Steven Point, Wisconsin is in the middle of Wisconsin. We lived there while I was attending the University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point. It is a very cold place during the winter. The closest TV station was in Wausau, which is not exactly a major media market. As a result, there were times when the TV reporters where so bad they became fun to watch. We watched the entire career of one particular man, we liked to call Zeb. We figured he must be related to the owner of the station. He started in commercials. They were horrible. They tried to make him a reporter, but he was awful. Then, in an act of desperation, they made him the weather man. He failed at that too, because he couldn’t remember the names of the states. He would point at a state and then start to stutter in a desperate attempt to come up with the name and finally say: “over here.” Another weatherman was discussing a major thunderstorm that had struck the area. He said that there were thousands of homes without power tonight so a lot of people were probably watching him by candle light. About two minutes later, after a commercial break, he came back on the air and said he realized he had said something stupid and please stop calling. Then there was the time one of the anchors starting talking but there was no sound. He got this shocked look on his face and then literally put his hands in a T sign, apparently asking for a time out. He was back, after another commercial, explaining that this is what happens when you forget your microphone. But our favorite show was “Fabiano’s Music Variety Show.” Fabiano owned a music store in Wausau so he would put on a show with his “star” pupils. Some of them had been playing for several weeks. He wore a shark skin suit and tried to mimic Lawrence Welk. It was just plain awful, but brilliantly awful and we laughed so hard we had tears running down our face. As you can tell, you have to find your entertainment where you can when you live in a place like Stevens Point.

I never dreamed that I would ever find TV so entertaining again, until I watched the MSM meltdown before, during and after this election. The MSM has become so bad it is starting to resemble a bad SNL skit. You can’t make this stuff up. They convinced themselves that the mythical monster they call Donald Trump actually exists in the real world. They couldn’t believe that anyone was seriously considering a vote for Donald Trump.

The following compilation explains everything. We start will all the people who were so certain that Donald Trump could not possibly win:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zT0Rjc6jKCg

Now, the response when liberals realize they have lost. Note these are liberals, so please be prepared to be offended by the language:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FliGdEGBoIw

Liberals still do not get it. They do not understand something really important. Donald Trump is something they cannot comprehend. He is a real person who says what he means. This reminds me of “All in the Family.” Liberals in Hollywood were very concerned that there would be a huge backlash because “Archie Bunker” was the polar opposite of being politically correct. Instead the show became extremely popular because people loved the honesty. Archie Bunker said the things that people believed but were afraid to say. Well, Archie Bunker is going to be the next President of the United States and if nothing else, it is going to be entertaining.

TDM

It turns out that Newsweek published a special “Madame President” souvenir edition and shipped it out to stores ahead of the election.  They didn’t bother to print a “Mr. Trump Goes to Washington” souvenir edition because all the pundits said Hillary had this all locked up.  Oops.

Some will recall that I predicted that Democrats would turn on Hillary Clinton if she lost this election.  The following article in the New York Post shows that this has already happened:

http://nypost.com/2016/11/10/defeat-likely-spells-the-end-of-clinton-dynasty/

This article quotes Democratic insiders.  All agree that they are done with anything Clinton.  Tuesday morning, the world was at their beck and call.  Today, the world does not care.  The problem for the Clintons is that deep down they were always and only about themselves.  It was all about their personal power.  That power is completely gone and so are they.

Last night Bill O’Reilly was brutally blunt about Hillary Clinton.  He said she is a liar and good riddance.  O’Reilly did not say that before the election.  He was afraid to say that before the election.  There are a lot of other people who have secretly despised but feared the Clinton’s for decades. Hillary did shatter a glass ceiling, but not the one she expected.  She shattered the Clinton protective shield and I predict that within a very short period of time we will all be stunned by the vile and vitriol that surfaces.

The person likely to pay the highest price is Chelsea Clinton:

“How’s Chelsea going to live?” another insider asked The Post. “Is she going to give speeches, go on boards? No one wants her anymore . . . You think NBC’s going to hire her now? Because she’s good on camera? Give me a break.”

