{"id":366,"date":"2010-08-17T21:56:08","date_gmt":"2010-08-18T04:56:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/scotshonor.com\/?p=366"},"modified":"2010-08-17T21:56:08","modified_gmt":"2010-08-18T04:56:08","slug":"senate-to-gop-or-not-gop-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/scotshonor.com\/?p=366","title":{"rendered":"SENATE: TO GOP OR NOT GOP"},"content":{"rendered":"

I prepared the following analysis\u00a0to summarize the current projections for the November election.\u00a0 All these projections are based on the lastest Rasmussen polls.\u00a0 A couple of things are crystal clear:<\/p>\n

1.\u00a0 Republicans have improved their position in 14 states.\u00a0 While Democrats have improved their chances of keeping Senate seats in some states, they have made no progress toward taking any Republican seats.\u00a0 The only exception is in Florida, where Crist switched to run as an independent after losing big time in the Republican Primary.\u00a0 Right now Rubio is ahead of Crist.<\/p>\n

2.\u00a0 Control of the Senate is definitely in play.\u00a0 Even if the election was today the Republicans would have a good chance of winning 51 seats.\u00a0 If trends continue to deteriorate for Obama and Democrats, the Republican chances of taking back control of the Senate increase exponentially.<\/p>\n

If Harry Reid loses in Nevada and Barbara Boxer loses in California, it will be very difficult for Democrats to retain control of the Senate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u00a0<\/strong><\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Incumbents<\/strong><\/td>\nOriginal <\/strong><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/strong><\/td>\nCurrent<\/strong><\/td>\nGOP<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
State<\/strong><\/td>\nDemocrats<\/strong><\/td>\nRepublicans<\/strong><\/td>\nProjection<\/strong><\/td>\nRemarks<\/strong><\/td>\nProjection<\/strong><\/td>\nPickups<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AR<\/td>\nBlanche Lincoln<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nCompetitive<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\nX<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CO<\/td>\nMichael Bennet<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nCompetitive<\/td>\nObama Appt<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CT<\/td>\nChristopher Dodd<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nCompetitive<\/td>\nRetired<\/td>\nLean DEM<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
DE<\/td>\nJoe Biden<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nCompetitive<\/td>\nElected VP<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\nX<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FL<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nMel Martinez<\/td>\nCompetitive<\/td>\nRetired<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
IL<\/td>\nRoland Burris<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nCompetitive<\/td>\nDid Not Run<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
KY<\/td>\nJim Bunning<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nCompetitive<\/td>\nRetired<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
LA<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nDavid Vitter<\/td>\nCompetitive<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MO<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nKit Bond<\/td>\nCompetitive<\/td>\nRetired<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NV<\/td>\nHarry Reid<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nCompetitive<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nLean DEM<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NH<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nJudd Gregg<\/td>\nCompetitive<\/td>\nRetired<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NC<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nRichard Burr<\/td>\nCompetitive<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
OH<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nGeorge Voinovich<\/td>\nCompetitive<\/td>\nRetired<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA<\/td>\nBarbara Boxer<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nSafe DEM<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nLean DEM<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
HI<\/td>\nDaniel Inouye<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nSafe DEM<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nSafe DEM<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
IN<\/td>\nEvan Bayh<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nSafe DEM<\/td>\nRetired<\/td>\nGOP Pickup<\/td>\nX<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MD<\/td>\nBarbara Mikulski<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nSafe DEM<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nSafe DEM<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NY<\/td>\nChuck Schumer<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nSafe DEM<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nSafe DEM<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NY<\/td>\nKirsten Gillibrand<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nSafe DEM<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nSafe DEM<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ND<\/td>\nBryan Dorgan<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nSafe DEM<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\nX<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
OR<\/td>\nRon Wyden<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nSafe DEM<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nSafe DEM<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PA<\/td>\nArlen Specter<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nSafe DEM<\/td>\nLost Primary<\/td>\nLean GOP<\/td>\nX<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
VT<\/td>\nPat Leahy<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nSafe DEM<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nSafe DEM<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
WA<\/td>\nPatty Murray<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nSafe DEM<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nLean DEM<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
WV<\/td>\nRobert Byrd<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nSafe DEM<\/td>\nByrd died<\/td>\nSafe DEM<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
WI<\/td>\nRuss Feingold<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nSafe DEM<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nToss-up<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AL<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nRichard Shelby<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AK<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nLisa Murkowski<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AZ<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nJohn McCain<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
GA<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nJohnny Isakson<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ID<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nMike Crapo<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
IA<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nChuck Grassley<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
KS<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nSam Brownback<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SD<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nJohn Thune<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
UT<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\nRobert Bennet<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\nLost Primary<\/td>\nSafe GOP<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

CURRENT SENATE\u00a0\u00a0 57 DEMOCRATS\u00a0 41 REPUBLICANS 2 INDEPENDENTS<\/p>\n

PROJECTED GOP PICK-UP (NOT INCLUDING TOSS-UP STATES)\u00a0\u00a0 5<\/p>\n

PROJECTED SENATE\u00a0\u00a0 52\u00a0 DEMOCRATS\u00a0 46 REPUBLICANS\u00a0 2 INDEPENDENTS<\/p>\n

REPUBLICANS HAVE IMPROVED THEIR POSITION, SINCE JANUARY IN THE FOLLOWING STATES:<\/p>\n

Arkansas, Delaware, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, California, Indiana, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Washington and Wisconsin.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0If the Republicans win the toss up states, which are Colorado, Florida, Illinois and Wisconsin, they will be within 1 vote of taking control.\u00a0 There are four states consider leaning Democrat where the Republican could easily win.\u00a0 These are California, Connecticut, Nevada and Washington.<\/p>\n

\u00a0While it is too early to predict Republicans taking control of the Senate, it is certainly possible.\u00a0 If trends continue to deteriorate for Obama and for Democrats, Republicans could do even better.\u00a0 Right now only seven Democratic seats can really be considered safe:\u00a0 Hawaii, Maryland, New York, New York (S), Oregon, Vermont and West Virginia.\u00a0\u00a0 Even two of these seats, New York (S) and West Virginia could go Republican under the right circumstances.<\/p>\n

\u00a0While it is mathematically possible for Republicans to get a 60 vote majority, Republicans would have to beat either Inouye, Mikulski, Leahy or Schumer.\u00a0 Absent illness or death, that would seem highly improbable.\u00a0\u00a0 I think the very best, roll the table day for the GOP would result in a total flip with the end result 57 Republicans, 41 Democrats and 2 Independents.\u00a0 Not very likely, but also not impossible, particular if Obama continues his self destruction tour.<\/p>\n

\u00a0TDM<\/p>\n

TDM<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I prepared the following analysis\u00a0to summarize the current projections for the November election.\u00a0 All these projections are based on the lastest Rasmussen polls.\u00a0 A couple of things are crystal clear: 1.\u00a0 Republicans have improved their position in 14 states.\u00a0 While … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-366","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-latest-headlines"],"yoast_head":"\nSENATE: TO GOP OR NOT GOP - SCOTS HONOR<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/scotshonor.com\/?p=366\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"SENATE: TO GOP OR NOT GOP - 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