Virtually every Democrat and their supporters in the MSM is arguing that declaring ObamaCare (ACA) unconstitutional would take health insurance away from 180 million people. They all predict that  Amy Coney Barrett (ACB) will be the deciding vote necessary to overturn ACA.

None of this is true. It is a bald-faced lie. If the ACA is overturned, no one will lose health insurance. That is because they are insured by policies that will remain in effect.  In addition, there is an assumption that ACB would be the crucial tie breaking vote. That is absurd. If she is not on the court, there are three options.

1. ACA will be overturned. In that case it would require a five to three vote, where Judge Roberts would vote to overturn with the support of the conservative judges on the court. If that happens, the ACA is overturned.
2. It will be a tie vote, where Roberts votes with the liberal judges resulting in a tie. If that happens the decision made by the lower courts takes effect. If that happens, the ACA is overturned.
3. Some of the conservative judges will join with Roberts to preserve ACA. In that case ACA would continue, probably with some restrictions.

If ACB joins the court and she votes with the majority that just means a 6–3 vs 5-4 decision.  If there is a tie vote, and ACB and concurs with the conservative judges, resulting in a 5-4 decision, which will have the exact same result as scenario 2 above. If ACB joins the liberal judges and Roberts to keep ACA, then the ACA will be upheld.

The result is that if ACB joins the court there is zero chance she will be the deciding vote to overturn ACA. She could, however, be the deciding vote to uphold ACA. In other words, this is not only a big lie, it is incredibly stupid. One would think that at least one Democratic Senator would figure this out or that one major reporter in the mainstream media would get it. However, only Brett Hume from Fox News has pointed out the obvious. Predictably, this is ignored by everyone else.

The result is that for the next 14 days, we will see a massive amount of coverage, trying to terrify people, based on a bald-faced lie that is totally unsupported by any evidence or facts. That, of course, will not stop the usual suspects from arrogantly lecturing the rest of us while either ignoring or failing to acknowledge what is patently obvious. Sadly, this is not only expected, it is increasingly typical.

TDM

On November 2016 I published a blog titled: “THE REAL POLLING RESULTS.” https://scotshonor.com/?p=3509 . I reached the following conclusion.

“If these numbers are accurate, Hillary only wins if there is a sudden surge of Democratic voters or the Democrats find a way to steal millions of votes. Democrats are very good at winning in big cities where Democratic machines operate things, but they can’t manipulate the whole country.”

Election day 2016 was terrifying. It was hard to be optimistic when there had been so many previous disappointments. On election day, pundits were still giving Hillary a 90% chance of getting elected. One election night the MSM still thought Hillary would win, until it became undeniable that she had lost.

The data I looked at in 2016 was voter turnout between 2008 and 2016. This is well documented. After each election, it is easy to see how many Democrats, Independents and Republicans showed up to vote. It is also easy to see how many blacks and Hispanics voted. In 2008 Democrats, blacks and Hispanics showed up in droves. But for the period from 2008 to 2016 that changed dramatically. In every election, everywhere the turnout was quite different than it was in 2008.

In 2016 the people who turned out for Obama did not turn out for Hillary. I also looked at Gallup voter registration data. By 2016 that had changed dramatically. Then as now, it is was about 30% Democrat, 30% Republican and 40% independent.

Every poll shows Trump winning among independents. So, once again, unless there is a sudden surge of Democratic voters or Democrats find a way to steal millions of votes, Trump coasts to re-election.

A lot of things have changed since 2016, most of which favor Trump. While Hillary drew mediocre crowds in 2016, Trump was drawing enormous crowds. Hillary did draw a huge crowd on November 7, 2016, but that was because that event included performances by Bon Jovi and Bruce Springsteen. In addition, Michelle and Barrack Obama showed up. Otherwise Hillary drew small and relatively unenthusiastic crowds.

This year Biden isn’t drawing any crowds. Mike Pence spoke to about 4,000 people yesterday and that was a bigger attendance than all the Biden rallies, combined. Trump has returned to the campaign trail and he will draw enormous crowds wherever he does. Biden is speaking to an empty room, criticizing Trump for returning to the campaign trail.

No one knows how the massive vote by mail campaign will impact this election. Keep in mind that this varies greatly by state. In California they just mailed a ballot to every registered voter. In many other states, you must request an absentee ballot. Even in California, this may not work out as expected. The reason is because of two things, a bar code and a signature. Previously in California you could just show up and vote and no one checked any ID. In places like Orange County there was literally vote harvesting by well-organized Democrats. This year ballots mailed in are automatically scanned for two things. First, they scan for the bar code. Every ballot has a unique bar code. Then they scan the signature and match the signature on record for that bar code. The computer system has signature recognizing software and will reject signatures that look obviously incorrect.

