One of my favorite scenes from Gomer Pyle was when Gomer and Sergeant Carter were confronted with a ticking time bomb. The decision was clear. They had to cut either the red wire or the white wire. If they cut the wrong wire, the bomb would immediately explode. If they cut the right wire, the bomb would be defused. Sergeant Carter asked Gomer which wire he would cut. Gomer said the white wire. Sergeant Carter immediately cut the red wire, defusing the bomb. Gomer asked Sergeant Carter why he bother asking him his opinion if he was going to ignore it. Sergeant Carter said: “because the only certain thing was that you would be wrong.”

That is exactly the way I feel about the global warming alarmists. The only thing certain is that they are wrong. NONE of their pevious predictions have been accurate. Mostly of them have been absurdly wrong. These were the same people who convinced Al Gore that the arctic ocean would be completely ice free. He did this several times, in 2007, 2008, and 2009. First this would happen by 2013 but was delayed when the arctic ice inconveniently expanded by 50% over 2012 levels.  Nailed that one Al. So, Al kept making the same predictions, for 2014 and 2016 with the same results.

In case any of you wonder about whether Snopes is credible, here is the result of the Snopes fact check:

Gore did not himself make these predictions but said (in some cases erroneously) that others had; Gore never referred to a year-long lack of ice for both poles, but instead largely referenced Arctic sea ice in the summer.

Then Snopes went on to prove that this is exactly what Gore said.

Now a Government report warns of worsening U.S. disasters. This report was written over several years, so it was heavily influenced by Obama era scientists. These were people who received millions if not billions in funding if they found global warming and were ridiculed if they didn’t

The main stream media promoted this as straight from the lips of God:

https://apnews.com/f9732784135c4f4a8963daff79e2583e

The media ignored the fact that 25 NASA scientists questioned the sanity of Global Warmists back in January.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EhW-B2udhQw

If this had been a video by Michael Avenatti criticizing Donald Trump’s treatment of porn stars, you would have all seen this. Since it criticized the conventional non-wisdom, odds are none of you were even aware of this.

Here’s the good news. This report is nonsense. Yes, the weather will change and there will be hurricanes, floods, tornadoes, droughts, floods and fire. There will be times when it will be very hot and times when it will be very cold. This is easy to predict, because it has been going on for thousands of years. We can also predict that none of the very specific and idiotic predictions made by this report will be close to true. Like Sergeant Carter, we may not be able to find reality, but it is very easy to identify who is and will be consistently wrong.

TDM

I wrote previously that this was probably the last chance for Democrats to steal a major election.  In spite of the numerous reports in the main stream media that there is zero evidence of election fraud, we are surrounded by such evidence. Every Orange County Republican was ahead on election night and every one of them lost with late arriving provisional ballots.  Coincidence?  I saw a recent report that last year 449,000 people on the voter registration rolls in California refused to accept jury duty on the basis that they were not actually U.S. citizens. I have not been able to verify this, but it seems accurate. Only a naïve fool or someone who wants non-residents to vote would believe there is no voter fraud in California.

A study by the U.S. Government Accountability Office found that up to 3% of 30,000 individuals called for jury duty from voter registration rolls over a two-year period in just one U.S. district court were not U.S. citizens.  This is more than enough to be the deciding factor in a close election.

California grudgingly passed new voter registration laws in October 2015. This will be fully implemented by October 2020. This reform is the direct result of a federal law passed in 2005 designed to combat terrorism. If you do not have a real ID, proving citizenship, you will no longer be able to board an aircraft or enter any military or federal facility after October 1, 2020.

California Driver’s licenses did not require any proof of citizenship, so they are not considered to be “real id”. Everyone in California has to get a new license. They get a choice between a real ID, which is only obtained after proving citizenship, or a standard license, which cannot be used to register to vote.

When a real ID is issued the information is sent to the Secretary of State electronically which is then required to verify citizenship and to update the voter registration records. Previously California refused to cooperate with the federal government regarding voter registration. But with this law, the California Secretary of State is REQUIRED to confirm citizenship, on a federal database,in order for a California Driver’s license to qualify as a real ID. These means the federal government now has access to real data.