Right now the MSM is in full meltdown because they clearly believed the nonsense they were reporting about Donald Trump.  They took Donald Trump’s disregard of political correctness and deemed it the equivalence of the Nazi regime.  This is clear evidence that the MSM cannot distinguish between impolite honesty and tyranny. While Donald is no saint and at times he has said things that are indefensible in a lot of other cases he was merely speaking an inconvenient truth that liberals cannot or will not understand. He is not anti-Hispanic but he understands the problem with the people flooding across our border.  He is not anti-Muslim but he understands the threat from ISIS type terrorists trying to use the flood of refugees to infiltrate our country.  He is not anti-Black but he understands the problem of black on black crime and he understands that law and order protects everyone.

We are about to learn another inconvenient truth.  There are many personal stories about Donald Trump.  They frequently involve acts of spontaneous kindness and generosity.  What you don’t hear are stories about him erupting in anger, throwing things and stomping on people when they are down.  You don’t hear stories of people who dared to oppose Donald Trump conveniently dying under strange and bizarre circumstances.  Those stories are out there, and they are about to become public, but they will be about Hillary Clinton not Donald Trump.  I think the lid has been lifted off the sewer and before Donald Trump even takes the oath of office a lot of people are going to realize that this country just dodged a very big bullet.

TDM

Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney in 2012 because 90% of Democrats voted for Obama and Democratic turnout was 9% higher than Republican turnout.  It was the ninety and nine that defeated Mitt Romney.  The question is whether the ninety and nine will show up this year.

All of the pundits are predicting voter turnout to be Democrat 37%, Republican 29 to 30% and Independent 33%.  The Denver Post just reported on early voting in Denver:

http://www.denverpost.com/2016/11/07/purple-state-memo-republicans-hold-lead-in-early-voting-entering-election-day/

“The latest early voting numbers released Monday morning show registered Republicans cast 652,380 ballots compared to 645,020 registered Democrats — a 7,360 vote GOP advantage. The breakdown looks like this: 35.2 percent Republican, 34.8 percent Democrat and 28.5 percent unaffiliated.”

The Clinton campaign thought they were safely ahead in Colorado. These results have to be a major shock.  Voter turnout is way up, but unlike 2012 it is not just Democrats showing up at the polls.  If this percentage holds up nationwide, the ninety and nine turns into the ninety and none and Trump wins.

TDM

We all know about Halley’s Comet. It shows up after length absences, puts on a spectacular display and accomplishes nothing. In this election James Comey has surfaced three times. The first time he said that Hillary lied, that she sent classified information in an unauthorized private server and that she was extremely careless with classified information. He also said he did not think that any reasonable prosecutor (currently working for Loretta Lynch) would prosecute her. Democrats cheered considering the original statement the equivalent of an acquittal. It wasn’t, it a public condemnation just short of an indictment. Republicans should have cheered Comey instead they dumped on him and ironically reinforced the myth that he had exonerated Hillary. Then, two weeks ago, he said he was re-opening the investigation because they discovered e-mails on Anthony Weiner’s lap top computer. Today he said that after reviewing those e-mail, he wasn’t going to change the conclusion he made previously. In other words, we are back to square one.

Democrats, who love Comey before they hated him, love him again. Republicans, who hated Comey, before they loved him, hate him again. Democrats think that Comey cleared, Clinton, again and that this will help her again. Republicans think Comey, who cleared Hillary, then charged Hillary, just cleared her again. All of them are wrong.

Now some are assuming that either President Obama or Loretta Lynch intimidated Comey into making this meaningless statement in a desperate attempt to help Hillary. They may be right about that. Comey was certainly under pressure from all sides to say something. He said nothing, but everyone will assume it is significant. In reality it is only significant in that it is not significant.