Where do they find that signature, you may ask? https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/article246338640.html

“The comparison signature could be a person’s driver license signature, or their initial registration application, or any of a handful of other documents over time that voters sign and that are on file, including more recent ballot votes, or the change of address form the voter may have filled out the last time they moved.”

Well, glory be! if you have a real ID drivers’ license, they check that first. If you have a real ID drivers’ license in California, the database knows if you are a U.S. citizen. They check the most recent document. For the first time every vote in California will be documented on a database and the signatures will be matched. It would be naïve to think this only benefits Democrats.

Many are predicting no results on election night. That is certainly possible, we still don’t really know who won the Democratic caucuses in Iowa. There are also elections in New York and New Jersey where the results are still in doubt. Keep in mind that these are Democratic districts, so this is more evidence of incompetence than bias. But a lot of people are going to show up on November 3 and vote in person. Others will vote by mail, but not necessarily for Joe Biden. Even in California results may come in surprisingly fast, because each ballot is counted when it is scanned. It could possibly be faster than in previous elections.

So, we are close to showtime. And all that really matters, is who shows up. My prediction is very simple. The candidate who can draw thousands of people willing to drive long distances to wait outside in long lines just to get a glimpse of his shadow is the candidate most likely to see the same people show up to vote. Likewise, the candidate who shows up to extremely sparse crowds would be naïve to think that secretly millions of people are desperate to vote for him.

Just as in every other election, it is the turnout that matters. The only real question is whether Democrats can steal enough votes to make up the difference. I question whether the same Democrats, famous for mismanagement, are remotely capable of pulling that off, at least not nationally.

TDM

Do you trust the MSM? Are you terrified about climate change? Are you in favor of eliminating fossil fuels? Do you want a repeal of the Trump tax cuts? Do you want to see more Supreme Court justices like Ginsburg, Sotomayor or Kagin? Do you want more liberal judges added to the Supreme Court until they outnumber conservatives? Do you want to make D.C. a state? Do you want to defund the police? Do you want to see another nationwide shut down?  Do you want Medicare for all? Do you want to have a nationwide requirement to wear a mask? Do you support people protesting and rioting every time a police officer shoots a black person, without regard to the facts? Do you want Joe Biden to be the Commander in Chief during a confrontation with Iran, China, Russia, North Korea, or anyone else? Do you think Kamala Harris is capable of being President of the United States?

If you answered yes to any of the above, you are probably a Democrat. Approximately 30% of the country is currently registered as a Democrat. They trust the news 65% of the time. If you listen to the MSM and the polls conducted by them, then most Americans believe all the above. They are prepared to vote for Joe Biden in a potential landslide. You can trust them because they absolutely nailed it during the 2016 election.

However, a couple of things might give you pause. Like the fact that the recent Biden-Harris joint appearance was in front of about 8 people. Even then, with hand-picked reporters, one of them asked Joe if he was going to stack the Supreme Court and he said you’ll have to wait until after the election. Trump will guest host with Rush Limbaugh today and may just reach about 30 million people. He will start campaigning again next week and he will draw enormous crowds who will wait in line for days just to catch a glimpse of his shadow. All over the country there are Trump parades, including boat parades, organized spontaneously by Trump supporters. When Biden does show up, anywhere, he usually draws more Trump supporters than Biden supporters. Trump will grin and say: “I survived COVID and so can you.” Joe will continue hiding behind his mask. Are you imagining this or is this real?

When Biden puts on a virtual event, he draws a miniscule audience. That is why his campaign was truly shocked when Trump rejected the virtual town hall. No Trump, no audience. Biden can put on his own Town Hall, but who will be watching? Would you want to pay for advertising for that event? Wanna bet that ABC is already begging for a change in the rules so that Trump will show up. They may hate Trump, but they love making money.

You own a restaurant or a bar or a barbershop or a nail salon or you work for someone else who owns this type of small business. If Joe Biden is elected President, what are the odds of you still being in business or even having a job in six months. If Biden is elected when do you think you can attend a sporting event again? 2021? 2022? When will you be able to go to church, or a concert or even a movie?  How long before you can stop wearing a mask?

