{"id":530,"date":"2010-10-31T22:34:55","date_gmt":"2010-11-01T05:34:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/scotshonor.com\/?p=530"},"modified":"2010-10-31T23:08:16","modified_gmt":"2010-11-01T06:08:16","slug":"what-did-dela-wear-boys","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/scotshonor.com\/?p=530","title":{"rendered":"WHAT DID DELA WEAR BOYS?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00a0Barack Obama made a major stop in Delaware yesterday. So did Joe Biden.\u00a0 According to the main stream media Coons has an insurmountable lead over O\u2019Donnell.\u00a0 The polls are so bad that Karl Rove couldn\u2019t even bring himself to say he thought she had a chance to win when pressed by O\u2019Reilly.\u00a0 Yet, Democrats are obviously worried.\u00a0 There may be\u00a0good reason for them to be concerned.\u00a0 I looked at the internals of the latest poll showing that Coons\u00a0up by 10 points.\u00a0 That result, like most other polls, depends on voter turnout being similar to 2008.\u00a0 That assumes that\u00a043% of voters will be\u00a0Democrats, 31% will be\u00a0Republicans and 26% will be Independents.\u00a0 If you use that turnout model then the poll which has 85% of Democrats voting for Coons and 79% of Republicans voting for O\u2019Donnell produces a 10% win.\u00a0 But, that turnout is very unlikely in this election cycle.\u00a0 At a minimum, Republican turnout is probably going to be much higher than it was in 2008 and Democratic turnout much lower.\u00a0 In addition this poll showed Independents supporting O\u2019Donnell by a significant margin.\u00a0 If more \u00a0Republicans and Independents vote than Democrats, this could be a very close race.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

It is hard for anyone, including me, to predict O\u2019Donnell winning in a red state like Delaware.\u00a0 That is doubly true because she has been crucified in the main stream media and has become a nationwide laughingstock.\u00a0 But a couple of recent developments give me pause.\u00a0 It is clear from all the polls that O\u2019Donnell is surging.\u00a0 It also seems like\u00a0Coons made a huge mistake.\u00a0 His campaign paid to have someone make up a clearly false sex scandal about O\u2019Donnell.\u00a0 That made a lot of women, including liberal women, absolutely furious.\u00a0 It was beyond despicable.\u00a0 It was also really stupid.\u00a0 Democrats have always enjoyed a huge advantage with Women voters.\u00a0 Coon\u2019s has risked losing that advantage with this bizarre stunt.\u00a0 I still wouldn\u2019t bet on O\u2019Donnell pulling this off, but I also wouldn\u2019t be shocked if she won.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The latest news is that even Nat Silver from the NYT is admitting that Republicans are going to do a lot better than he expected.\u00a0 He not only expects people like Harry Reid to lose, he wouldn’t be surprised to seem them\u00a0lose by big margins.\u00a0 His article appears to be more of a post mortem than a prediction.\u00a0 This is astonishing, because Silver has historically over estimated Democratic results, particularly during this election cycle:<\/p>\n

\u00a0http:\/\/fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com\/2010\/10\/31\/5-reasons-republicans-could-do-even-better-than-expected\/<\/a><\/p>\n

What’s interesting is\u00a0that Silver, like all liberals, is incapable of understanding that this election is a rejection of liberal policies.\u00a0 He has five reasons why Democrats are \u201clikely to lose.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u00a01.\u00a0\u00a0 Downballot races.\u00a0\u00a0Republican candidates at the local level are doing very well and that will impact the top of the ticket races.\u00a0 This is sort of the reverse shirt tails argument.<\/p>\n

2.\u00a0\u00a0 Unlikely Voters.\u00a0 People voted who weren\u2019t expected to vote turned out for this election.\u00a0<\/p>\n

3.\u00a0 The Incumbent Rule.\u00a0 When things are going badly, incumbents lose.<\/p>\n

4.\u00a0\u00a0 The Scott Brown effect.\u00a0\u00a0 Republicans are energized because for the first time in a long time they think their vote may actually count.<\/p>\n

5.\u00a0\u00a0 Bad Voter Turnout Models.\u00a0 The Democratic turnouts in 2006 and 2008 were unusually high and are unlikely to be repeated.<\/p>\n