Do not underestimate the significance of this. There is a reason there is a Republican Governor in Georgia and a Republican Governor and Senator in Florida. That is because both states passed voter registration reform. Once again Democrats were poised to steal an election, but voter registration reform stopped them. In California, the difference is likely to be far more significant. We have a lot of non-citizens here, we currently don’t check ids at all and we don’t appear to make any effort to verify who actually voted.

Los Angeles prosecutors just indicted several people for exactly this kind of voter fraud:

https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-skid-row-voter-fraud-20181120-story.html

The crude exchange played out hundreds of times on L.A.’s skid row during the 2016 election cycle and again this year, prosecutors said Tuesday as they announced criminal charges against nine people accused in a fraud scheme.

Using cash and cigarettes as lures, the defendants approached homeless people on skid row and asked them to forge signatures on state ballot measure petitions and voter registration forms, the district attorney’s office said. The defendants — some of whom were scheduled to be arraigned Tuesday — face several criminal charges, including circulating a petition with fake names, voter fraud and registering a fictitious person.

The Los Angeles Times was either unable to determine which party benefited from this scam or they just forgot to tell us. Anyone want to make a guess?

Governor Jerry Brown vetoed a bill that would have banned per-signature payment for those collecting petition signatures, claiming the law might allow ballot control by “the weathiest interests.” Apparently only poor people can afford to pay someone to collect signatures. This is beyond absurd.

But it is also over. While California would definitely like to leave the U.S., except for the money thing, California NEEDS the federal government. Although they will never admit it, California also needs the Federal Government to control our border. If you doubt that, just let Trump declare a two week holiday for ICE and the Border patrol and watch what happens. That is why both Newsom and Brown were groveling for assistance from President Trump. It is why California is, reluctantly, verifying voter records and even more reluctantly, requiring people to prove citizenship to get a “real id” driver’s license. This is also why the political landscape in this state may change faster than anyone can imagine.

Combine this with the Supreme Court decision preventing public sector unions from forcing people to join the union and pay dues and a perfect political storm is on the horizon. This just may be the last year where public sector unions had big bucks to spend on elections.

Although California still looks pretty insane, the smoke is starting to clear and there are actually some pretty good reasons to give thanks.

TDM

Donald Trump visited the devastation in Paradise California, along with Governor Brown and Governor-Elect Gavin Newsom. Several things are very obvious.

Donald Trump did not resemble the mythical uncaring monster described on a nightly basis by CNN, MSNBC and the rest of the main stream media.

He looked very professional and in control. He was the one showing real leadership.

He also showed a lot warmth toward both Newsom and Brown, even though both have made a career our of demonizing him. The same people who had slammed him on a daily basis and who promised to resist his administration at every opportunity, stood there with their tail between their legs practically begging Trump for help. Brown, who has been blaming everything on global warming, admitted we must now consider everything and let science decide. He also admitted that Trump was very realistic about all of this.

Trump made both of them look small by comparison. It was clear who was in charge, who was the one with solutions and who looked way out of their class. He literally killed them with kindness.

The MSM will try to find a way to spin this negatively toward Trump. They can’t help themselves. But they can’t change the picture of Trump standing between Brown and Newsome and towering over both of them in every way possible.

Then there was the pathetic photo op appearance by Senator Kamala Harris. She obviously wasn’t invited to the prior meeting by either Trump, Brown or Newsom. Odds are Brown and Newsom know Kamala Harris cannot be the face of California when asking for assistance from Trump. No one from the press was invited to tour with Harris and the only press coverage was from a video released by her staff.

Kamala Harris can do a great service to California by just shutting up. She has been caught telling flagrant lies about this administration on a regular basis. We can be sure that a phone call from her office to the White House is not going to receive much attention and the attention it does receive will be mostly negative.