You see the pictures of the rioting all over the country. Now spreading to the suburbs. Soon coming to a place near you. Police are standing down, because if they injure someone it is the police who will be prosecuted. You go to buy a gun. Then you realize that Biden is going to put Beto O’Rourke as his gun control czar. Soon, no one will have guns, except criminals. Criminals will always have guns because they don’t care if they are legal or not. But don’t worry, Biden will protect you!

Democrats want to get rid of gas fueled cars by 2035. How are they going to do that? One way is to discourage people from driving gas cars. Here’s an idea. Let’s end fracking and block any new drilling. Gas prices will soar. Problem solved. People will willingly give up gas cars because they won’t be able to afford buying gas.

The same polls that show Biden winning, show Trump getting 26% of the black vote. Hillary got 90% of the black vote and still lost.  How do you explain that? There are similar reports about Trump getting a high percentage of the Hispanic vote. How is Joe Biden going to win if that happens? Trump nominated Amy Cony Barrett to the Supreme Court. Democrats are trashing her because she is Catholic. Are there any other Catholics in this country who might be offended by that? There are reports that Joe Biden just released an ad appealing to Muslims to protest police. How do you think people will react to that?

Nancy Pelosi is proposing legislation to setup a commission to evaluate if Trump is physically and mentally fit for office. Do you think Joe Biden could pass such an exam? Trump responded by having Dr. Marc Siegel give him a medical exam live during Tucker Carlson tonight. We can be sure that both Trump and Dr. Siegel will emerge smiling at the results. This will show the world how urgent it is to take medical advice from Nancy Pelosi.

I know what I see. What do you see? From where I sit everything points toward Donald Trump having a really big day on November 3. He doesn’t even bother to run ads in Ohio and Iowa anymore because his internal polls show him with an insurmountable lead. Meanwhile Biden is campaigning in Nevada, which should be a cakewalk for a Democrat. Gallop reports that 56% of people say they are better off today than they were four years ago. That is the highest level ever recorded. How many of them will vote for someone like Biden, who is almost guaranteed to make a monumental mess of things. Remember, most people don’t watch CNN unless they are stuck in an airport and have no choice.

I see from sea to shining sea and the only evidence of a Biden wave is coming from people with a well-earned reputation for being wrong about everything else.

TDM

This was the most one-sided debate in American history. Mike Pence just wiped the floor with Kamala Harris. If you want to evaluate the debate yourself, just watch it with no sound. Look at the body language. Look at the facial expressions. Pence was calm, collected, and focused. Harris was clearly frazzled. She tried to make up for that with raw emotion, but she lacked the skill to pull that off. Most people watching this had only one question. Which of these two people is capable of being President of the United States? Only extremely liberal Democrats willing to overlook the obvious would choose Kamala Harris. Most of them were watching CNN. That is why the CNN poll has Harris winning 59% to 38%. That says more about the rapidly shrinking viewership of CNN than it does about the debate itself.

The moderator was predictably awful. She started with the ultimate soft ball question to Kamala Harris. She stated that the U.S. response to COVID 19 was an obvious failure and how would a Biden-Harris administration fix it. Kamala flailed big time. She chose to attack Donald Trump but offered no new solutions. Then Pence killed her with his response by pointing out that everything Biden is proposing was already done by the Trump administration. He then reminded people that Joe Biden has a history of plagiarism.

Harris lied, again, about Trump mocking the troops, Pence battled that down in the most effective way possible. He talked about his son and son-in-law in the military and he said that President Trump not only honored the troops, he revered them. It was impossible not to believe Pence.

When Harris repeated the Charlottesville lie about Trump supporting white supremacists Pence was ready. He pointed out that this was totally the result of selective editing by the mainstream media. He reminded people that not only did Trump condemn white supremacists at Charlottesville he had done this repeatedly.

Then Pence delivered an unexpected blow. He invited Kayla Mueller’s parents as guests. He told about how the Obama administration had a chance to save her, but they delayed approving the mission 30 days and they were too late to save her. Pence said Mueller’s parents told him if Donald Trump had been President, they believed their daughter would be still alive.  Harris had no response and was clearly shocked.

Pence also pinned Harris down about stacking the Supreme Court. She absolutely refused to answer, and he called her on it. He also responded to the idiotic request by the moderator to confirm that Trump would willingly leave office if he lost in the election. Pence pointed out that it was Democrats who refused to accept the results of the 2016 election.