Both Democrats and Republicans think this will help Hillary. They could be very wrong about that. I don’t see how this helps Hillary at all. The only people who will think this clears Hillary are those who were already willing to ignore the obvious and assume the ridiculous. But what this did accomplish was to make Hillary’s e-mails the primary topic of conversation 24 hours before the election. That is bad news by Hillary, because there is no good answer about her e-mails and if people are talking about that it hurts her. In many ways it is similar to how Trump was hurt when the conversation was about whether he did or did not sexually abuse women. Even if the Trump campaign was able to discredit every female accuser, which they came close to doing, it didn’t matter. As long as the topic was about Trump and the way he treated women he was losing.

We are down to this. If Democrats show up like they did in 2012, at a much higher rate than Republicans, if Blacks vote 90% plus for Hillary, if Hispanics vote 70% plus for Hillary, if women vote 55% to 35% for Hillary, then she wins.   Actually the polls assume all of this and they are still considering this a tie. If it is remarkably different that this, Trump rolls the table. No one really knows. The polls all use obsolete technology and unverified assumptions. The same technology and assumptions were used in England to predict the Brexit vote. Even on election night, after look at the exit polls, the no on Brexit folks were pouring the champagne and celebrating. When the votes were actually counted, Brexit won by a huge margin and Prime Minister David Cameron when was celebrating to resigning. It is going to be an interesting and life changing 36 hours.

TDM

The following report from CNN shows what is happening with early voting. This is very bad news for Hillary Clinton. CNN is trying to spin this in the most possible way for Hillary, but they are ignoring the obvious.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/01/politics/early-voting-update-black-vote-decreasing/index.html

In every state, there are more Republican early ballots than in 2012. The only state that looks good for Hillary is Nevada. Hillary may be ahead in Colorado, but as more ballots are counted, the Democratic lead is shrinking. The bottom line is this; there is zero evidence of a Hillary wave and a lot of hints at a Trump wave.

The following article from Real Clear Politics is interesting:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/11/02/early_voting_a_poor_predictor_of_final_results.html

The title is why early voting results aren’t predictive of final results. He is right about that, but what he is really saying is that Democrats are the ones who assume early voting always helps them and this year that ain’t happening. All of the polls showing Hillary ahead or even close were relying on high Democratic turnout and much of the advantage was expected to come during early voting.

No poll is ever completely accurate and we will not know anything until votes are counted Tuesday night. What we can report is that, so far, the anticipated wave of Democratic voters hasn’t shown up yet.

One more thing, Trump is starting to look more relaxed while Hillary seems to be losing it. According to the Daily Mail, she started screaming at protestors yesterday:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3896014/Hillary-unloads-Trump-s-conspiracy-theories-goes-vision-behavior-supporters-effort-goat.html

Real Clear Politics has released a new Electoral Map and incredibly it shows Trump in the lead. The article and the map are below:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

Almost every poll shows Trump surging and Hillary sinking. Since Republican states are colored red and Democratic states are colored blue, it is really easy to see a massive Red Tide developing.

TDM

If you want to evaluate poll results, it is important to look at the data, not the headline. For example today’s IDB/TIPP Presidential Poll shows a virtual tie, with Clinton 45% and Trump 44%. But you should not assume that this means they called 1000 people and 450 chose Clinton and 440 chose Trump. That is not what happened at all. They take the results and then adjust them for expected turnout.

Here are some results in the same poll that should be terrifying the Clinton camp.

Preference by Party:

…………………………………..  Clinton                  Trump

Democrats                          87%                          5%

Republicans                          4%                        87%

Independents                     33%                        48%

Black                                  86%                        5%

Hispanic                             48%                        33%

Single Women                    60%                        28%

Married Women                 43%                        46%

Men                                   38%                        50%

Female                              50%                        39%

If turnout matches voter registration according to Gallop, it will be 30% Democrat, 30% Republican and 40% Independent. Clinton and Trump tie among people registered as Republicans or Democrats. Trump wins by 16 points among independents.   This means that the only way this race looks close is assuming that Democrats show up at the polls in much higher numbers than Republicans.

Now factor in this. Hillary supporters are demoralized. Only the paid Democratic talking heads are pretending she has a positive agenda. They are just ‘xplaining’ why we should believe them rather than our lying eyes. Donald Trump supporters, on the other hand, have been saying they think they are winning. After looking at the above data, it is obvious that they have an argument.

