Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney in 2012 because 90% of Democrats voted for Obama and Democratic turnout was 9% higher than Republican turnout. It was the ninety and nine that defeated Mitt Romney. The question is whether the ninety and nine will show up this year.
All of the pundits are predicting voter turnout to be Democrat 37%, Republican 29 to 30% and Independent 33%. The Denver Post just reported on early voting in Denver:
“The latest early voting numbers released Monday morning show registered Republicans cast 652,380 ballots compared to 645,020 registered Democrats — a 7,360 vote GOP advantage. The breakdown looks like this: 35.2 percent Republican, 34.8 percent Democrat and 28.5 percent unaffiliated.”
The Clinton campaign thought they were safely ahead in Colorado. These results have to be a major shock. Voter turnout is way up, but unlike 2012 it is not just Democrats showing up at the polls. If this percentage holds up nationwide, the ninety and nine turns into the ninety and none and Trump wins.