The idea appears to be to confront Ayatollah Khomeini with a choice between dealing with the moderates or facing military intervention and massive repression. The situation itself suggests that such a coup might be attempted if the Ayatollah goes for a takeover. <\/span><\/strong><\/p>\nNo was predicting that the Ayatollah Khomeini would take over in Iran.\u00a0 Instead, they felt that if he \u201ctried\u201d to take over there would be a military coup and even more repression.\u00a0 The \u201cexperts\u201d expected the Ayatollah Khomeini to moderate.\u00a0 But moderation is not in the Muslim extremist dictionary.\u00a0 As we all know, those predictions were very wrong.\u00a0 Within a very short period of time the Muslim extremists took over. \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
There is one big difference between the situation in Iran and that in Egypt.\u00a0 In this case what really happened was a military coup.\u00a0\u00a0 In Iran, there was a coalition government.\u00a0 \u00a0The protestors are celebrating a major victory, because they successfully forced Mubarak out.\u00a0 But, he was not exactly replaced with a coalition government.\u00a0 Instead the military took direct control, which means the Egyptian constitution is no longer in effect.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>\n
This could go in one of two directions quite quickly.\u00a0 The military may decide that they have learned from Iran, and they may move in boldly to re-establish control.\u00a0 They would allow the people to celebrate, tell them they have won, and get them to go home.\u00a0 Then, quietly when the cameras are turned off, they would re-take control.\u00a0 It would not be surprising for them to clamp down hard on the Muslim Brotherhood and anyone else they consider to be a threat.\u00a0 If this happens, the military government may be even more repressive than now.\u00a0 Suleiman will probably be the public face of the new government.\u00a0 But, if things don\u2019t calm down, the military will probably put someone else in place.\u00a0 The military, not the constitutional government, now runs Egypt.<\/p>\n
The protests may also be far from over.\u00a0 There does not appear to be any leader that the people are willing to accept.\u00a0 The protests appear to be focused on getting Mubarak to go.\u00a0 Ok, he\u2019s gone.\u00a0 What now?\u00a0 Do they go home and celebrate victory?\u00a0 Or do just keep upping the ante?\u00a0 The only leaders available seem to be connected with the Muslim Brotherhood.\u00a0 Fortunately, so far, most of the protestors do not appear to be very interested in turning Egypt over to the Muslim Brotherhood.\u00a0 That means is there is no leader.\u00a0 Since there is no leader, this could literally head off in almost any direction.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The people in Egypt are feeling great, but unfortunately, not necessarily thinking great.\u00a0 It is precisely at these times that tyrants often seize opportunity.\u00a0 The Muslim Brotherhood will try to slip their guy in, probably disguised as a moderate.\u00a0 The military will try to retain control.\u00a0 Both the Muslim Brotherhood and the military will\u00a0lie about their true intentions.\u00a0 One will never be satisfied with anything less than a true Islamic state.\u00a0 The other is unlikely to willingly turn over control to democratic civilian rule.<\/p>\n
We could get lucky.\u00a0 There could be a moderate Egyptian General that is both capable of taking over and willing to facilitate true democracy.\u00a0 \u00a0But, such people are very rare.\u00a0 One tyrant is often exchanged for another.\u00a0 South Africa was blessed with Nelson Mandela.\u00a0 However, most countries are not nearly that fortunate.\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
The Obama administration continues to be clueless.\u00a0 The daily, if not hourly, flip flops on this situation have made them look foolish.\u00a0 In addition Capper, our head of intelligence, said that he considers the Muslim Brotherhood to be a \u201csecular organization.\u201d\u00a0 That is absurd.\u00a0 If the Obama administration really believes that, they are hopelessly na\u00efve.\u00a0 It is, after all the \u201cMUSLIM<\/strong> Brotherood.\u201d\u00a0 One would think that would provide an important clue.\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\nRegardless of what happens in Egypt, the overthrow of Mubarak means that these protests will spread throughout the Middle East.\u00a0 They are also likely to spread to places like Iran and China.\u00a0 The fuse has been lit.\u00a0\u00a0 Much of the world is on fire and it is far from being controlled.\u00a0 We do not know how far or how fast it will spread, but we do know that it won\u2019t stop in Egypt.\u00a0 U.S. insurance carriers that specialize in global risk are strongly warning U.S. companies to prepare for worst case scenarios with regard to evacuating personnel.\u00a0 We seldom realize our greatest hopes or our worst fears.\u00a0 In Egypt we are likely to get one or the other.\u00a0 Because of the speed at which this is moving, the lack of leadership in Egypt and the incompetence of the Obama administration, a bad result seems more likely than not.<\/p>\n
Obama was just on TV, celebrating the party.\u00a0 I wonder if he will be as thrilled about the coming hangover.<\/p>\n
TDM<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Watching the Egyptian people celebrate is like watching the ultimate party.\u00a0 But, following every party there has to be a morning after.\u00a0 Egypt is probably going to experience a gigantic hangover.\u00a0 For those who are celebrating the resignation of Hosni … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-665","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-latest-headlines"],"yoast_head":"\nTHERE'S GOT TO BE A MORNING AFTER! - SCOTS HONOR<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/scotshonor.com\/?p=665\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"THERE'S GOT TO BE A MORNING AFTER! 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