Donald Trump won in New Hampshire.\u00a0 That really matters, but it is important to remember that New Hampshire is an open primary state.\u00a0 Democrats and Independents can and do vote in the Republican primary.\u00a0 This reminds me of the 1972 Michigan primary.\u00a0 There was no race on the Republican side because Richard Nixon was running unopposed.\u00a0 So a lot of Republicans crossed over and voted for, wait for it, George Wallace.\u00a0 Wallace ended up winning the Democratic primary.\u00a0 This was not because Republicans in Michigan were all secret racists. A lot of them wanted to pick the worst possible candidate for the Democrats.\u00a0 Plus it was fun watching Democrats, who claim to be the party of civil rights, try to explain how a Southern racist won their primary.\u00a0 It was great sport but not necessarily that significant.<\/p>\n
We can be sure that some Democrats voted for Trump because they like him.\u00a0 But some voted for him because they think he is the worst possible choice for Republicans.\u00a0 This does not mean they would automatically vote for Trump in the general election.\u00a0 In addition, Trump was often profane and vulgar in New Hampshire.\u00a0\u00a0 Voters in New Hampshire just laughed and shrugged it off.\u00a0\u00a0 Don\u2019t assume he will get the same response in places like South Carolina.<\/p>\n
It was even more significant for John Kasich.\u00a0 I saw one interview where this woman was torn between Hillary Clinton and John Kasich.\u00a0 Nice!\u00a0 Kasich basically moved to New Hampshire and ran as a moderate Republican openly appealing to liberals.\u00a0 Good luck with that in South Carolina.<\/p>\n
The surprise was that Ted Cruz, who rarely visited New Hampshire, spent very little money there and was ignored by the main stream media still came in third.\u00a0 To put this in perspective, Ted Cruz spent $700,000 in New Hampshire but still finished ahead of Jeb Bush who spent $35 million.\u00a0 In addition, the media praised Jeb Bush for his great debate performance while rarely mentioning Cruz.\u00a0 Last week Ted Cruz ran a total of 29 ads, while Kasich, Bush, Rubio and Christie inflicted the New Hampshire voters with 1,435 ads.\u00a0 The bottom line is that if Bush, Rubio and Christie could not beat Cruz in New Hampshire they can\u2019t beat him anywhere.<\/p>\n
John Kasich is out of money and has no organization.\u00a0 He is not likely to do well in South Carolina.\u00a0 Chris Christie appears to be folding his tents.\u00a0 No surprise there.\u00a0 It doesn\u2019t matter what Fiorina, Carson or Gilmore do.\u00a0 Bush is going storm into South Carolina and he is even going to trot out \u201cW.\u201d<\/strong>\u00a0 Odds are high he will still finish behind Cruz and if that happens he is toast.\u00a0 Perhaps Rubio will stage a comback, but first he has to endure a week where Kasich and Bush are both out to destroy him. \u00a0Even if he survives that, he has yet to beat Cruz anywhere.\u00a0 Unless something changes, this will soon be a two man race between Trump and Cruz.\u00a0 Before anyone assumes Trump will win that battle, remember that Trump has a 60% unfavorability rating.\u00a0 That means there are 2 \u201cno Trumps\u201d<\/strong> for every \u201cTrump.\u201d<\/strong>\u00a0 At some point, that will really matter.<\/p>\n Ted Cruz has a nationwide organization and more cash than Bush, Rubio, Kasich, and Christie combined.\u00a0 While everyone else was launching stupid and ineffective personal attacks on Donald Trump, Cruz was keeping his power dry.\u00a0 When he did take on Trump, in Iowa, he hurt him big time.\u00a0 It is always a good idea to pay attention to the man who is keeping his power dry.\u00a0 At some point, he is going to use it.<\/p>\n TDM<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Donald Trump won in New Hampshire.\u00a0 That really matters, but it is important to remember that New Hampshire is an open primary state.\u00a0 Democrats and Independents can and do vote in the Republican primary.\u00a0 This reminds me of the 1972 … Continue reading