But the real death blow was regarding fracking. Pence simultaneously showed that Harris was lying when she said Biden was not going to ban fracking while simultaneous pushing her into a position guaranteed to infuriate the radical Democratic base. If you doubt that, check out the following tweets from AOC this morning:

Fracking is bad, actually

still can’t get over how bad the climate change section of the debate was last night. This is the consequence of no climate questions in debates for years. The questions were childish, no follow-up questions for basic information, & there was almost no talk of solutions.

AOC never pretended that Harris did well. She predictably hated Mike Pence, but she knew who won that debate and who lost. She also knew that Pence handled the climate change question brilliantly.

Many are speculating that this debate won’t have much impact on the election. They are wrong about that too. Usually a VP debate is irrelevant. But this year is different. Few people in either party expect Biden to last 4 years. That means they know if he wins at some point Kamala Harris will become President of the United States. Few watching the debate last night with an ounce of objectivity thinks she is remotely capable of doing the job. Instead, she reminded a national audience of why she was one of the first major Democratic candidates to drop out of the race. She is a horrible debater and she showcased her lack of talent on national television.

Pence on the other hand, looked very presidential. He looks fully capable of taking over for Donald Trump. While Trump has survived COVID 19, this did make him look more mortal. That also made the VP debate more important.

Kamala Harris probably ended her political career last night. After this, any opinion of her will be past Pence.

TDM

Donald Trump continueD to campaign for President, knowing there was some risk and he got COVID. Democrats rejoiced. Some dreamed of his timely death. But Trump has now fully recovered. He stood on that White House balcony and defiantly removed his mask. He was sending a message to the American people. He admitted that he knew he was taking some risk by continuing to hold events and rallies, but he refused to let fear dominate him. The worse did happen, he did get COVID 19, but he survived. What made this doubly sweet is that the drugs he rushed into production probably saved his life. COVID 19 is real, but it no longer needs dominate our lives.

This reminds me of when Abraham Lincoln gave the first Thanksgiving Day proclamation. Prior to this, each state had its own thanksgiving celebration. Lincoln made it national. It is important to read what he said:

The year that is drawing towards its close, has been filled with the blessings of fruitful fields and healthful skies. To these bounties, which are so constantly enjoyed that we are prone to forget the source from which they come, others have been added, which are of so extraordinary a nature, that they cannot fail to penetrate and soften even the heart which is habitually insensible to the ever watchful providence of Almighty God. In the midst of a civil war of unequalled magnitude and severity, which has sometimes seemed to foreign States to invite and to provoke their aggression, peace has been preserved with all nations, order has been maintained, the laws have been respected and obeyed, and harmony has prevailed everywhere except in the theatre of military conflict; while that theatre has been greatly contracted by the advancing armies and navies of the Union. Needful diversions of wealth and of strength from the fields of peaceful industry to the national defense, have not arrested the plough, the shuttle or the ship; the axe has enlarged the borders of our settlements, and the mines, as well of iron and coal as of the precious metals, have yielded even more abundantly than heretofore. Population has steadily increased, notwithstanding the waste that has been made in the camp, the siege and the battle-field; and the country, rejoicing in the consciousness of augmented strength and vigor, is permitted to expect continuance of years with large increase of freedom. No human counsel hath devised nor hath any mortal hand worked out these great things. They are the gracious gifts of the Most High God, who, while dealing with us in anger for our sins, hath nevertheless remembered mercy. It has seemed to me fit and proper that they should be solemnly, reverently and gratefully acknowledged as with one heart and one voice by the whole American People. I do therefore invite my fellow citizens in every part of the United States, and also those who are at sea and those who are sojourning in foreign lands, to set apart and observe the last Thursday of November next, as a day of Thanksgiving and Praise to our beneficent Father who dwelleth in the Heavens. And I recommend to them that while offering up the ascriptions justly due to Him for such singular deliverances and blessings, they do also, with humble penitence for our national perverseness and disobedience, commend to His tender care all those who have become widows, orphans, mourners or sufferers in the lamentable civil strife in which we are unavoidably engaged, and fervently implore the interposition of the Almighty Hand to heal the wounds of the nation and to restore it as soon as may be consistent with the Divine purposes to the full enjoyment of peace, harmony, tranquility and Union.

Lincoln issued this proclamation on October 3, 1863. The war was far from over and many people were increasingly horrified at the tragedy of this war. Lincoln reminded the nation that we had much to be grateful for and that ultimately, even something as tragic as this Civil War could not overcome the numerous things for which to be grateful. While others offered only fear, Lincoln offered thankfulness and hope.