California desperately needs the help of the federal government it has tried to obstruct on a nearly daily basis. Earth to idiots. Suing the federal government while arrogantly demanding desperately needed assistance is insanely stupid. Fortunately, Donald Trump showed who is the bigger man, willing to put doing the right thing above partisan politics.

As for the rest of us who live in the state, it was hard not to embarrassed by the caliber of people we have stupidly put in charge. But, at least the weather’s great, when not obscured by smoke from wildfires.

One final thought. Gavin Newsom was married to Kimberly Guilfoyle. That would be the same Kimberly Guilfoyle now “dating” Donald Trump, Jr. Odds are very high that there is a direct back channel of communication between the Trump White House and Gavin Newsom.  Don’t be sure that Newsom will follow in the steps of Governor Brown in suing the federal government at every opportunity. He has a decision to make,. Does he want to be a successful Governor or does he want to continue a war with Donald Trump that he cannot possibly win.

TDM

There is a very interesting article in Skeptical Science which proudly claims it is “Getting skeptical about global warming skepticism”:

https://www.skepticalscience.com/ice-age-predictions-in-1970s-intermediate.htm

When you think about it, this is actually hysterical. They are skeptical about being skeptical, then they document the reasons everyone should be skeptical.

In 1970 Newsweek published an article called “The Cooling World.” My favorite quote is the following:

“Meteorologists disagree about the cause and extent of the cooling trend… But they are almost unanimous in the view that the trend will reduce agricultural productivity for the rest of the century.”  Sound Familiar?

In 1974 Time Magazine published an article called: “Another Ice Age?”

When meteorologists take an average of temperatures around the globe, they find that the atmosphere has been growing gradually cooler for the past three decades. The trend shows no indication of reversing. Climatological Cassandras are becoming increasingly apprehensive, for the weather aberrations they are studying may be the harbinger of another ice age.”

The liberal left is trying to re-write history, again. Now, they claim this was all based of poor reporting by the media and “real scientists” were predicting global warming based on CO2 levels:

“1970s ice age predictions were predominantly media based. The majority of peer reviewed research at the time predicted warming due to increasing CO2. “

So, if the main stream media lying about the concensus amoung scientists in the 1970s, why should we believe them now? Perhaps the most honest analysis was done in 1970:

we do not have a good quantitative understanding of our climate machine and what determines its course. Without the fundamental understanding, it does not seem possible to predict climate…” Since very prediction by the global warming crowd has been wrong, this looks like good advice.

We can predict some things. Like the activity on the Sun. We can predict that because scientists can see it and and can see what’s coming. NASA is now predicting a record cold winter because of the lack of sun spots. This has been well documented for a couple of years. While it is hard to give NASA any credibility when they have botched the global warming predictions by huge margins, this does give one pause. For example NASA’s TIMED statellite show that the thermosphere is cooling and shrinking. Unlike the estimates of ocean temperature, this is actually a real measurement. I am not about to predict our future climate when the real experts admit they don’t have enough data to do that. But I can suggest one thing. Don’t sell your coat!

TDM

Unfortunately the Camp Fire that destroyed Paradise, California is bringing back some painful memories for me. This is so bad that insurance adjusters aren’t even allowed into the area because there is still a massive search for additional bodies. We may not know the final body count for days. In the meantime a team of specialists is combing the area doing a job none of us can even contemplate.

I was V.P. and Director of Insurance for ABM Industries, Inc. when the 9-11 attack occurred. ABM had 850 people working at the World Trade Center. I was on the first plane out of San Francisco arriving in New York on Wednesday morning. When I arrived at our New York Headquarters I was advised that ABM still have over 140 people missing. We knew some of them had been killed, that was inevitable. The problem was how to get closure. We set up a team of HR specialists who had the assignment of calling the next of kin for each missing person to find out if they had heard from them. As you can imagine, while some of these calls resulted in good news, others were horrendous when the person called realized their loved one was probably gone. I hired a psychologist to provide guidance on how to do this and to work with our traumatized HR staff.

