Donald Trump won in New Hampshire. That really matters, but it is important to remember that New Hampshire is an open primary state. Democrats and Independents can and do vote in the Republican primary. This reminds me of the 1972 Michigan primary. There was no race on the Republican side because Richard Nixon was running unopposed. So a lot of Republicans crossed over and voted for, wait for it, George Wallace. Wallace ended up winning the Democratic primary. This was not because Republicans in Michigan were all secret racists. A lot of them wanted to pick the worst possible candidate for the Democrats. Plus it was fun watching Democrats, who claim to be the party of civil rights, try to explain how a Southern racist won their primary. It was great sport but not necessarily that significant.
We can be sure that some Democrats voted for Trump because they like him. But some voted for him because they think he is the worst possible choice for Republicans. This does not mean they would automatically vote for Trump in the general election. In addition, Trump was often profane and vulgar in New Hampshire. Voters in New Hampshire just laughed and shrugged it off. Don’t assume he will get the same response in places like South Carolina.
It was even more significant for John Kasich. I saw one interview where this woman was torn between Hillary Clinton and John Kasich. Nice! Kasich basically moved to New Hampshire and ran as a moderate Republican openly appealing to liberals. Good luck with that in South Carolina.
The surprise was that Ted Cruz, who rarely visited New Hampshire, spent very little money there and was ignored by the main stream media still came in third. To put this in perspective, Ted Cruz spent $700,000 in New Hampshire but still finished ahead of Jeb Bush who spent $35 million. In addition, the media praised Jeb Bush for his great debate performance while rarely mentioning Cruz. Last week Ted Cruz ran a total of 29 ads, while Kasich, Bush, Rubio and Christie inflicted the New Hampshire voters with 1,435 ads. The bottom line is that if Bush, Rubio and Christie could not beat Cruz in New Hampshire they can’t beat him anywhere.
John Kasich is out of money and has no organization. He is not likely to do well in South Carolina. Chris Christie appears to be folding his tents. No surprise there. It doesn’t matter what Fiorina, Carson or Gilmore do. Bush is going storm into South Carolina and he is even going to trot out “W.” Odds are high he will still finish behind Cruz and if that happens he is toast. Perhaps Rubio will stage a comback, but first he has to endure a week where Kasich and Bush are both out to destroy him. Even if he survives that, he has yet to beat Cruz anywhere. Unless something changes, this will soon be a two man race between Trump and Cruz. Before anyone assumes Trump will win that battle, remember that Trump has a 60% unfavorability rating. That means there are 2 “no Trumps” for every “Trump.” At some point, that will really matter.
Ted Cruz has a nationwide organization and more cash than Bush, Rubio, Kasich, and Christie combined. While everyone else was launching stupid and ineffective personal attacks on Donald Trump, Cruz was keeping his power dry. When he did take on Trump, in Iowa, he hurt him big time. It is always a good idea to pay attention to the man who is keeping his power dry. At some point, he is going to use it.
TDM