I think Donald Trump understands that. While his opponents are focusing on COVID 19 and demanding we all surrender even further to fear, Donald Trump took off his mask, expressed thanks for his own recovery and invited us to embrace hope, not fear. I suspect Lincoln would have understood. I also suspect the American people will understand far better than the fear merchants on CNN.

Give Thanks,

TDM

On July 27, 2020 it was suddenly announced that the Cleveland Clinic and Case Western Reserve University would host the first presidential debate of 2020. According to this article by Cleveland.com, that caught the U.S. Secret Service by surprise:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/u-s-secret-service-in-cleveland-caught-by-surprise-after-presidential-debate-thrown-into-our-lap/ar-BB17kV5l

“This kind of just got thrown into our lap,” Jon Shuck, Special Agent in Charge of the Secret Service’s Cleveland branch, told cleveland.com in a phone interview this week. “Typically, we have several months to plan something like this. We have a little over a month.”

Shuck said the Secret Service was not involved in the planning or selection processes, and only learned this week that the city would host a debate.

“It will be a challenge, but we’re not concerned,” he said. “We’ll still come up with a plan, but it will have to be a lot quicker.”

It was not just the Secret Service that was caught by surprise, so was the City of Cleveland nor its police department.

Now fast forward to the debate itself. It turns out that at least 11 people involved in the setup and pre-planning have contacted Covid-19. Suddenly, at the worst possible time, President Trump and several key Republicans all tested positive for COVID 19. The President is currently hospitalized at Walter Reed. Senator Chuck Schumer immediately seized the day to demand delay of the Amy Cony Barrett hearings. Joe Biden and his fawning supporters are blaming this on President Trump and demanding a national mask mandate. This reminds me when Nancy Pelosi said she would literally consider impeaching the President to stop the confirmation of Amy Cony Barrett. She then said, ominously, that she had more arrows in her quiver.

This begs the question. Why would the Rose Garden introduction of Amy Cony Barrett be assumed to be the source? Everyone attending that event was screened and literally tested before they could get to the site. There have been numerous similar events in the same location with no previous outbreaks. Why now? Democrats are determined to make this a Republican problem. But the screening at the White House is far superior to the screening in congress. No one is doing any testing in congress, certainly not of Democrats. This causes one to ask whether Democrats are somehow immune or whether there is a targeted attack. Unless you believe that God is intervening on behalf of Joe Biden, there seem to be a lot of coincidences here.

This is beyond obvious. The attached article from American Thinker makes a similar case:

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/10/speculation_mounts_about_the_source_of_president_trumps_illness.html

I personally dismiss most conspiracy theories. But I don’t dismiss a coincidence too far. Just because one is paranoid doesn’t mean someone is not out to get them. In this case the big question is whether one thinks people like Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer capable of doing something like this. Normally, that would be unthinkable, but not for them. They are the ones who did impeach a President of the United States for something that was clearly not illegal, and which was more than justified by the known facts. They are the ones who also pushed the Russian Collusion narrative long after it had been discredited. They have routinely spewed pure hatred for Donald Trump.

The News Media has deteriorated into the propaganda arm of the Democratic Party. Well documented facts showing corruption by Democrats are ignored. Yet the same media is hyperventilating because Trump took a short limo ride to thank his supporters. The only thing certain is that we absolutely cannot count on the Mainstream Media to report objectively on anything involving Donald Trump.

But there are tiny hints of change to come. John King from CNN admitted that Hunter Biden is a swamp creature profiting off his family’s name. Meanwhile Kayleigh McEnaney just announced that she tested positive. There are even reports of liberal White House correspondents testing positive. Hmmm. Those would be the same people screaming stupid questions from 50 feet while wearing face masks.

Something is definitely really wrong here. It just looks like a Coincidence too far.

TDM

President Trump and Melania have tested positive for COVID 19. Both are in good health. Both are reporting mild symptoms. Odds are very high that neither will get very sick. For one thing, Trump is probably taking Hydroxychloroquine which has been proven to work all over the world. It is impossible for anyone to predict exactly how this will impact either of them physically. What we can be sure of is over-reaction by Democrats resulting in mind-numbingly stupid decisions. Nancy Pelosi is already dreaming of both Trump and Pence getting Covid and conveniently dying making her President. The Washington Post already send out a disgusting tweet imagining how great things would be if Trump died. Several left-wing activists send out similar message of hope. The New York Times demanded Trump be dropped from the ticket.