I will never forget the tremendous work these people did that week. They could not change the results, we had 17 employees killed, but they did show compassion and understanding for people who desperately needed it.

This also brought back a memory that was nothing short of miraculous. I went through the NYC metropolitan area meeting our injured employees who had been located in hospitals. I visited one man, an elevator operator, who had survived. He was heartbroken because he said he knew his wife, an elevator operator in the other tower, had not made it. I asked him his wife’s name, and my heart nearly stopped, because I had just come from her hospital room. I signaled my assistant to verify this, because I sure didn’t want to get this wrong. He quickly reported that yes she was the woman we had just visited. So I was able to tell this man that not only was his wife alive, she was in the same hospital.

Neither of them had any hope that the other had survived. I informed hospital staff and almost immediately they put both of them in the same room.

It is a reminder that in the worst of times, miracles can and do still happen.

TDM

One of our favorite TV series was Foyles War. It was about a Detective in Great Britain during WWII. Now we have Donald Trump at war with his foils in the MSM. I thinks “Foils War” is a pretty good name for this. Trump has clearly decided that enough is enough. Once the mid-term elections were safely behind him, he decided to directly challenge those who are out to resist his presidency. It is hard to blame him for fighting back against those determined to prevent him from governing.

At best, the Democrats can do nothing to Trump during the remainder of his first term. It will take that long to even get a subpoena processed. Mueller is going to wrap up his probe and it won’t even mention Trump or collusion with Russia. A couple of people will be charged with lying to the FBI, but that is all Mueller has after all this time.

If the Democrats launch impeachment proceedings on January 2, they still won’t have enough time to get this done before 2020. Even if Democrats manage to win back the Senate, with more last minute miraculous votes from Democratic strong holds, they can’t convict Trump because they still need 67 votes. Corker and Flake have retired and McCain is dead. The odds of enough Republicans joining with Democrats to remove Trump are less than zero. It would certainly take a lot more than the worst allegations currently floated by the liberal left.

CNN played into Trump’s hand with this silly lawsuit trying to get Jim Acosta back on the air. The lawsuit is extremely sloppy and it grossly misrepresents the facts. If anything it gives Trump cover for refusing to give Costa his credentials back until the lawsuit is resolved and that could easily take months. Even if some judge rules against Trump, which is quite possible, the administration will just appeal. CNN and Acosta would be very wise to consider a large dose of humble pie.

Republicans who embraced Trump, won. Those who distanced themselves, like Martha McSally, lost. Democrats not only failed to stop Kavanaugh, they made it impossible to ignore the reality that Democrats have zero interest in the constitution or the rule of law. When Lindsey Graham said they were only interested in regaining power and that he prayed to God they never got it, he spoke for a lot of people. When Hillary said Democrats can only be civil if they win, she was accidentally speaking the truth. If Democrats use their newly regained leadership in the House to only investigate Trump, they will pay a terrible price in 2020. But if they don’t attack Trump, they will also pay a terrible price in 2020. They have simply made promises they cannot possibly keep.

There is an old saying, if you take a shot at a King, don’t miss. The liberal left took their best shot at Donald Trump and they missed by a mile. This should concern us all, because like any other President, Trump has tremendous power that can be abused. So far, he has not asked the FBI, or the IRS or the CIA to target political opponents. Instead he has fought back with public statements and twitter. We should be grateful for that, because the alternative is that he follow Obama’s example of rampant abuse of power. Just because the MSM ignored the abuse of power by Obama does not make it any more acceptable or less dangerous.

TDM

The real question to be answered today is whether or not the American people are terminally stupid. Ultimately it doesn’t really matter who controls the House, Trump will still be President and Republicans are almost certain to control the Senate. What matters is whether or not a lot of cash poured by fat cat Democrats can persuade people to vote for fatally flawed candidates. Here are just some of the examples.

FLORIDA

Will the voters in Florida elect a candidate for governor literally under investigation by the FBI for corruption?

NEW JERSEY

Will the voters in New Jersey hold their nose and vote for Robert Menendez who is so crooked that when he dies they will have to screw him into the ground?

