant-win

Before the debate the Suffolk poll had Obama ahead 46% to 43% in Florida.  Look at the following quote from Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos:

 “A poor place to be for a couple of reasons. Number one, his ballot test, his head-to-head number was below 47 percent before the debate, and it’s very, very difficult when you have the known quantity, the incumbent, to claw your way up to 50. So that was a very, very poor place for him to be.

“So we’re looking at this polling data not only in Florida but in Virginia and North Carolina and it’s overwhelming,” Paleologos concluded.

Let me translate:  “You guys weren’t really stupid enough to think these polls were good for Obama, were you?  Let me explain, Obama’s odds of winning Florida just went from slim and none to none minus.”

The bottom line is that we should have known better than to believe the main stream media in the first place.  The bias has never been more obvious.  Why would they be reporting accurately about who is winning the election when they can’t report accurately on anything else?

TDM

THE REAL EXPLANATION

A lot of people were stunned by how badly Romney beat President Obama during the debate.  How could Romney be so good, when he was rather mediocre during the Republican primary debates?  The answer is really quite simple.  In those debates, Romney had an opponent.

TDM

LIARS LEAP

President Obama was humiliated in the great debate.  He is falling like a stone in all the polls.  Only the most naive KoolAid drinking liberal still believed that Obama had a realistic chance of re-election.  He desperately needed a miracle.

Yesterday the new jobs report was released showing only 114,000 new jobs were created.  Every economist predicted the unemployment rate would increase even higher from the current 8.1%.  And then the miracle happened.  Inexplicably the unemployment rate dropped to a stunning 7.8%, just in time to re-energize the Obama campaign.

This is just plain silly.  It took Jack Welch, former CEO of GE about 30 seconds to smell a rat.  Yet the folks at CNN are acting as if this is just routine.  They are actually reporting this as a real number.  If any of you need more evidence of the incompetence of the main stream media, look no further.  If Bush pulled something like this the main stream media would have soiled themselves on the air.

Astonishingly, no one at CNN even bothered to ask the Obama administration a really obvious question.  What happened?  Every economist knows that 114,000 new jobs won’t get it done.  How can we have less jobs than the month before and still claim that unemployment went down.  This is fanatasy land.

This is not just a lie, it is a stupid lie.  There is no way this will hold up to scrutiny.  By this evening we will know exactly how the numbers were manipulated.  The Obama administraiton should have known this.  Did they really think they could get away with this?  If the answer is yes, then they are too stupid to govern.  If the answer is no, than they are too corrupt to govern.  Your choice.

TDM

 

O BOMBA

This has to go down as one of the worst performances in the history of Presidential debates.  This was a complete and total bomb.  Perhaps David Gergen said it best.  He said that no one had ever talked to Obama like this and he didn’t know what to do.  This is the price Obama paid for having a pandering main stream media that was afraid to make him answer questions.  Obama just learned the difference between debating Whoopi Goldberg and Mitt Romney.  

Perhaps Bill Maher finally got something right.  From his twitter account:

Bill Maher@billmaher

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but Obama looks like he DOES need a teleprompter

Even Bill Maher realized that there was only one high powered executive on that stage tonight and it wasn’t Barack Obama. 

TDM

BENGHAZI BLUES

BENGHAZI BLUES (To the tune of Folsom Prison Blues)

 

I hear a train a coming

It’s rolling ‘round the bend

I ain’t seen nothing like this

Since I don’t know when

The cover-up’s unraveling

It’s getting worse each day

Soon heads will be rollin’

Somebody’s got to pay!

 

The truth is they’ve been lying

In each and every way

They thought we must be stupid

And they could have their way

But that train still keeps on coming

I hear it more each day

Soon heads will be rollin’

Somebody’s got to pay!

 

The White House sure is sweating,

The State Department too

They’ve both run out lies

They don’t know what to do

But that train still keeps on coming

I hear it more each day

Soon heads will be rollin’

Somebody’s got to pay!

 

The threat was really obvious

Getting worse every day

Our people begged for mercy,

But none was on the way

It wasn’t that important

Who needs security?

