On November 2016 I published a blog titled: “THE REAL POLLING RESULTS.” http://scotshonor.com/?p=3509 . I reached the following conclusion.
“If these numbers are accurate, Hillary only wins if there is a sudden surge of Democratic voters or the Democrats find a way to steal millions of votes. Democrats are very good at winning in big cities where Democratic machines operate things, but they can’t manipulate the whole country.”
Election day 2016 was terrifying. It was hard to be optimistic when there had been so many previous disappointments. On election day, pundits were still giving Hillary a 90% chance of getting elected. One election night the MSM still thought Hillary would win, until it became undeniable that she had lost.
The data I looked at in 2016 was voter turnout between 2008 and 2016. This is well documented. After each election, it is easy to see how many Democrats, Independents and Republicans showed up to vote. It is also easy to see how many blacks and Hispanics voted. In 2008 Democrats, blacks and Hispanics showed up in droves. But for the period from 2008 to 2016 that changed dramatically. In every election, everywhere the turnout was quite different than it was in 2008.
In 2016 the people who turned out for Obama did not turn out for Hillary. I also looked at Gallup voter registration data. By 2016 that had changed dramatically. Then as now, it is was about 30% Democrat, 30% Republican and 40% independent.
Every poll shows Trump winning among independents. So, once again, unless there is a sudden surge of Democratic voters or Democrats find a way to steal millions of votes, Trump coasts to re-election.
A lot of things have changed since 2016, most of which favor Trump. While Hillary drew mediocre crowds in 2016, Trump was drawing enormous crowds. Hillary did draw a huge crowd on November 7, 2016, but that was because that event included performances by Bon Jovi and Bruce Springsteen. In addition, Michelle and Barrack Obama showed up. Otherwise Hillary drew small and relatively unenthusiastic crowds.
This year Biden isn’t drawing any crowds. Mike Pence spoke to about 4,000 people yesterday and that was a bigger attendance than all the Biden rallies, combined. Trump has returned to the campaign trail and he will draw enormous crowds wherever he does. Biden is speaking to an empty room, criticizing Trump for returning to the campaign trail.
No one knows how the massive vote by mail campaign will impact this election. Keep in mind that this varies greatly by state. In California they just mailed a ballot to every registered voter. In many other states, you must request an absentee ballot. Even in California, this may not work out as expected. The reason is because of two things, a bar code and a signature. Previously in California you could just show up and vote and no one checked any ID. In places like Orange County there was literally vote harvesting by well-organized Democrats. This year ballots mailed in are automatically scanned for two things. First, they scan for the bar code. Every ballot has a unique bar code. Then they scan the signature and match the signature on record for that bar code. The computer system has signature recognizing software and will reject signatures that look obviously incorrect.
Where do they find that signature, you may ask? https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/article246338640.html
“The comparison signature could be a person’s driver license signature, or their initial registration application, or any of a handful of other documents over time that voters sign and that are on file, including more recent ballot votes, or the change of address form the voter may have filled out the last time they moved.”
Well, glory be! if you have a real ID drivers’ license, they check that first. If you have a real ID drivers’ license in California, the database knows if you are a U.S. citizen. They check the most recent document. For the first time every vote in California will be documented on a database and the signatures will be matched. It would be naïve to think this only benefits Democrats.
Many are predicting no results on election night. That is certainly possible, we still don’t really know who won the Democratic caucuses in Iowa. There are also elections in New York and New Jersey where the results are still in doubt. Keep in mind that these are Democratic districts, so this is more evidence of incompetence than bias. But a lot of people are going to show up on November 3 and vote in person. Others will vote by mail, but not necessarily for Joe Biden. Even in California results may come in surprisingly fast, because each ballot is counted when it is scanned. It could possibly be faster than in previous elections.
So, we are close to showtime. And all that really matters, is who shows up. My prediction is very simple. The candidate who can draw thousands of people willing to drive long distances to wait outside in long lines just to get a glimpse of his shadow is the candidate most likely to see the same people show up to vote. Likewise, the candidate who shows up to extremely sparse crowds would be naïve to think that secretly millions of people are desperate to vote for him.
Just as in every other election, it is the turnout that matters. The only real question is whether Democrats can steal enough votes to make up the difference. I question whether the same Democrats, famous for mismanagement, are remotely capable of pulling that off, at least not nationally.