The liberal left will try to portray this as proof that Trump brought this on himself by attending all those rallies and not wearing a mask.  But they may be on the losing end of that argument. Trump literally lives in a bubble. Everyone who has contact with him is routinely tested. Most people are wearing masks. In addition, he is a well-known germophobe.  Trump is likely to say he doesn’t know where or how he contacted COVID 19 and that is the point. If someone like him, who basically always lives in lockdown can get it, then the lockdowns clearly are not working.

If Trump has minor symptoms and maintains his working schedule, that will destroy the Democrats narrative. It will also disappoint them no end. If that happens, then ten days from today Trump will be immune from COVID 19. Joe Biden, however, will still be 77 years old, frail, and afraid to move without a mask. Fear is never actually very attractive.

At some point, everyone will realize the silliness of the mask hysteria. They clearly don’t work. They can’t possibly work. Jill Biden demonstrated that today. She was speaking regarding the positive test by Trump. She was wearing a nice pretty mask. But it didn’t fit right, so every few seconds, she reached up her hand and re-adjusted the mask. That, of course, contaminated the mask and made it worthless. This is the part about masks that no one gets. First, it is highly questionable if a cloth masks helps at all because it is so porous. But it is only potentially effective if it is a nice clean new mask, untouched by human hands, used only once and discarded. Few people do that. Many are wearing well-used masks. Other are wearing things like bandanas. Almost everyone touches their mask with their hands. At some point, someone is going to point this out and all this mask wearing hysteria will just look silly in the rear-view mirror.

In addition, masks give a false sense of security. I went to a store. I was a good boy and wore my mask, not to protect me from COVID, but to protect me from mask Nazis. I checked out and used my ATM card. I had to punch in my PIN on the card reader. That card reader had been touched by numerous other people and was not sanitized. There was no sanitizer nearby for me to use after using the pin pad. So, there I was, wearing a mask that does nothing, touching a grimy pin pad that did potentially expose me to COVID. Fortunately, I keep hand sanitizer in my car for exactly these kinds of situations.

Another example is a public restroom. They are numerous signs screaming about the need to wash your hands. But then there will be an air blower to use to dry your hands. There are no paper towels. So, you scrub your hands religiously for the full two minutes. You then dry them thoroughly with the air blower. Then you touch the door handle on the way out, possibly the dirtiest place in the restroom and risk contaminating yourself. This is just plain silly.

We really can’t live in a bubble and we can’t totally avoid being exposed. We can keep our distance and wash our hands, but we cannot live in a risk-free environment. When we try to do that, we just create more problems than we solve. There are reports that over half of the bars and restaurants in New York City have closed their doors, permanently, because of COVID 19. That will cost NYC billions in tax revenue. Thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of minority workers will be permanently unemployed. A higher minimum wage is great, unless you don’t have a wage at all. Millions of people are not getting physical exams or tests because of COVID. A lot of them will die, unnecessarily, not by COVID, but rather by the horrific side effects of the irrational fear of COVID.

We better hope Trump gets well soon and puts a positive spin on this. Otherwise the entire country will be run by idiots like the current Governor of California. By the time people realize how much damage is being done, it may well be too late to recover.

TDM

History has taught us that the winner of a presidential debate is not always immediately obvious. The first modern debate was between Richard Nixon and JFK. Most people thought Nixon had won. Nixon had better answers and looked to be in control. But they were wrong. JFK won and he won big. He won partly because he looked young and healthy while Nixon looked pale. But mostly he won because people accepted him as capable of being president. He managed to pass that hurdle.

The debate Tuesday night is a real game changer for obvious reasons. However, few of the pundits have figured this out yet.  It wasn’t until I started watching some of the focus groups that I realized what happened. Seldom in our history has a debate been viewed almost the same by everyone who watched it.

Prior to the debate a lot of people hated Donald Trump, primarily for his abrupt personality. Even Trump supporters can understand this. Trump can be extremely rude and annoying. He also brags about himself all the time and no one likes someone constantly tooting his own horn. Biden, on the other hand, was always described as “likeable.” Granted he might be showing some signs of senility and he was surrounded by radicals totally out of touch with mainstream American, but he was a nice guy.

Well Tuesday night changed that, and it changed it forever. While virtually every member of every focus group hated the way Trump acted, they also hated the way Biden acted. I didn’t hear a single person say that they liked Joe Biden. They didn’t. They hated him just as much as they hated Trump. He was equally rude and insulting.