ARIZONA

Will the voters in Arizona vote for a Senator who is literally on record bad mouthing the state, telling people it’s ok to fight for the Taliban and who has run a train wreck of a campaign?

GEORGIA

Will the voters in Georgia vote for Stacey Abrams, a hard core left wing liberal with tons of baggage?

TEXAS

Will the voters in Texas vote for an Irishman with a Hispanic nickname who promises to take away their guns?

Incredibly, all of this seems quite possible. Hopefully the polls are wrong and these people are easily defeated. It is absolutely frightening to consider the next round of candidates put forth by Democrats if these clowns win. No one, in either party, should consider any of these candidates as remotely acceptable. Granted, Democrats would vote for Adolph Hitler in drag, but Democrats alone cannot elect anyone.

CALIFORNIA.

California may get weird, because of self-inflicted wounds by Democrats. Gavin Newsome is so sure he will win that he has barely campaigned at all. The same is true for Ami Bera here in the 7^th District. The choice for Senate is between two Liberal Democrats and the choice for Lieutenant Governor is also between two liberal Democrats. The only statewide race getting a lot of attention is Superintendent of Public Instruction and that is unlikely to generate much enthusiasm in either party.

That means it will be the local elections that generate turnout. The only statewide measure likely to generate enthusiasm is Prop 6, the repeal of the gas tax.

The point is that if I were a Democrat, I am not sure I would bother to vote. Even if you are motivated to vote against Trump, that is unlikely to affect you unless you live in a district with a vulnerable Republican congressional representative up for re-election. Republicans, on the other hand, are likely to show up in droves both to vote against Prop 6 and to keep those Republicans in office.

When you combine this with Sacramento making it so difficult to vote, well this could get weird. That is not a prediction, just an observation. Only a die-hard optimist would ever predict anything other than Democrats running the table in California, again.

One very safe prediction. At the start of the night, the networks will focus on races where it looks like a blue wave is developing and downplay races where the Republicans are winning. All Republican wins will be portrayed as “expected” while the Democratic wins will be considered evidence of the coveted blue wave. This is because the networks have a long history of doing this in an attempt to depress Republican turnout in Western States. During the 2000 election, networks were declaring Al Gore the winner most of the evening. There were numerous reports of people in western states, waiting in line to vote, getting disgusted and turning around to go home. It was only later that the MSM reversed that call and admitted it was George W. Bush, not Al Gore who won that election.

Watch for weird.

TDM

In the spring of 1984 I was in Las Vegas for a trade show. I happened to be in the Sports Book at Caesar’s Palace. Out of idle curiosity I looked up at the board to see the odds of the Detroit Tigers winning the World Series. I don’t remember the exact odds, but it was probably about 75/1. It was definitely very high. With good reason. The Tigers hadn’t won a World Series since 1968 and the one prior to that was in 1945.

Suddenly the board went blank, and then the odds dropped to something like 10/1. At first I thought this was a typo or a missing bulb. Then I saw a news report saying the Detroit Tigers had acquired relief pitcher Willie Hernandez in a trade with Philadelphia. I didn’t know who Willie Hernandez was, but those Las Vegas book makers sure knew. Hernandez went on to record 32 saves out of 33 chances. He won the Cy Young Award and was voted the most Valuable Player in the American League. Detroit started the season 35-5 and after those 40 games they never relinquished a lead during the entire season.

The point is the people who know the real odds frequently work or live in Las Vegas. These guys aren’t motivated by politics, they are motivated by money. Last Thursday Robert Barnes, a well-known high-roller jumped on a non-stop flight to London so he could make six figure bets on the election. He is betting on Republicans retaining control of the House and the Senate. He is putting his money where his mouth is:

https://www.covers.com/Editorial/Article/43697421-df6e-11e8-a97c-0a73013d6078/This-proven-political-bettor-is-so-sure-of-his-midterm-election-bets-hes-crossing-the-pond-to-play-them

He explains his reasoning below:

“There’s a problem with polling around the world, particularly in America,” Barnes said. “The response rate is so low, and landlines are no longer reliable means to reach people. We’re in an experimental polling age. I became obsessed with polling in the 2016 election, diving into the polls. The polling problems that were present in 2016 still exist in 2018, and in fact, they’re worse. That’s enhanced and increased the odds being in favor of the Democrats.”

