PERRY WATCH

So far, Rick Perry is the invisible candidate.  Just today there are reports that he is no longer able to pay his staff.  Some in the media think the end is near.  They could be right.  They could also be very wrong.  I am reminded that in the summer of 2007, the John McCain campaign was in meltdown.  He was invisible in the polls.  He stopped paying his staff and his top aides were deserting him.  I was convinced that John McCain was done as a candidate for President.  I was wrong.  McCain ultimately won the nomination because it came down to three candidates, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney and John McCain.  While Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney rained on each other’s parade, McCain snuck in the back door.  He turned out to be a lousy nominee, but the point is that in the summer of 2007 no one, and I mean no one, even gave him a chance at the nomination.

Perry has to do something, sooner rather than later, but he is not dead yet.  This is the era of the Super Pac and while Perry’s campaign has run out of money, the Super Pac supporting him has a ton of cash.   I firmly believe that of the seventeen candidates, at least 12 of them are wasting their time because they have zero chance of winning the nomination.  I will start with Donald Trump.  While he is soaring in the polls, it is only because the vote is being split 17 ways.  At some point Donald will be up against only one or two opponents and then the negatives will take over.  I doubt seriously that Trump can win this.  I also doubt that any of the following can win the nomination, for a lot of reasons: Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, George Pataki, Rand Paul, and Rick Santorum.  That leaves only five candidates with a realistic chance at being the next President.

These are Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio and Scott Walker.  Right now Perry is gasping for air, but that is because the room is filled by 12 candidates with no real chance at the nomination sucking the air out of the room.  No one seems to notice that Rick Perry has the most impressive resume in the room.  All anyone can remember is that he went brain dead on national TV.  That is a huge mistake.  Perry is a very capable man and has a very significant record of accomplished leadership.

I really like Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and Scot Walker, but in my personal opinion all of them are too young.  Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are only 44 years old and Scott Walker is only 47.  In eight years, the oldest of the group will only be 55.  What on earth does one done when he is done being President at age 55?  Think Teddy Roosevelt and the disaster of the Bull Moose Party that put Woodrow Wilson in the White House.  On the other hand, if they don’t make it this time, they will still be young enough to try again in eight years and again in sixteen years.  As for Ted Cruz, I want him on the Supreme Court, not in the White House.

I like John Kasich, but don’t trust his conservative values.  He looks too much like a RINO to me. He is just too willing to compromise. We cannot afford another Republican establishment candidate.   That leaves Rick Perry, who is 65.  Perry has the right amount of experience, he has the right values, he is mean enough to do the job, and after eight years he will be at the right age to move on into retirement.  I doubt that the voters will see it this way, but that is the way I see it.  Right now, I just hope he stays in long enough for people to at least give him a fair consideration.

TDM