If Biden had remained cool the results could have been very different. If he had just continued to create the impression that he was a nice guy, dealing with a rude bully, he might have won the day. But he didn’t do that. Instead he was even more rude and insulting than Trump. It was Biden who started interrupting Trump. He was even more insulting that Donald Trump. He told him to stop. He called him a clown. He interrupted Trump just as much as Trump interrupted him, Trump was just better at it. In the end, everyone described this the same way, as an absolute train wreck. This was hard to watch. Insulting. Embarrassing. A wrestling match, etc. etc.

But no one was calling Biden a winner. They all saw him the same way, as a rude bitter whiner. They hated Trump, but they hated him before the debate. The difference, and it is huge, is that now they also hate Biden. No one watching this debate liked Biden. All of them realized he was just as nasty as Trump, just as rude, just as insulting. At the end of the night, everyone agreed on one thing: they hated both.

Whether accidental or not, Trump absolutely destroyed the false image that Joe Biden is a nice guy. He isn’t. He is an ass. Many people said they would prefer another option, any other option. Many of them said they continued to be undecided. But no one and I do mean no one, thought Biden won. No one said Biden looked more presidential. That he showed more dignity. That he was a nice guy getting hammered by a jerk. Hammered by a jerk, yes, but responding by acting the same way, just with less skill.

Two men walked out on that stage last Tuesday. One of them, Donald Trump, was hated by a lot of people before he opened his mouth. The other, Joe Biden, considered to be a nice guy, not necessarily up to the job. When it was over those people who hated Trump still hate him. The difference is that by the end of the night, they also hated Joe Biden.

Years ago, I predicted that people would support Trump, despite all the obvious baggage, because they would ultimately choose pure competence. This election has changed dramatically because Joe Biden threw away his ace in the hole. He threw away the illusion of being a nice guy, liked by everyone who knows him. After this, no one likes Joes Biden. The only question now is who they hate more. That used to be an easy call, after Tuesday night most people hate both. Incredibly, Trump managed to get people to hate Biden as much as they hate him. I doubt anyone thought that was even possible.

That means this election will get down to one question. Who is better equipped to do the job? Who has a vision for American like my vision? Who is likely to make things better for me? If that is the main factor in this election, Trump wins in a landslide.

Trump did not win the debate Tuesday night, but Joe Biden definitely lost. This changes everything and that will become increasingly obvious. When choosing between the lesser of two evils, people always go with the option less threatening. Always.

This was clearly the ugliest debate in U.S. history. It was a real dust bowl. But when the dust cleared, the real winner emerged and that was Donald Trump, not Joe Biden.

TDM

The first Presidential debate is over. Democrats will declare Biden the winner. Republicans will declare Trump the winner. The big loser was Chris Wallace who never came close to gaining control of the debate. His theory of giving each guy two minutes uninterrupted with no chance to respond was a disaster. The result was both men talking over each other, with Trump clearly winning the interruption contest.

It would be easy to think Trump lost because he appeared to a bully and he constantly interrupted both Biden and Wallace. But this is not a debate contest, this is a contest to be President of the United States. Regardless of the first impression, people are going to ask who is more capable of being President. Trump won that hands down.

In addition, Biden made some huge gaffes. He flat out lied about Hunter Biden and the $3.5 million from the wife of the Moscow Mayor. That will be fact checked and that will be devastating for Biden. He could have said he didn’t know about it, but instead he chose to say this was discredited. That is a lie. His decision to tell a bald-faced lie about this makes it a huge story.

Also, it was Biden, not Trump, who made this personal. Trump interrupted Biden and told him he was wrong, but he did not personally insult him. Eventually people will understand that. Biden, on the other hand, called Trump a racist and a serial liar.  He even told Trump to shut up. I believe in the end it will be Biden, not Trump who loses on the likeability issue. Trump laughed at Joe. Joe showed hatred, anger, and contempt.

Biden really fell apart when Wallace pressed him on the Green New deal. He also came up short on the law and order issue. Trump scored on the climate change debate. He benefited from the far-left extreme proposals by Biden.

My prediction is that the MSM will declare Biden the winner. They will call Trump’s performance embarrassing. But, as always, they will be wrong. Ironically, Trump did miss some opportunities. On more than one occasions if he had let Biden continue odds are high Joe was about to go off the rails. By interrupting him, Trump actually helped Biden escape situations where he was headed toward serious trouble. But when the dust clears, Trump will have carried the day. The reason is quite simple, when Trump talked about what he did regarding the economy, Covid 19, law and order and the Supreme Court, he was forceful and convincing. Biden never did show that sense of leadership. Instead he resorted to vague slogans slamming Trump while talking about unifying the country.

