UNDER THE BUS!

President Obama personally threw Hillary Clinton under the bus. He sent John Earnest out to say that he does not believe FBI Director James Comey is secretly trying to influence the election outcome.

White House spokesman Josh Earnest said that the Administration will neither defend nor criticize Comey’s decision to inform Congress about the new Hillary Clinton-related emails. He added that the White House has no recommendations for Comey over what information to give to the public, regarding the Clinton-related email probe.

Earnest said the White House has no independent knowledge as to why Comey decided to send Congress a letter about the emails. He added that the president believes the FBI director is a man of integrity and good character.

The fact that Obama send Earnest out to deliver this message is significant. At a minimum, this will have a devastating impact on black support for Hillary Clinton. I have always suspected that the Obama’s despise the Clintons. I was a little surprised that Michelle Obama was campaigning with Hillary. Then I noticed something significant. It was Hillary who introduced Michelle. She must have been absolutely desperate to do that. My hunch is that the Clinton campaign polling with regard to black voters is beyond bad. Odds are Michelle Obama extracted a very high price for this charade. But that was so yesterday, or at least so before black Friday. I will be extremely surprised to see any more Michelle Obama appearances on behalf of Hillary Clinton. As JFK once said, “victory has 1,000 fathers but defeat is an orphan.

Hillary may be heading toward a world class collapse in the polls. She will almost certainly launch a kamakazi attack on Donald Trump, trying desperately to make him look even worse. This is unlikely to work and will just provide further proof that Hillary is beyond desperate. There are even rumors she is going to try and raise the “daisy” commercial used by LBJ against Barry Goldwater in 1964. But there is a problem. That commercial didn’t actually work. Goldwater was gaining in the polls until Johnson used a minor incident regarding two U.S. destroyers to justify a full scale war against North Vietnam. Obama isn’t likely to start a war to save Hillary.

Now the MSM is trying to convince us that Hillary has already won because of early voting. Here is the article from the New York Times:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/31/us/politics/early-voting-trump-clinton.html?_r=0

If you actually look at the data, it is far from certain that the early voting favors Hillary at all.

Republicans are leading Democrats in Florida. Democrats are counting on Hispanic voters to go all in on Hillary.

Democrats have a lead in early voting in North Carolina, but they are way behind where they were in 2012 and Republicans are running ahead of 2012.

 Black voter turnout is down 17%.

The MSM is trying to convince themselves that Hillary can still win this. Yet the polling results today paint a very different picture. According to several polls at least 30% of likely voters have said they are less likely to vote for Clinton because of this scandal. This is nothing short of catastrophic. Let’s assume that Hillary Clinton is currently leading Trump 55% to 45%. Let’s assume that she was leading expected voters 55% to 45%. No one is claiming Hillary is that far ahead. Let’s assume that none of the people who now refuse to vote for Hillary switch to Trump. The only impact is that 30% of the people planning on voting for Hillary don’t vote. The result would be that Trump wins by a significant margin, about 52% to 48%. That is close to the worst case for Trump and he still wins easily.

If 30% of expected voters do switch to Trump, he wins by about 58% to 42%. If the election was really close, prior to this change, then Trump wins by about 60% to 40%. It is quite simple. If 30% of voters are really less likely to vote for Hillary, she is going to lose in a landslide and she will take a ton of down ticket Democrats with her. Expect Democrats to panic. The Clinton campaign will throw the kitchen sink at Trump and down ticket Democrats will be desperately trying to leave a rapidly sinking ship.

TDM

Leave a Reply