“I gave a speech in Cairo

The World’s in love with me!”

 

But this time it really matters

Our Ambassador is gone

And far too many people

Know that this was really wrong

So that train it keeps on coming

I hear it more each day

Soon heads will be rollin’

Somebody’s got to pay!

OH FILIAL

The recent polls, showing Barack Obama running away to a sweet victory have come crashing down to earth.  The latest CNN poll results follow:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/01/battle-for-presidency-remains-close-in-new-cnn-poll/

These results are consistent with other polls.  This is very bad for President Obama.  His margin has decreased and it still over-samples Democrats.  It is significant to note that this poll has Independent voters going for Romney by a 49% to 41% margin.

When you combine this with the dramatic drop in Democratic registration, particularly in swing states like Ohio, I really don’t know how any honest analyst can even pretend this is favorable for Obama.

So what happened?  The answer is “Filial Regression.”  This is a mathematical law that applies when there are unexpected results.  Let me give an example.  Suppose you toss a coin 100 times and you get 65 heads and 35 tails.  Any mathematician will tell you that the odds of getting a “heads” on the next toss remain at exactly 50/50.  Just because there was a lucky string of heads does not mean that the odds have changed.  But filial regression also comes into play.  This is a mathematical law that applies when there are abnormal results.  According to filial regression, when there are abnormal results, the most likely thing to happen in the future is a return to normal.  That means that if you toss the coin another 100 times, odds are the results will return to near normal or 50 heads and 50 tails.

There were a string of polls that did not make any sense compared to well-known data.  This is the age of computers, so we really know how many Democrats there are, how many Republicans and how many Independents.  It is pretty rare for people to change party registration over-night.  Yet that is exactly what some political pundits believed was happening.  They believed that a lot of Republicans suddenly decided they were Democrats again. Wiser people were unconvinced.  In other words, the results were obviously abnormal.  The law of filial regression is what caused me to expect the results to return to normal over the next series of polls.  That is exactly what has happened.

Don’t start celebrating a Romney victory just yet, but be comforted in knowing that the predictions of his death were more than a little premature.  Also keep this in mind.  If this poll is right about Romney winning among Independents 49% to 41%, then it is the Obama campaign that should be experiencing night sweats.

TDM

A GOMER PYLE MOMENT!

One of my favorite TV moments involved a scene where Gomer Pyle and Sergeant Carter were trapped with a ticking bomb.  They finally got down to the last second and a decision had to be made.  There were two wires.  One wire was red and one was green.  Sergeant Carter asked Gomer which wire he would cut.  Gomer finally said he would cut the red wire.  Sergeant Carter immediately reached over the cut the green wire.  The bomb was disarmed.  Gomer asked the Sergeant why he bothered asking him which wire to cut.  Sergeant Carter replied:  “because the only thing I was sure about was that you would be wrong.”

 All those swing state polls are showing about 3 to 5 percent more Democrats and significantly less Independents.  Most of these polls, including the swing state polls, are showing Independents leaning strongly toward Romney.   This is the equivalent of a weather reporter predicting massive floods because of the lack of rain.

The main stream media has been wrong on almost every major story for months.  They are brilliant at drawing the wrong conclusion with deadly accuracy.  This is particularly apparently when they are reporting anything about Barack Obama.  That leads me to the same conclusion as Sergeant Carter.   The only thing I know for sure is that they are wrong.

TDM.

THE PUEBLO PARALLEL

On January 23, 1968, the USS Pueblo was boarded by the North Koreans.  The ship was confiscated and crew members were held hostage. Some wondered how a U.S. intelligence ship could be captured by a North Korean sub-chaser and three torpedo boats.  The answer, unfortunately, is that we had another administration that sent people into hostile territory with totally inadequate security.

The Pueblo did have guns and ammunition, but the ammunition was stored below deck, the machine guns were unmanned and they were wrapped in cold weather tarpaulins. 

