MAY DAY

On May 16, 1972 George W. Wallace, won the Democratic Party primary in Michigan. He beat George McGovern and Hubert Humphrey. Many people believe that this was the result of Republicans and Independents crossing over to vote for the worst Democratic candidate. A racist southern governor was just too delicious to ignore. I suspect they are right about that. I certainly know a lot of friends and relatives who were living in Michigan at the time who did exactly that. That is one reason many states changed the rules preventing someone from voting for a candidate from another party. I remember when we moved to California, I registered as an independent. Then the primary election came around and found out I couldn’t actually vote for anyone.

Well, bless my soul, New Hampshire still has an open primary. Any voter who is registered as undeclared, or registers as undeclared, can vote in either party’s primary. Trump had a rally yesterday in New Hampshire and he literally urged New Hampshire independents to vote for the weakest Democratic candidate. At least some of them are likely to listen.

So, when you watch the news tonight, remember that sometimes worst comes in first. It would be beyond hysterical if Joe Biden were to surge, not because he is actually doing well, but because he isn’t. Almost anything is possible. The only thing certain is uncertainty.

Also, note that no matter what happens it will be worse than it was four years ago. In 2016 Sanders got about 60% of the vote in New Hampshire. He is extremely unlikely to do that. That was only possible because his only competition was Hillary Clinton. Ironically, Hillary got about 38% of the New Hampshire vote in 2016, and if Bernie gets 38% this year, he will be the big winner. It is hard to explain how someone is winning big time when they get about half the vote they got last time.  But, that is almost certain to happen.

TDM

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