According to the LA Times, Jerry Brown is now up by 13 points.\u00a0 Yet Republicans are at least pretending that this race is competitive.\u00a0 So the question is, 1:\u00a0 how accurate is that poll and 2:\u00a0 how competitive is this race?<\/p>\n
I went through and looked at the assumptions and the questions in this poll.\u00a0 This quickly showed that the poll is deeply flawed for several reasons.\u00a0 The most important is that this is based on an assumption that turnout by party will be the same as it was in 2008, except they are expecting a 5% larger Democratic turnout.\u00a0 The entire poll is nonsense because of this assumption.\u00a0 Most people believe that right now about voter registration in California is about 44% Democrat and 36% Republican.\u00a0 Yet the people is this poll self identified themselves as\u00a0 43% Democrat and 28% Republican with 28% independent.\u00a0\u00a0 Again, nonsense.\u00a0 Obviously if you ask more Democrats than Republicans who is going to vote for the Democrat in any election, the Democrat will almost always win.\u00a0 The poll was also very lengthy and it over sampled latinos, which is standard fare for the LA Times.\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0In other words, the poll results are virtually meaningless, other than to pump up Democratic enthusiasm.\u00a0<\/p>\n
You might recall that these were the same clowns who thought Gray Davis would defeat the recall and if he did lose it would be a cliff hanger between Cruz Bustamonte and Arnold Schwartzenegger.\u00a0 Nailed that one!<\/p>\n
So what is the truth?\u00a0 The Brown\u00a0 vs Whitman race is too close to call, but Brown is slightly ahead and this is a Democratic state. \u00a0She could win this, but she needs a big Republican turnout.\u00a0 With regard to Boxer vs Fiorina, the margin is only about 3 points and Boxer is less than 50.\u00a0 Odds are that Boxer loses.<\/p>\n
Sadly we could see another 4 year term for Governor Moonbeam, but it is a bit early to Jerry to start measuring drapes.\u00a0 Whitman is going to hammer him hard over the next five days and she has a lot of ammunition.\u00a0 In addition the Republican wave is proving to be enormous and it may carry a lot of people over the top.<\/p>\n
TDM<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
According to the LA Times, Jerry Brown is now up by 13 points.\u00a0 Yet Republicans are at least pretending that this race is competitive.\u00a0 So the question is, 1:\u00a0 how accurate is that poll and 2:\u00a0 how competitive is this … Continue reading