The rules of engagement were:

(…) Defensive armament (machine guns) should be stowed or covered in such manner so that it does not cause unusual interest by surveyed units. It should be used only in the event of a threat to survival (…)

The American people were never told the truth about the USS Pueblo.  The loss of this ship was a devastating blow to our national security.  I was working for the NSA at the time, and I heard people say that this would set our intelligence efforts back 50 years.  The most dangerous secret held by any intelligence community is to reveal what we know about the other side.  I personally doubt that Commander Lloyd Bucher knew the true value of that ship.  Access to intelligence is granted on a need-to-know basis, and it’s likely a majority of the crew on that ship did not know.  That would be consistent with my own experience, where the pilot of the aircraft flying us over enemy territory was not cleared to know anything about our activities in the back of the plane.  If he did know, he probably would have risked losing the entire crew before surrendering that ship.  Fortunately, in the case of the USS Pueblo, we did get these people back.

There are some people who do know the truth about the USS Pueblo.  The following link provides a hint:

http://www.usspueblo.org/Aftermath/NSA_Museum.html

For those who want to know the whole story, following is a link to an official NSA report on the event that was only released in 2010:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/32745614/National-Security-Agency-The-capture-of-the-USS-Pueblo-and-its-Effect-on-SIGINT-operations

The conclusion in this report is jaw dropping:

..the compromise, at least to the North Koreans, of information concerning the cryptologic community collection, processing and reporting operations and techniques on a world-wide basis is without precedent in the U.S. cryptologic history.

This is really the first time I have ever discussed what I knew about the Pueblo incident, because this was so highly classified.  I am only writing this limited amount now because the full NSA report has been released.

The assault on our Consulate in Libya has the potential to be almost as damaging.  The Obama administration already compromised National Security in its rush to exploit the death of Osama bin Laden.  If they had just kept this quiet for even a few days they might have rolled up al Qaeda operatives all over the world.  Just think about it.  They captured Osama bin Laden’s computers and his documents intact.  It was a priceless opportunity to harvest this information before al Qaeda even knew we had it.  Instead, the President of the United States couldn’t wait to rush to the nearest microphone and spike the football.

But if the following article is accurate, that may pale in comparison to the damage done by our failure to provide adequate security for the Consulate in Benghazi.  Although the death of a U.S. Ambassador is a real tragedy, we lost a lot more than that.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/9563831/US-consulate-attack-in-Benghazi-disrupted-major-intelligence-operation.html

We don’t know what documents were compromised.  We don’t know what cryptologic devices and codes were compromised.  There are already reports that the terrorists got lists containing our “friends” all over Libya.  Odds are many of those friends are now desperately trying to stay alive.  One will note that they have basically evacuated our Embassy in Tripoli.  Part of the reason may be that our entire intelligence operation in Libya was compromised.

In some ways, the Obama administration was extremely lucky.  There was a second attack, an apparent ambush, probably designed to capture critical personnel.  According to this report 30 “individuals” were rushed out of Libya and spread to hidden locations all over Europe.  It sure looks like we came very close to losing another group of highly trained intelligence operatives, like we did during the Pueblo incident.  Yet it does not appear as though the administration even bothered to secure the Consulate after the event.  A CNN reporter casually walked through the debris and found the Ambassador’s personal diary.  It doesn’t get any worse than that.

This is far worse than Watergate.  In Watergate the White House was covering up an idiotic attempt to spy on the DNC.   Perhaps the real question is why did anyone care?  Is there anyone naïve enough to think that both political parties aren’t spying on each other?  I mean Democrats got caught monitoring Newt Gingrich’s cell phone and Clinton allegedly let the NSA eavesdrop on Strom Thurmond.  But this isn’t about politics, it is about national security.  It is about an ongoing effort to stop al Qaeda.  This effort may have been seriously compromised by the gross negligence of this administration. 

There is zero chance we will learn the full truth about this disaster before the election.  We didn’t learn the full truth about the Pueblo for 42 years.  But one would hope that somehow enough of the story will reach sufficient people to eliminate the risk of re-electing Barack Obama. 

TDM