RED OCTOBER

All the polls show Biden leading Trump, but with a much narrower lead. This is exactly how the polls looked in 2016, regarding Hillary Clinton and  Donald Trump. Once again, the polls are wrong, for the same reason. All these polls are based on assumptions that are simply not true.

For example, look at who Fox talked to during their recent poll. Now one would assume that Fox would at least try to get this right, but that would be a wrong assumption. Fox News provided the political affiliation of the people surveyed. This is typical of their previous polls. Democrats were 49% of people polled, Republicans were 46% and Independents were 5%.  This pattern has been consistent since October, 2019. Then they surveyed 48% Democrat, 40% Republican and 12% Independent.  As you can see, they have increased the number of Republicans, but reduced the number of Independents.

The problem is that no one supports this demographic split of voters by party affiliation.  Gallop has an average of 28.75% Republicans, 30.75% Democrat and 37% independent. Other reports like Rasmussen show democratic party registration declining. But, let’s assume that Gallop is close.

This is easy to understand. To make the math easy, assume that 100% of Republicans will support Trump and 100% of Democrats will support Biden.  That is not accurate, but a higher percentage of Republicans support Trump than Democrats support Biden, so it is fair.

Every poll shows Trump leading among independents by about 10 points. If that is true, then right now Trump is leading by at least 2 points. But there are also polls showing Trump getting 40% of the Latino vote and an incredible 25 plus percent of the black vote. Every poll assumes that Democrats will get 75% of the Latino vote and 90% of the black vote. So, if these polls are correct, the only possibility is a lower percentage of Democrats supporting Biden.  If that is accurate, Trump is headed toward a landslide.

The truth is that no one knows. We just know the data is bad, beyond bad. We don’t know who is right, but we can be certain these polls are wrong. So, look at how the campaigns are going. Who can drum up a crowd of about 25,000 people in Minden, NV? Have you been to Minden?  It is nice place, but wow! Biden, on the other hand, has trouble filling a phone booth. If he campaigns one day, the next day he is too exhausted to move. He has been caught reading interview answers from a teleprompter. The other day he bragged about Corvettes, while speaking at a Ford plant. Anyone who has ever lived in Michigan knows that this was beyond dumb. Kamala Harris is not much better. She isn’t exactly drawing big crowds and she makes Biden look like a gifted campaigner in comparison.

There are about 50 days before election. Anything can happen, but right now it is the Biden campaign that is showing signs of panic, and Trump is clearly feeling his oats.

One final thought. Election night is guaranteed to be a mess, like the Iowa Caucus results. The only thing certain is uncertainty. Hillary Clinton has already told us the game plan. Regardless of results on November 3, Democrats plan to keep on counting until they find a way to win. But this assumes something not in evidence. The assumption is that the democratic base is capable of properly completing a mail in ballot. That may be a false assumption. Just look at the results in recent primary elections. Thousands of ballots have been disqualified and that problem may be insurmountable. Democrats may plan on winning this at the Supreme Court, with the election turning on a world class amount of hanging chads. But even the Roberts Supreme Court is unlikely to do that. The one thing certain is that no one on the Supreme Court wants to decide the results of a general election. The liberals on the court are biased enough but not dumb enough to do that. Regardless of how many mail-in ballots are used, if you can’t fill them out properly, your vote won’t count. Democrats will resort to fraud and vote harvesting, but they don’t have the logistics to pull this off nationally. Yes, they can swing results in a place like New Jersey or even Orange County, but they can’t pull this off nationwide. Even with widespread mail-in ballots, Lincoln got this right. You can fool some of the people all the time and all the people some of the time, but you can’t fool all the people all of the time. November 3, 2020 will prove Lincoln right again.

TDM

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