This is going to be a very interesting week.\u00a0 I have been viewing several recent polls and a couple of patterns are clear.\u00a0 No legitimate pollster, Republican or Democrat, is now predicting that Democrats keep control of the House.\u00a0 Even the most die hard Democratic pundits are admitting that Republicans are going to win a lot of seats currently held by Democrats. \u00a0Some estimates are north of 90 seats changing hands.\u00a0 \u00a0In addition, those Democrats from Republican districts who do survive will have done so by running against Obama and against Pelosi. \u00a0Here is California virtually no one is running as a Democrat.\u00a0 Even Barbara Boxer has avoided mentioning the stimulus, Obamacare or any other of his other great accomplishments.\u00a0 Instead she is pretending to be a friend of veterans and she is slamming Carly Fiorina.<\/p>\n
The real question is how bad will it be?\u00a0 No one knows for sure, because recent polls have shown Republicans to be competitive in districts where no one thought that was remotely possible.\u00a0 For example, even Dennis Kucinich is in trouble, with his Republican opponent now within 4 percentage points.\u00a0 Unbelievable!<\/p>\n
We already know some things because of reports from states that allow early voting.\u00a0 No one is measuring actual votes, but they are measuring whether it is a registered Republican or a registered Democrat who is voting.\u00a0 The following shows some of the results.\u00a0\u00a0 I have verified these results from several sources:<\/p>\n
Following are the states where Republicans are doing very well.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Arizona\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Republicans 44%\u00a0 Democrats 34%<\/p>\n
Colorado\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Republicans 42%\u00a0 Democrats 37%<\/p>\n
Florida\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Republicans 53%\u00a0 Democrats 34%<\/p>\n
Georgia\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Republicans 58%\u00a0 Democrats 26%<\/p>\n
Nevada\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Republicans 42%\u00a0 Democrats 42%<\/p>\n
New Mexico\u00a0\u00a0 Republicans 47%\u00a0 Democrats 44%<\/p>\n
Pennsylvania\u00a0\u00a0 Republicans 56%\u00a0 Democrats 37%<\/p>\n
Democrats appear to be doing well in West Virginia, Maryland, Wisconsin and Iowa, but even Democratic pollsters expect the Republican candidate to win in all of those states, with the exception of Maryland.\u00a0 It appears that this year Democratic registered voters, particularly in blue collar states, are not necessarily voting for the Democrat.<\/p>\n
\u00a0West Virginia is very interesting, because the Democrat is the current Governor, Manchin, who is very popular.\u00a0 He was way behind until he ran an ad where he came out carrying a rife, promised to repeal \u201cthe bad parts\u201d of Obamacare and then literally shot at the proposed Cap & Trade legislation.\u00a0 This is not exactly an endorsement of Democratic Party accomplishments.\u00a0 If he wins, it will only because of his promise to break with the Democratic Party.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u00a0No current Republican Senator is considered to be at risk, and even Democratic strategists are predicting they will all be easily re-elected.\u00a0 Remarkably only 4 Democratic Senate seats are considered solid Democrat as of right now.<\/p>\n
\u00a0Here is what to expect and what to watch.\u00a0 Barbara Mikulski in Maryland and Patrick Leahy in Vermont will probably coast to re-election.\u00a0 Unless something changes, we should expect Schumer and Gillebrand in New York.\u00a0 If either New York race is even close that would be significant.\u00a0 For example Schumer is up by about 30 points and Gillebrand is up by about 19 points.\u00a0 If either race is close, that is very bad news for Democrats.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The early races to watch are the Senate races in Connecticut and Delaware.\u00a0 The conventional wisdom is that Democrats are ahead in both states, but Obama recently campaigned in both states.\u00a0 There must be some concern by the Democratic Party.\u00a0 Even if the Democrat wins, but the margin is in the low single digits, the Senate is definitely in play.\u00a0 If the Republican pulls off a win in either state, it is going to be a bloodbath for Democrats in the Senate.\u00a0 Republicans have a better chance in Connecticut than in Delaware, but this year anything could happen.\u00a0 In both states the Democrat is up by about 15% at the moment.\u00a0 Normally that would be considered a safe margin, but a lot of tea party candidates surged more than just before the election.<\/p>\n
I know a lot of people are really wondering about California.\u00a0 It is too close to call.\u00a0 The key factor is that in no poll has Barbara Boxer got more than 48% of the vote.\u00a0 Usually, if an incumbent is not over 50% the week before the election, they lose.\u00a0 If someone has not decided to vote for Barbara Boxer by now they are unlikely to change their mind.\u00a0 There are a lot more Democrats than Republicans in California, and Boxer is up by about 3 points, but she has not put this away. As of 2008, 44% of voters were Democrats and 31% were Republicans with 25% independents.\u00a0 So far, in early voting, 43% of voters have been Democrats and 39% have been Republicans.\u00a0 That is a significant Republican trend.\u00a0 If Independents move away from Barbara Boxer she will probably lose.<\/p>\n
Bad news for Republicans would be a Feingold victory in Wisconsin.\u00a0 If that happens, Democrats probably keep the Senate.\u00a0 A Manchin victory in West Virginia would not necessarily mean much with regard to other Senate races because of his personal popularity and his strategy to run against the Democratic agenda.\u00a0\u00a0 Obviously if Rubio loses in Florida, that would also be bad, as would be a win by Sestak in Pennsylvania.<\/p>\n
Final note:\u00a0 There are a ton of Republican\/Conservative groups out there that are determined to seize this opportunity.\u00a0 The Chamber of Commerce has been very active and has been effective.\u00a0 Other groups are targeting high profile states.\u00a0 That has already been effective in Alaska and Nevada.\u00a0 They are pouring money into Connecticut, Delaware, Nevada and Washington.\u00a0 Right now it appears that the RNC thinks they have a chance at 82 seats and they are spending a lot of money there.\u00a0 Previously they were focused on about 50 seats, so this is an indication they are going for the kill.<\/p>\n
Democrats are screaming bloody murder and Rep Fazio has called for the impeachment of John Roberts for the Supreme Court decision to overturn McCain-Feingold.\u00a0 That decision had a major impact on leveling the field, because in prior elections\u00a0unions would always pour in tons of last minute cash and push Democrats over the top.\u00a0 At the same time the business community was restricted from spending money during the last 30 days.\u00a0 A lot of our problems are directly related to the takeover of local, state and federal governments by public sector unions.\u00a0 I did another post over the weekend titled:\u00a0 LOOK FOR THE UNION LABEL.\u00a0<\/p>\n
TDM<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
This is going to be a very interesting week.\u00a0 I have been viewing several recent polls and a couple of patterns are clear.\u00a0 No legitimate pollster, Republican or Democrat, is now predicting that Democrats keep control of the House.\u00a0 Even … Continue reading