If you want to evaluate poll results, it is important to look at the data, not the headline. For example today’s IDB/TIPP Presidential Poll shows a virtual tie, with Clinton 45% and Trump 44%. But you should not assume that this means they called 1000 people and 450 chose Clinton and 440 chose Trump. That is not what happened at all. They take the results and then adjust them for expected turnout.
Here are some results in the same poll that should be terrifying the Clinton camp.
Preference by Party:
………………………………….. Clinton Trump
Democrats 87% 5%
Republicans 4% 87%
Independents 33% 48%
Black 86% 5%
Hispanic 48% 33%
Single Women 60% 28%
Married Women 43% 46%
Men 38% 50%
Female 50% 39%
If turnout matches voter registration according to Gallop, it will be 30% Democrat, 30% Republican and 40% Independent. Clinton and Trump tie among people registered as Republicans or Democrats. Trump wins by 16 points among independents. This means that the only way this race looks close is assuming that Democrats show up at the polls in much higher numbers than Republicans.
Now factor in this. Hillary supporters are demoralized. Only the paid Democratic talking heads are pretending she has a positive agenda. They are just ‘xplaining’ why we should believe them rather than our lying eyes. Donald Trump supporters, on the other hand, have been saying they think they are winning. After looking at the above data, it is obvious that they have an argument.
As for early voting, in Florida alone Blacks have so far made up 15% of the early vote. By this time in 2012, they were at 25%.
So far, early voting every where is about as expected. People who admit who they voted for are showing Clinton with a 54% to 41% edge. Trump leads 50% to 39% among those looking to vote on Election Day. Remember that exit polls are notoriously inaccurate because they ALWAYS overstate the Democratic vote. That is why CNN thought Gore was winning in 2000 and they thought Kerry was winning in 2004.
There is more, 77% of Independents who lean Democrat support Hillary while 80% of Independents who lean Republican support Trump. Those who don’t lean toward either party support Trump 53% to 28%.
If these numbers are accurate, Hillary only wins if there is a sudden surge of Democratic voters or the Democrats find a way to steal millions of votes. Democrats are very good at winning in big cities where Democratic machines operate things, but they can’t manipulate the whole country. That is why only 7 states are current controlled by Democrats.
If there is a bombshell aimed at Donald Trump, Democrats better deliver it sooner rather than later.