The Sacramento Bee published a field poll today that showed Boxer ahead of Fiorina by 47% to 41%.\u00a0 However, I looked into the internals and this poll is extremely misleading.\u00a0 Here is how they arrived at that number:<\/p>\n
They interviewed 599 likely voters.\u00a0 They\u00a0assumed that 44% of people who will vote in California will be Democrats, 35 percent will be Republicans and the rest will be independents.\u00a0\u00a0This means they probably surveyed 264 Democrats, 210 Republicans and 125 independents.\u00a0 With that kind of sampling, one would expect Boxer to end up with more than 50% of the vote because it is so heavily skewed toward Democrats.\u00a0 (Almost all field polls use this same technique, which is why they so often underestimate\u00a0actual Republican vote totals).\u00a0 This poll is actually very bad news for Boxer, because in spite of oversampling Democrats, she still only gets 47%.<\/p>\n
Republican voter enthusiasm is at least 50% higher than Democratic enthusiasm in any poll and Republican voter turnout is often double what it was in 2008.\u00a0 If that happens in California and this poll is accurate, Boxer is doomed.\u00a0 Even if Republicans are only\u00a030% more likely to vote than Democrats, Boxer loses in a close election.\u00a0 In addition, independents are moving away from the Democratic party in droves.<\/p>\n
Barbara Boxer cannot get over 47% in any poll.\u00a0 Her unfavorable rating is 48%, which is extremely high.\u00a0 She has outspent Fiorina about 12 to 1 so far.\u00a0\u00a0While she has driven Fiorina’s negatives higher, they still top out at 38%, 10 points lower than Boxer.<\/p>\n
When an incumbent polls below 50%, this close to an election, they almost always lose. \u00a0\u00a0Boxer has taken her best shot and missed.\u00a0 Now Fiorina is going to start spending money and she is going to take on Boxer.\u00a0 Her first ad shows Boxer dishing the General for daring to call her Ma\u2019am, rather than Senator.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Even if Boxer was really ahead 47% to 41% there would be a good chance that Fiorina wins, since most undecideds go toward the opponent.\u00a0 If people aren’t already convinced to vote for an incumbent, they are unlikely to change their mind between now and the election.\u00a0\u00a0I suspect Democrats know that, which is why Obama is out here doing all those fund raisers.\u00a0 They know that if Boxer loses in California, the Democrats have a very hard time holding the Senate.\u00a0\u00a0 When an incumbent like Boxer in a blue State like California feels the need to outspend her opponent by a 12 to 1 margin it is a sign of absolute desperation.<\/p>\n
The bottom line is never take a poll at face value, particularly if it is a\u00a0California Field Poll.\u00a0 My personal prediction is that Boxer goes all down hill from here and\u00a0people will be shocked by how badly Fiorina beats her in the General Election.\u00a0 \u00a0This is one Boxer Rebellion that could be a very good thing.<\/p>\n
TDM<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The Sacramento Bee published a field poll today that showed Boxer ahead of Fiorina by 47% to 41%.\u00a0 However, I looked into the internals and this poll is extremely misleading.\u00a0 Here is how they arrived at that number: They interviewed … Continue reading