Some of these arguments have merit, but like most liberals, Silver just doesn\u2019t get it.\u00a0 This election is mostly about people who are furious at both parties for their tax, tax, tax and spend, spend, and spend agendas.\u00a0 Democrats are in trouble because they are in control and they are getting the lion\u2019s share of the blame.\u00a0 But, Republicans have also been much quicker to adopt to the tea party movement.\u00a0 They are far more likely to understand why people are peeved and they are at least pretending to listen.\u00a0 In addition, thanks to the tea party, there are some very conservative candidates running as Republicans who appear ready, willing and able to stand up to the Republican establishment.\u00a0 These are not your grandfather’s Republicans.\u00a0<\/p>\n

There is one other factor that may prove to be very significant.\u00a0 In previous elections Democrats won because of overwhelming union support.\u00a0 That is not working as well this year.\u00a0 The Supreme Court rejected parts of McCain Feingold and business organizations, like the Chamber of Commerce, have taken advantage of this.\u00a0 This has leveled the playing field significantly compared to previous elections where unions often spent millions buying elections.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

In addition, in this economy, public sector employees are no longer viewed as favorably.\u00a0 \u00a0It has become more and more obvious that a lot of public sector employee are enjoying a much better lifestyle than the rest of us and they are doing it with our tax dollars.\u00a0 In other words there is a significant public sector union backlash building.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

So what did Dela Wear Boys.\u00a0 She wore a New Jersey and with a little luck it could even turn out to be red.\u00a0<\/p>\n

TDM<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00a0Barack Obama made a major stop in Delaware yesterday. So did Joe Biden.\u00a0 According to the main stream media Coons has an insurmountable lead over O\u2019Donnell.\u00a0 The polls are so bad that Karl Rove couldn\u2019t even bring himself to say … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-530","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-latest-headlines"],"yoast_head":"\nWHAT DID DELA WEAR BOYS? - SCOTS HONOR<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/scotshonor.com\/?p=530\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"WHAT DID DELA WEAR BOYS? - SCOTS HONOR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u00a0Barack Obama made a major stop in Delaware yesterday. So did Joe Biden.\u00a0 According to the main stream media Coons has an insurmountable lead over O\u2019Donnell.\u00a0 The polls are so bad that Karl Rove couldn\u2019t even bring himself to say … Continue reading →\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/scotshonor.com\/?p=530\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"SCOTS HONOR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2010-11-01T05:34:55+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2010-11-01T06:08:16+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"TDM\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"TDM\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/scotshonor.com\\\/?p=530#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/scotshonor.com\\\/?p=530\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"TDM\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/scotshonor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/f189003fdcb2b335f3de16a2756e8e24\"},\"headline\":\"WHAT DID DELA WEAR BOYS?\",\"datePublished\":\"2010-11-01T05:34:55+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2010-11-01T06:08:16+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/scotshonor.com\\\/?p=530\"},\"wordCount\":842,\"commentCount\":2,\"articleSection\":[\"Headlines\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/scotshonor.com\\\/?p=530#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/scotshonor.com\\\/?p=530\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/scotshonor.com\\\/?p=530\",\"name\":\"WHAT DID DELA WEAR BOYS? - SCOTS HONOR\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/scotshonor.com\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2010-11-01T05:34:55+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2010-11-01T06:08:16+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/scotshonor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/f189003fdcb2b335f3de16a2756e8e24\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/scotshonor.com\\\/?p=530#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/scotshonor.com\\\/?p=530\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/scotshonor.com\\\/?p=530#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/scotshonor.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"WHAT DID DELA WEAR BOYS?\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/scotshonor.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/scotshonor.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"SCOTS HONOR\",\"description\":\"What is obviously true, is obviously true\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/scotshonor.com\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/scotshonor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/f189003fdcb2b335f3de16a2756e8e24\",\"name\":\"TDM\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/4e8ed801b1c503263fb6547c8f9faf3a4cea6964d874cd2797ac10a766c37d0d?s=96&d=mm&r=pg\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/4e8ed801b1c503263fb6547c8f9faf3a4cea6964d874cd2797ac10a766c37d0d?s=96&d=mm&r=pg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/4e8ed801b1c503263fb6547c8f9faf3a4cea6964d874cd2797ac10a766c37d0d?s=96&d=mm&r=pg\",\"caption\":\"TDM\"},\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/scotshonor.com\\\/?author=1\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"WHAT DID DELA WEAR BOYS? - SCOTS HONOR","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/scotshonor.com\/?p=530","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"WHAT DID DELA WEAR BOYS? - SCOTS HONOR","og_description":"\u00a0Barack Obama made a major stop in Delaware yesterday. 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