Then he gave his opinion regarding the people producing political polls:

If you want to change your reasoning, change your motivation. Political betting does that better than anything,” Barnes said. “What’s fascinating is that none of these people in the political data journalist space would last six months in Vegas in a sports betting market. They’re like the kids who come out here for March Madness.

For the record, I wouldn’t bet $100 on this election, let alone six figures. But there are people who do make such bets. Since it is illegal to bet on elections in the U.S., London becomes attractive because it is legal there. Nate Silver, who is betting nothing, has the odds at 85% that Democrats will take control of the house. That would result in odds between 5 to 1 and 6 to 1.  But no London broker will give you those odds. More likely the best you could get would be 2/1 or maybe 3/2.  That’s because they think the Republicans have about a 40% chance of winning. Mr. Barnes thinks the odds of Republicans winning are closer to 65%, which is why he is currently in London voting with his very fat wallet.

This is far from predicting a Republican victory, but it is even farther from predicting the coveted blue wave.

TDM

There is an old joke that even a stopped clock is accurate twice a day. This is a reminder that sometimes the dumbest people actually get something right.  One thing I learned throughout my career is to always listen, even to people who disagree with you.  Sometimes, they get something right. I remember one particular case where one of our employees, a security guard, was seriously injured when he was hit by a woman who committed suicide by jumping from a 5-story parking garage. The media portrayed this as an act of heroism, where he tried to break her fall. Regardless of his motivation, he suffered a life changing injury and she still died.  One of the insurance adjusters on the account suggested suing the woman who jumped for negligent suicide. I thought that was the most ridiculous idea ever, until I realized she was right. I authorized my attorney to file a claim against her homeowners’ insurance for negligent suicide. The attorney representing the insurance company thought this was ridiculous too, until he had to write us a check for $1,000,000. We argued that if she wanted to kill herself, she had a duty to make sure she didn’t land on someone else. In retrospect that is pretty obvious.

Recently Michael Avenatti took a brief pause in his campaign to destroy the last remaining remnants of a failed legal career, to say something that is actually pretty spot on.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/michael-avenatti-democrats-will-suffer-dukakis-level-blowout-if-they-stay-soft-on-immigration

In 1988, Michael Dukakis lost the presidential race because of the Willie Horton ad and his refusal to fight fire with fire and go on the offensive. The Dems will not effectively combat Trump’s racist ad of earlier today or capture the WH if we make the same mistake again. #Basta

— Michael Avenatti (@MichaelAvenatti) November 1, 2018

Democrats should listen to him, this time, but since he is not trashing Trump and his personal legal troubles are beyond overwhelming, even CNN has lost his phone number. Even if they did listen to him, they would never believe him, because that would mean Trump is right about this. CNN anchors would rather die of cancer than admit Trump was right about a cure. But Avenatti is right. If Democrats don’t figure out that NO ONE wants this caravan to show up in their back yard, (or front yard) they are doomed to failure.

This is so obvious that I wish someone would start a “Go Fund Me” account to finance buses that would transport the members of this caravan to tent cities located on the front lawns of the following people who are so strongly in favor of letting these wonderful people into the U.S.:

Don Lemon, Anderson Cooper, Hillary Clinton, Kamala Harris, Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi, Diane Feinstein, John Tapper, Jeffrey Tobin and a cast of thousands. This should be easy, we would just give each of them one tent and say 10 people. That shouldn’t be too inconvenient for them. This would be so compassionate, and they could demonstrate their personal willingness to contribute by helping just some of these wonderful people become happy and prosperous Americans.

But, instead of embracing this common-sense solution, each of them would quickly build a wall around their property. Remarkably similar to the wall Donald Trump wants to build on our southern border.

