{"id":502,"date":"2010-10-20T13:20:39","date_gmt":"2010-10-20T20:20:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/scotshonor.com\/?p=502"},"modified":"2010-10-20T13:20:39","modified_gmt":"2010-10-20T20:20:39","slug":"a-rising-tide-lifts-all-ships","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/scotshonor.com\/?p=502","title":{"rendered":"A RISING TIDE LIFTS ALL SHIPS"},"content":{"rendered":"

We obviously won\u2019t know the final results of this election until after November 2.\u00a0 However, in evaluating this race and all the recent polls, it would be well to keep the following in mind.<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. \u00a0Most voters have already made up their mind.\u00a0 Those who have not yet decided to vote for an incumbent almost always vote for the challenger.<\/strong>\u00a0 This is a well documented fact.\u00a0 For this reason any incumbent failing to poll above 50% this late in the race is in jeopardy.\u00a0 Think Barbara Boxer and Harry Reid<\/li>\n
  2. All of the polls are based on \u201cexpected voters.\u201d<\/strong>\u00a0 All that a pollster needs to do to make it look like Democrats are catching up is assume that Democratic participation will be the same as in previous elections.\u00a0 However, that has not been true for a long time, at least as far back as the Scott Brown election in Massachusetts.<\/li>\n
  3. In recent elections all of the polls have grossly underestimated the Republican vote and also grossly underestimated the tea part influence.<\/strong>\u00a0 \u00a0That is why no one was predicting Joe Miller beating Lisa Murkowski in Alaska.\u00a0 No one was predicting Christine O\u2019Donnell beating Mike Castle in Delaware.\u00a0 The list goes on and on.\u00a0 Not only did these candidates win, they won by large margins.\u00a0 For example:\u00a0 the polls showed Joe Miller down by double digits less than a week before the election.\u00a0 Some of this can be explained by brilliant last minute media buys by the Tea Party Express, but at least some of it is the result of the polls being really wrong.<\/li>\n
  4. Nothing has happened to change this election<\/strong>.\u00a0 There has been no October surprise and Obama\u2019s campaigning has done more harm than good.\u00a0 The more campaigning by Obama, the more this becomes a nationalized election and the more Democrats lose.\u00a0<\/li>\n
  5. Democrats have only made gains in a couple of states where the Republican candidate has screwed up.\u00a0 Classic examples are New York Governor and Delaware Senate.\u00a0 Democrats may pick off one or two candidates, but they cannot stop a rising tide.<\/strong><\/li>\n
  6. The numbers to really watch are Gallup.<\/strong>\u00a0 They are predicting a 17 point Republican advantage based on normal turnout.\u00a0 They consider an average turnout to be about 40%.\u00a0 But, they are still predicting a 12 point Republican advantage if there is a high turnout of about 55%.\u00a0 But, in my personal opinion, that this year is different and if there is a high turnout it is likely to be even more Republican.\u00a0 If that is true, then anything could happen.<\/li>\n
  7. None of the polls are really taking the Gallup results into consideration.<\/strong>\u00a0 Even Rasmussen does not do that.\u00a0 The reason is that the pollsters are terrified of being wrong.\u00a0 If they are wrong they don\u2019t want someone accusing them of having made a material difference in technique.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    The bottom line is that this election will probably be unlike any other.\u00a0 Just think of all that has happened this year.\u00a0 Scott Brown, a Republican, won Ted Kennedy\u2019s old Senate Seat.\u00a0 Several incumbent senators have been picked off in primaries by underfinanced unknowns.\u00a0 Others, like Evan Bayh and Christopher Dodd, didn\u2019t even bother to run for re-election because they knew they were going to lose.\u00a0 There is a high tide and a storm surge coming that will lift all ships.\u00a0 The only question remaining is the ultimate size of the tsunami.<\/p>\n

    TDM<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    We obviously won\u2019t know the final results of this election until after November 2.\u00a0 However, in evaluating this race and all the recent polls, it would be well to keep the following in mind. \u00a0Most voters have already made up … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-502","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-latest-headlines"],"yoast_head":"\nA RISING TIDE LIFTS ALL SHIPS - SCOTS HONOR<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/scotshonor.com\/?p=502\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A RISING TIDE LIFTS ALL SHIPS - 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