As for early voting, in Florida alone Blacks have so far made up 15% of the early vote. By this time in 2012, they were at 25%.

So far, early voting every where is about as expected. People who admit who they voted for are showing Clinton with a 54% to 41% edge. Trump leads 50% to 39% among those looking to vote on Election Day. Remember that exit polls are notoriously inaccurate because they ALWAYS overstate the Democratic vote. That is why CNN thought Gore was winning in 2000 and they thought Kerry was winning in 2004.

There is more, 77% of Independents who lean Democrat support Hillary while 80% of Independents who lean Republican support Trump. Those who don’t lean toward either party support Trump 53% to 28%.

If these numbers are accurate, Hillary only wins if there is a sudden surge of Democratic voters or the Democrats find a way to steal millions of votes. Democrats are very good at winning in big cities where Democratic machines operate things, but they can’t manipulate the whole country. That is why only 7 states are current controlled by Democrats.

If there is a bombshell aimed at Donald Trump, Democrats better deliver it sooner rather than later.

TDM

President Obama personally threw Hillary Clinton under the bus. He sent John Earnest out to say that he does not believe FBI Director James Comey is secretly trying to influence the election outcome.

White House spokesman Josh Earnest said that the Administration will neither defend nor criticize Comey’s decision to inform Congress about the new Hillary Clinton-related emails. He added that the White House has no recommendations for Comey over what information to give to the public, regarding the Clinton-related email probe.

Earnest said the White House has no independent knowledge as to why Comey decided to send Congress a letter about the emails. He added that the president believes the FBI director is a man of integrity and good character.

The fact that Obama send Earnest out to deliver this message is significant. At a minimum, this will have a devastating impact on black support for Hillary Clinton. I have always suspected that the Obama’s despise the Clintons. I was a little surprised that Michelle Obama was campaigning with Hillary. Then I noticed something significant. It was Hillary who introduced Michelle. She must have been absolutely desperate to do that. My hunch is that the Clinton campaign polling with regard to black voters is beyond bad. Odds are Michelle Obama extracted a very high price for this charade. But that was so yesterday, or at least so before black Friday. I will be extremely surprised to see any more Michelle Obama appearances on behalf of Hillary Clinton. As JFK once said, “victory has 1,000 fathers but defeat is an orphan.”

Hillary may be heading toward a world class collapse in the polls. She will almost certainly launch a kamakazi attack on Donald Trump, trying desperately to make him look even worse. This is unlikely to work and will just provide further proof that Hillary is beyond desperate. There are even rumors she is going to try and raise the “daisy” commercial used by LBJ against Barry Goldwater in 1964. But there is a problem. That commercial didn’t actually work. Goldwater was gaining in the polls until Johnson used a minor incident regarding two U.S. destroyers to justify a full scale war against North Vietnam. Obama isn’t likely to start a war to save Hillary.

Now the MSM is trying to convince us that Hillary has already won because of early voting. Here is the article from the New York Times:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/31/us/politics/early-voting-trump-clinton.html?_r=0

If you actually look at the data, it is far from certain that the early voting favors Hillary at all.

Republicans are leading Democrats in Florida. Democrats are counting on Hispanic voters to go all in on Hillary.

Democrats have a lead in early voting in North Carolina, but they are way behind where they were in 2012 and Republicans are running ahead of 2012.

 Black voter turnout is down 17%.

The MSM is trying to convince themselves that Hillary can still win this. Yet the polling results today paint a very different picture. According to several polls at least 30% of likely voters have said they are less likely to vote for Clinton because of this scandal. This is nothing short of catastrophic. Let’s assume that Hillary Clinton is currently leading Trump 55% to 45%. Let’s assume that she was leading expected voters 55% to 45%. No one is claiming Hillary is that far ahead. Let’s assume that none of the people who now refuse to vote for Hillary switch to Trump. The only impact is that 30% of the people planning on voting for Hillary don’t vote. The result would be that Trump wins by a significant margin, about 52% to 48%. That is close to the worst case for Trump and he still wins easily.

