PREACHING TO A SHRINKING CHOIR

Here in California we are assaulted with a ton of ads for Democratic politicians. I watched an ad for Gavin Newsom and at first I thought it was a John Cox ad. The ad hammers Cox for supporting Trump, for wanting lower taxes, for securing the border and for protecting the second amendment.  Newsom is praised for resisting Trump, resisting the NRA, protecting us from global warming and expanding ObamaCare.

Obviously the people running these campaigns think they have the winning argument.  However there are opinion polls that put serious doubt on these assumptions. If these polls are accurate, a majority of people in California want increased border security, they aren’t laying awake at night terrified about global warming and they actually don’t mind tax cuts.  Those who are actually paying for ObamaCare are far less enthusiastic than those getting a free ride.

Ari Fleischer was on Fox the other night and he pointed this out.  He said that while CNN and MSNBC have a very loyal base, that base is shrinking rapidly. He said liberals are confusing the opinions of the diehard liberals on CNN and MSNBC with the opinions of real people. I thought he was exaggerating this, until I started seeing those ads.  Perhaps a majority of people in California really are buying this nonsense, but perhaps it is liberals who are delusional. It wouldn’t be the first time.

Rob Moore was defeated in Alabama, not because he was too conservative but rather because his opponents successfully painted him as a slime ball.  His opponent is far more conservative than most Democratic Senators.

The same thing happened in other races. Democrats won elections with military veterans who looked and sounded pretty conservative. The last time Democrats took control of the House that was their strategy.  They ran a lot of people who looked more conservative until they got in office and learned that Nancy Pelosi doesn’t tolerate independent thought.

This year, Democrats running for election are assuming that a majority of the voting public is motivated by far left positions on every issue. If only Democrats voted, they probably would be right.  But there are fewer Democrats than there was when Obama was elected. One of the reasons I predicted a Trump win in 2016 was this specific factor. All of the polls were assuming voter turnout levels similar to 2008. That isn’t close to what happened.

It is hard to imagine any outcome other than liberal Democrats getting elected, again, in California.  We have seen this script too many times before. But last August I wrote a blog titled: “What Color Is California.”

http://scotshonor.com/?p=3701

California is switching to mail in ballots. While this may appear to benefit Democrats because they have a larger grass roots organization capable of “helping” people fill out their ballot, it may have the opposite effect. It is not always easy to see who filled out a mail-in ballot, but this creates a record of everyone who voted. That means the list of resident citizens of voting age can be compared to people who voted. Judicial Watch is all over this:

https://www.judicialwatch.org/press-room/press-releases/judicial-watch-warns-california-clean-voter-registration-lists-face-federal-lawsuit/

Allegations of wide-spread voter fraud are ignored by the press. The standard answer is that “there’s no evidence of that.” However absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. If Judicial Watch is right and 11 California counties have more registered voters than residence citizens of voting age, then wide-spread voter fraud in California seems pretty likely.

Many people have given up on this state ever electing a politician that is remotely acceptable.  Democrats seem to always choose the worst possible candidate and they seem to always coast to victory. It is far too soon to develop false hope, but things have changed. Other states, like Wisconsin and Michigan have already changed from blue to red. On the other hand, I know of no state that has switched from red to blue. I repeat, “What Color Is California.”

TDM

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