The Sacramento Bee published a field poll today that showed Boxer ahead of Fiorina by 47% to 41%. However, I looked into the internals and this poll is extremely misleading. Here is how they arrived at that number:
They interviewed 599 likely voters. They assumed that 44% of people who will vote in California will be Democrats, 35 percent will be Republicans and the rest will be independents. This means they probably surveyed 264 Democrats, 210 Republicans and 125 independents. With that kind of sampling, one would expect Boxer to end up with more than 50% of the vote because it is so heavily skewed toward Democrats. (Almost all field polls use this same technique, which is why they so often underestimate actual Republican vote totals). This poll is actually very bad news for Boxer, because in spite of oversampling Democrats, she still only gets 47%.
Republican voter enthusiasm is at least 50% higher than Democratic enthusiasm in any poll and Republican voter turnout is often double what it was in 2008. If that happens in California and this poll is accurate, Boxer is doomed. Even if Republicans are only 30% more likely to vote than Democrats, Boxer loses in a close election. In addition, independents are moving away from the Democratic party in droves.
Barbara Boxer cannot get over 47% in any poll. Her unfavorable rating is 48%, which is extremely high. She has outspent Fiorina about 12 to 1 so far. While she has driven Fiorina’s negatives higher, they still top out at 38%, 10 points lower than Boxer.
When an incumbent polls below 50%, this close to an election, they almost always lose. Boxer has taken her best shot and missed. Now Fiorina is going to start spending money and she is going to take on Boxer. Her first ad shows Boxer dishing the General for daring to call her Ma’am, rather than Senator.
Even if Boxer was really ahead 47% to 41% there would be a good chance that Fiorina wins, since most undecideds go toward the opponent. If people aren’t already convinced to vote for an incumbent, they are unlikely to change their mind between now and the election. I suspect Democrats know that, which is why Obama is out here doing all those fund raisers. They know that if Boxer loses in California, the Democrats have a very hard time holding the Senate. When an incumbent like Boxer in a blue State like California feels the need to outspend her opponent by a 12 to 1 margin it is a sign of absolute desperation.
The bottom line is never take a poll at face value, particularly if it is a California Field Poll. My personal prediction is that Boxer goes all down hill from here and people will be shocked by how badly Fiorina beats her in the General Election. This is one Boxer Rebellion that could be a very good thing.
TDM