Like I said, even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

TDM

The most recent predictions by the pundits is that Republicans have a 15% chance of keeping the House. The same pundits say Republicans have an 85% chance of keeping the Senate. It should be pointed out that in 2016, the same people predicted that Donald Trump had a 16% chance of winning the presidency. That is why Hillary Clinton ordered a barge loaded with fireworks for her victory party.

But we now know that at least some people running polls for Hillary Clinton were warning her that Trump could win. These people were, as expected, shouted down by more brilliant, but wrong, advisors.

This is happening again. Only this time those people predicting the blue wave are already starting to back off their predictions. I thought it would be interesting for people to know where the 15% came from in the first place. It all has to do with the bell curve.

Following is a typical bell curve. I used to teach statistics at the college level, so this is very familiar to me.

This is basically the standard graph used to predict results based on a series of data. In this case the graph is showing that about 68.3% of predictable data points falls within one standard deviation and 95.4% falls within two standard deviations. Hence a prediction of results falling with the 85 percentile is actually less reliable than a normal distribution because one would expect 95% confidence that the results would fall within two standard deviations.

In addition, bell curves are not perfect. In the case of elections, the problem may be with regard to the data used to develop the curve. In 2016 I looked at the underlining data and discovered that every pollster was predicting turnout models that were significantly different that those from more recent elections. When I adjusted the data to compensate for that, I was shocked to see that it was Trump who was more likely to win. I did write about this in my blog, but this was so different from what the experts were reporting that I was pretty subdued in my analysis. Following is what I wrote on November 1, 2016. It turned out to be very accurate:

https://scotshonor.com/?p=3509

On November 2, 2016 I wrote about reports that Republican turnout in early voting was higher than expected. The MSM ignored this, to their ultimate peril:

https://scotshonor.com/?p=3512

On November 7, 2016 I noted that if the underlying data was accurate, Trump would win. This was such a departure from what was being reported on TV that I almost didn’t publish this blog.

https://scotshonor.com/?p=3517

The purpose of this is not to gloat about my analysis, it was pretty rudimentary. It was rather to point out the flaws in the analysis by the talking heads on TV. This year we don’t have all those polls and we don’t have the underlying data. Neither do they. This makes it much harder to predict. But, I can say this with confidence. Those bold predictions that Democrats have an 85% chance of winning the House are based on scarce or none existent data. In addition, this is based on a bell curve showing a normal distribution. In real life, particularly regarding politics, the least likely outcome is a normal distribution. That is why everyone is talking about turnout. Turnout changes everything. So, the real question is who is motivated to vote and who is not.

It is clear that Democrats have motivated people to outrage demonstrated by public protests and rude behavior. But you don’t win elections with protests and rude behavior. Just ask the people who ran the 1972 George McGovern campaign about that. He lost to Richard Nixon in the fourth-worst loss by popular vote in American History.

On Tuesday will Democrats turn out in droves to vote for more ObamaCare, for open borders, and for impeaching Kavanaugh and Trump? Perhaps, but I sure wouldn’t bet on that, particularly when early voting trends, again, show that it is Republicans who are turning out in force.

Or will Republicans turn out in droves because they see the threat to our national security represented by caravans of people we don’t know flooding through our borders. Will they turn out in droves because they are disgusted with the gutter tactics of Democrats desperate to stop the Brett Kavanaugh from becoming a Supreme Court Justice? Will at least some Hispanics and some African Americans realize that it was Donald Trump who cut their taxes and made it possible for them to get a job? If any or all of this happens, that blue wave will look pretty red on Tuesday night.

We will soon know. If I am wrong, then brace yourself for Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, Chairman of the House Committee on Finance Maxine Waters and Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee Adam Schiff. That will be very bad indeed, but also very temporary. These clowns are guaranteed to muck things up. But if I am right, we may see the worst public meltdown in the history of TV broadcasting. Either way, be sure to vote and then hold on because this is going to be quite a ride.

TDM