FOR WHOM THE SMELL POLLS

Have you noticed something lately? The MSM has really backed off reporting poll results. When they do report them, they now focus solely on “likely voters.” Regardless of what the poll says we can expect some delusional pundit to predict that Hillary is going to win. I know a lot of people who believe that Hillary will win, regardless of circumstances. But there is actual data that hints at a very different outcome.

The times and the numbers are a changing and there are definitely more minority voters. A lot of people assume this means more Democratic voters. But so far that has now proven to be true in actual election results. Prior to the November 2014 elections, estimates were that 43% of Americans were Democrats and 39% were Republicans. After the November 2014 election that changed to 41% Democratic and 42% Republican. There were also a record number of people registering as independents.

That is not the only change. In 2010, there were 26 Democratic Governors, 23 Republican Governors and one independent. As of 2016 there are 11 Democratic Governors, 31 Republican Governors and one independent. In 2010 Democrats controlled 17 state legislatures, Republicans controlled 10 and 24 were split. In 2016 Democrats control 7 state legislatures, Republicans control 23 state legislators and 20 are split. Still want to assume the country is becoming more Democratic?

Last summer there were sixteen legitimate candidates for the Republican nomination. Democrats had four and ended up with two. One of these two was a 74 year old wild haired socialist. Right now there are at least some Democrats developing contingency plans in the event Hillary has to withdraw from the election. Can you name the top candidate(s) to replace Hillary? I rest my case.

In addition the polls are nonsense. They are all based primarily on telephone surveys using hopelessly obsolete technology. On the night of BREXIT, the polls were so favorable for a no vote that after the polls closed David Cameron and others were hosting champagne classes to celebrate their victory. The next morning when the real votes were counted the results were so bad that Cameron announced his resignation as Prime Minister.

Many people don’t even have land line phones anymore and almost everyone has some form of caller ID. If you call my home, and I don’t recognize you, odds are very high I will not answer the phone. If the call is from an 800 number or an out of state number there is zero chance I will answer the phone. In addition, we use our phones very differently today. Phones used to be used to talk to other people. Now smart phones are used to surf the web, take selfies and text people, etc. It is rare to see anyone actually talking on the phone. This means the polls are based on a rapidly shrinking and increasingly unrepresentative portion of the population. To make matters worse, as I mentioned earlier, recent polls have started focusing on “likely voters” rather than “registered voters.” I’m sure it is just a coincidence that this change started when Hillary starting sinking in the polls. Without this adjustment, Hillary is doing much worse that what is being reported.

The point being that one is smart to ignore all the professional pundits on the MSM. If the only change is the percentage of people who now registered as Republicans rather than Democrats, Donald Trump wins this election by a slim margin. So far, every poll shows Trump doing much better among Independents than Hillary. If there really is a big increase in the number of independents and Donald Trump is leading among independents, then Hillary is on the path to losing by a world class landslide.

There’s more. In a recent poll, Donald Trump was polling 20% of the black vote. That seems hard to believe, but a lot of things about Trump seem hard to believe. If that is true, Hillary has zero chance of winning the election. Every pundit admits that Hillary needs 90% of the black vote to win. Even if Trump only gets 10% of the black vote, that greatly increases his odds of winning the election.

Note, I am not predicting anything, I am just reporting documented facts. I have no clue what will happen and neither does anyone else. I just know that the current voter turnout models are pure crap and in every recent major election the polls have been wrong by enormous margins. The pundits predict that high turnout means the Democrats win. But that didn’t happen this year. There was high turnout in Iowa and Ted Cruz won. Later there was high turnout and Donald Trump won. The consistent pattern was that the strongest anti-establishment candidate was the one who benefited from high turnout. That is the polar opposite of what the MSM expected. It is the polar opposite of what the pundits expected.

The MSM believes that the Hillary e-mail scandal and the Clinton Foundation scandals are just distractions. They are wrong about that.  Even though the polls are highly flawed, they still yield some very important information. Every recent poll also shows that a majority of Americans think both of these are really big deals. Both candidates have very high disapproval ratings. But there is a huge difference between the reasons for the disapproval. They don’t like Donald Trump because he insults people, demonstrates immaturity and is a self-centered narcissist. They don’t like Hillary because she was extremely careless with National Security and she lied about it. They are also concerned about the obvious pay for play system poorly disguised as the Clinton Foundation.  The MSM may not recognize this as shameless bribery, but a lot of Americans have figured that out.   It is not so much that people don’t like Hillary, they flat out don’t trust her.

We are inundated with a barrage of MSM broadcasts trying to explain why the problems with Donald Trump as just as important as the problems with Hillary’s constant lying. Actually, they try to discount Hillary’s problems and magnify Donald Trump’s problems. The result has been that trust for the MSM has dropped to an all-time low. Just recently I took a step back and suddenly everything became clear. This election is between a spoiled brat and an adult serial offender. Donald Trump is a spoiled brat, but there is hope that at some point he might just grow up. Hillary is an adult serial offender. There is zero chance she will change. The choice is beyond pathetic but hope is a better option than insanity.

TDM

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