If 30% of expected voters do switch to Trump, he wins by about 58% to 42%. If the election was really close, prior to this change, then Trump wins by about 60% to 40%. It is quite simple. If 30% of voters are really less likely to vote for Hillary, she is going to lose in a landslide and she will take a ton of down ticket Democrats with her. Expect Democrats to panic. The Clinton campaign will throw the kitchen sink at Trump and down ticket Democrats will be desperately trying to leave a rapidly sinking ship.

TDM

The Clintons know all about last minute political prosecutions.  Iran Contra Special Prosecutor Lawrence Walsh indicted Casper Weinberger. This is quite possibly the reason Bill Clinton won that election:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/billwhalen/2016/10/29/before-anyone-whines-about-comey-and-clinton-try-revisiting-weinberger-and-walsh/2/#4f008f347ac9

Read the indictment against Casper Weinberger:

Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger on one count of false statement when he told Congress back in 1987 that he’d keep regular notes about his comings and going while running the Pentagon.

Compare this to Hillary destroying 33,000 e-mails. The charge against Weinberger was ridiculous and was dismissed by a judge shortly after the election. But the damage had been done. Bill Clinton was elected President.

In 2000 George W. Bush was leading Al Gore and coasting to an easy win. The MSM exploded over a DUI charge by Bush from decades earlier. It shouldn’t have mattered, but it did and Bush barely beat Al Gore.

Democrats are still playing politics with ridiculous indictments of Republicans. Rick Perry was indicted during the Republican primaries. Tom Delay was indicted when he was Majority Leader in the House. Both indictments were dismissed as totally without merit, but only after serious damage to their political careers.

Now, when it is Hillary Clinton on the receiving end, Democrats are suddenly worried about politically motivated prosecution. But, so far, there is zero evidence that Republicans were even involved. On the other hand, it is clear that Loretta Lynch and others were definitely trying to suppress the investigation. This all happened because an FBI team in New York was investigating Anthony Weiner after the Daily Mail reported he was sexting with a 15 year old girl. They obtained a warrant to seize his laptop and search for child pornography. They quickly found thousands of e-mails involving Huma Abedin. These e-mails were sent to and from Hillary Clinton’s private server. The FBI already knows that, they just don’t know what is on those e-mails. Even CNN has figured out that this is a really big deal.

The investigators saw enough of the emails to determine that they appeared pertinent to the previously completed investigation and that they may be emails not previously reviewed.

Hillary has responded by attacking Comey. That is a huge mistake. It just focuses more attention on the story itself. If Hillary is this angry, this must be really bad.

Huma Abedin has been shown the door and Hillary has moved on. Odds are that Huma is starting to feel very alone and abandoned. She is now apparently holed up with her mother and her sister. Her mother’s name is Saleha S. Mahmood Abedin her sister’s name is Heba A Khaled (Khaled). Go ahead; look up who is now providing counsel and advice to Huma Abedin.

You will be shocked to learn that all of this is public knowledge. But you probably don’t know any of this because no one cared. Michelle Bachmann tried to warn us, but she was silenced with the help of John McCain who could not understand the potential for a problem. The Washington Post pointed out why Michelle Bachmann was so far out of line:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/michele-bachmanns-baseless-attack-on-huma-abedin/2012/07/19/gJQAFhkiwW_story.html?utm_term=.849c08472ad3

If you think this problem is bad now, what if Michelle Bachmann was right?

TDM

It was fun watching CNN respond to the FBI shocking announcement that they have reopened the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s private server.  At first they were in a state of shock and actually reported on this objectively.  Within an hour, they brought in a panel of experts and desperately tried to change the story to whether or not Director Comey should have sent that letter.  Good luck with that.  This is a bomb and is almost certain to end the slim chance Hillary had at getting elected President of the United States.