This reminds me of watching a speech contest. When the professionals watch a speech, they choose a winner based on presentation, grammar, and elocution. But they often miss the true talent. The real winner is the contestant who may not do everything by the books, but who is capable of getting people to pay attention and can change people’s minds. Once such person was Winston Churchill who literally stuttered and often used fractured syntax. But Winston Churchill’s speeches changed the world.

Despite the format, the loss of control by Wallace and the idiot limiting of debate, Trump still dominated that stage. He dominated Wallace, he dominated Biden and odds are he dominated in the hearts and minds of people watching this fiasco. Yes, there will be people who hate Trump because of how he acted. But most of them hated Trump before the debate. That was never the point. The point was could Joe Biden show himself capable of being President of the United States? I am not at all sure he came close to doing that. He did not have a brain freeze and he looked competent. But he did not look like someone capable of being Commander in Chief.

TDM

The New York Times, predictably, ran another hit piece on Donald Trump. Ironically, this happened on the same day the Supreme Court said neither the prosecutors in New York nor Congress could get immediate access to Donald Trump’s tax returns. Yet, the NYT ran a report designed to embarrass Trump for information it could not possibly have obtained legally. Odds are high it hasn’t obtained it illegally either. They are just guessing and lying. What makes this beyond pathetic, is that they have tried this exact tactic before and failed. Trump just shrugs this crap off.

So why do it then? Although these people are definitely this biased, they are not actually this stupid. The obvious answer is that they are terrified about the prospect of Joe Biden debating Donald Trump, on National TV, without an earpiece and without a teleprompter. Perhaps Trump is right, and they will juice Joe up with something, but this is still very high risk. There is a reason Biden has been caught using teleprompters to answer softball questions from hand-selected reporters. They are terrified at how he will respond when confronted with real questions, he does not expect.

This is also evidence that they don’t believe the polls. If they believed them, they wouldn’t risk doing something this obvious and this poorly sourced. They are acting like Trump is not only winning, he is getting ready to run the table.

The fact that Joe may actually show up to the debate is an act of desperation. If they thought he had this in the bag those debates would never happen. Why, on earth, would they run the risk? If the Biden strategy of hiding in his basement was working, they wouldn’t risk rocking the boat.

Now throw in the untimely death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Trump called their bluff by nominating Amy Coney Barrett and Republicans in the Senate are clearly lined up to approve this nomination. Even Mitt Romney is on board. There is only one reason for that. Romney knows that he can’t afford to look weak regarding this nomination. He would love to stick it to Trump, but not at this level of personal cost.

Every Republican running for Senate, with the possible exception of Susan Collins, is going to quickly get on board. There is a reason for that. They know Trump is winning and none of them want to risk Trump campaigning against them.  They also realize that the roll-out of this nomination was a work of art, while Democrats are literally wetting themselves in public. They may not like Trump. They may not want Trump, but they do want to be re-elected and that is far more likely if you can hitch a ride on the Trump train.

There are also going to be court decisions that will make it much harder for the Democratic mail-in and ballot harvesting plan for November. They don’t even need Amy Cony Barrett to make that decision, the current Supreme Court will take care of this quickly. Combine that with more and more documented evidence of Democrats using mail-in ballots to steal elections and you have a perfect storm.

Forget the polls and absolutely ignore predictions by the MSM including Fox News. Trump is feeling his oats and Democrats are showing signs of pure panic.

Look at your TV. Check out who is smiling and who looks like they swallowed something awful. Look at the support for Trump in the Hispanic and black communities. If he gets more than 10% of the black vote, Biden loses big time. If he gets 25%, he runs the table.

Don’t be misled by the usual suspects like Lebron James and Al Sharpton. Lebron thinks he speaks for the black community. He only speaks for super rich pampered athletes. Pay attention to the black Attorney General in Kentucky. A lot of Democrats are trashing him without understanding something important. I suspect a lot of black people watching this view this very differently. They see an impressive black man being trashed by people pretending to support the black community. At least some of them will feel more empathy for Daniel Cameron than for the people slandering him.

I remember talking to a black attorney friend during the Clarence Thomas hearings. He was very liberal and a Democrat. But he told me that when Clarence Thomas said this was a “high tech lynching” he felt that in his soul.

We are clearly at the “WHY.”  It is important to understand why people are doing what they are doing. It would be naïve to think this is because they think Joe Biden has this in the bag.

TDM