I know that many of you reading this have been depressed by the talking heads in both parties saying that Hillary was way ahead in the polls and certain to win.  The reality is that this election was extremely close before this bombshell.  The only polls that showed Hillary with a double digit lead were conducted by the mainstream media and most of them over sampled Democrats.  Actually, they did more than that.  They took the data and adjusted it for “expected voter turnout.”  Let me translate that.  They were predicting that 37% of voters would be Democrat and 29% would be Republican.  This is based on what happened in 2008 and 2012.  But in 2008 and 2012 black voters turned out in record numbers and almost all of them voted for Barack Obama.  In 2008 he got 96% of the black vote.  In 2012 he got 93% of the black vote.  It is insane to expect that to happen this year, but that is exactly the turnout model that the pundits were using.  This is the year of Colin Kaepernick and blacks are more likely to sit down and refuse to participate than they are to vote in droves.

Gallop measures this every week and it consistently shows close to an even split between Republicans and Democrats at about 30%.  Democrats may have a 2 or 3 point advantage, but no more than that.  Independents now represent about 40% of the voters.  Every poll, before weighting, shows similar results.  Hillary gets about 40% and Trump gets about 40%.  Approximately 60% of the voters think Donald Trump would be the worst possible choice as President.  Approximately 60% of the voters think Hillary Clinton would be the worst possible choice as President.  The reality is that in 11 days voters will have to decide between two terrible choices.  Odds are they won’t vote for anyone, they will vote against the person they fear the most.

With this FBI announcement, Hillary Clinton sealed the deal. She has no acceptable answer for this.  What little credibility she had was just shredded.  Her news conference was so bad that even Anderson Cooper had to note that she didn’t actually answer any questions. Jeffery Tobin, in a rare moment of honestly, said that “if” Hillary was elected President there would be a demand for a special prosecutor to investigate this. In a race to the bottom, with the choice between two evils, Hillary just won. One reason this is so devastating is that it is so obviously true.

Unless Democrats come up with an even bigger bomb regarding Donald Trump, this is over.  Odds are the polls that come out Monday will be stunningly bad for Hillary.  Yes, a lot of people are stupid, but not that stupid.  Don’t be surprised to see a lot of Democrats throw Hillary Clinton under the bus next week in a desperate and probably fruitless attempt to distance them from disaster.  It’s a beautiful thing.

TDM

Last night I watched Megyn Kelly and she was clearly on a mission to smear Trump with the latest sex scandal allegations. She started with Mike Pence, who did not rise to the bait but who was clearly annoyed at her focus on this subject and who was somewhat defensive. Then she pulled this on Newt Gingrich and the result was explosive. The video is below:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/25/you-are-fascinated-with-sex-that-megyn-kelly-newt-gingrich-showdown-was-one-for-the-ages/

This is exactly the response needed and it was delivered brilliantly. Gingrich, who is hardly a saint, nailed it when he said, correctly, that Megyn Kelly was allowing the alleged sexual misconduct by Donald Trump to become the focal point of her coverage. He then turned it around by daring Megyn to call Bill Clinton a sexual predator.

This is exactly how Donald Trump can win this election. Not by threatening to sue the women who are making these accusations. That just makes him look defensive. He can win by pointing out what is beyond obvious. The MSM only get upset about this stuff when a Republican does it. They ignore similar, and in the case of Bill Clinton, worse behavior by Democrats. No one is excusing this behavior, but this is not exactly unusual when dealing with rich powerful men.

I think a lot of people are going to watch this video, which is pretty fun to watch, and say: “right on Newt, about time.”

During the 2012 primary campaign, Newt had a moment like this that totally turned around the election, for a while. This time he did it with less than two weeks before the flag goes up and it has the potential to change everything. The reality is that at least some of the allegations against Trump are probably true, but it is obvious that this is a smear campaign fueled by the Clinton Campaign and the MSM in a desperate attempt to avoid reporting on Hillary. If that changes, everything changes.

I think it will change, because I think the MSM will start trying to ‘xplain’ why Newt got this wrong and in doing so, they will be making his point.

TDM