What many people do not realize is that when they went to vote on November 4, 2008, Barack Obama was already on his way to election.\u00a0 He was ahead by a massive 55% to 40% margin among the early voters.\u00a0 John McCain was pretty much toast before the first vote was even cast on Election Day.<\/p>\n
Republicans were caught by surprise in 2008, but they weren\u2019t caught by surprise this time.\u00a0 Every report, from both the left and the right, shows that Republicans have increased substantially in early voting and Democrats have slipped.\u00a0 Gallup even has Romney ahead in early voting:<\/p>\n
http:\/\/www.breitbart.com\/Big-Government\/2012\/10\/29\/Gallup-Shock-Romney-Up-7-with-early-voters<\/a><\/p>\n Ben Franklin once said that two things were certain:\u00a0 death and taxes.\u00a0 It is also certain thing that supporters of both sides prior to an election will always say they think their candidate is going to win.\u00a0 No matter how bad the internal polls look, all campaigns put on the happy face at this stage of the election.<\/p>\n Ultimately, it is down to this:<\/strong>\u00a0 If Republicans turnout like they did in 2004 and 2010, then Romney wins and by a big margin.\u00a0 If Democrats turn out like they did in 2008, then Obama may win, but it will be a razor thin margin.<\/p>\n Is it possible that Democratic turnout will be that dramatic<\/strong>?\u00a0 Yes, it is possible, but unlikely.\u00a0\u00a02008 was a perfect storm for Republicans and this was the highest Democratic turnout EVER!<\/p>\n Is there any evidence to support that kind of turnout this time?<\/strong>\u00a0 No.\u00a0 If anything Romney is the one drawing massive crowds and Obama is the one playing to half empty rooms.\u00a0 Democrats are obviously hoping for this kind of turnout.<\/p>\n Is either campaign showing signs of panic:?<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0 Yes, Bill Clinton is making four campaign stops in Pennsylvania.\u00a0 Pennsylvania is a state that wasn\u2019t even on the radar a couple of weeks ago. \u00a0\u00a0If Obama loses in Pennsylvania, a state he considered safe, he is in deep trouble.\u00a0 Sending Bill Clinton into Pennsylvania the day before an election is evidence of pure panic.<\/p>\n Candidates who think they are losing tend to become angry.\u00a0 Obama is becoming sullen and angry.\u00a0 That is the real story with the \u201crevenge\u201d remark.\u00a0 Mitt Romney, on the other hand, looks very calm and extremely confident.<\/p>\n But what about all those polls showing a toss-up?\u00a0 As far as I can tell, every poll shows Romney winning among independents.\u00a0 Every poll also shows about 95% of Democrats voting for Obama and 95% of Republicans voting for Romney.\u00a0 This means that all of the polls are being adjusted to reflect an anticipated high turnout by Democrats.\u00a0 If Democrats do turn out by a 6 to 8 point margin, then Obama may win a close election.\u00a0 If the turnout is roughly equal, than Romney wins by a comfortable margin.\u00a0 If Republican turnout is higher than Democratic turnout this will be a landslide.<\/p>\n I have been watching elections for many years and I have learned to always pay attention to Michael Barone.\u00a0 He not only studies polls and turnout, he knows this down to the county level.\u00a0 I can\u2019t begin to recall the number of times when an election appeared to be trending in one direction or another and Michael Barone predicted the final outcome based on his analysis of a particular county.\u00a0 I have never known him to get it wrong.\u00a0\u00a0 Barone is flat out predicting a Romney landslide because he says the fundamentals are all tilting toward Romney.<\/p>\n How could Barone be wrong?\u00a0\u00a0 I think the only way he is wrong is if there was a major swing in the election because of Obama\u2019s sterling performance with regard to Hurricane Sandy.\u00a0 Obama did get the chance for some nice photo shots, wearing his Commander in Chief gear and he benefited greatly from the \u201cbromance\u201d <\/strong>with Chris Christie.\u00a0 Obama would hardly be the first political leader who benefited significantly from showing leadership during a crisis.\u00a0 In other countries, losing campaigns have turned into landslide victories.\u00a0 But in this case Obama left town and went back campaigning.\u00a0 In the meantime Hurricane Sandy is turning into a real mess, with millions of people without food, without water, without gas and without any sign of FEMA.\u00a0 The warmth from Obama\u2019s Presidential moment has begun to fade.\u00a0 This may even turn into a backlash, if people blame him for the FEMA disappearing act.\u00a0 For example, take a look at the following video:<\/p>\n http:\/\/weeklystandard.com\/blogs\/video-sandy-victims-beg-help_660345.html<\/a><\/p>\n Finally: the wild card.\u00a0 The Libya narrative has literally collapsed.\u00a0 While the television networks and the cable news networks are focusing on Hurricane Sandy, the newspapers are reporting on Libya.\u00a0 In addition, the internet is literally on fire.\u00a0 Today an ad is being released by 500 former Admirals and Generals endorsing Romney and slamming Obama.\u00a0 They paid for it themselves.<\/p>\n Summary:\u00a0\u00a0 I believe the Gallup running average of Romney 52% to Obama 46% remains accurate.\u00a0 The most recent Gallup polls almost certainly overstate Obama, because they represent a running 7 day average.\u00a0 That means a lot of this data is from the glow days following the Hurricane.\u00a0 But even if Gallup is right and it is 48% to 48% then Romney probably wins 51% to 48%.\u00a0\u00a0 Today Pew has it Obama 48% and Romney 46%, but it also has Democrats plus six.\u00a0 That means the real number is probably Romney 49% and Obama 45%.\u00a0\u00a0 Pretty consistent with where Gallup has been for quite a white.<\/p>\n I think they are all wrong.\u00a0 I don\u2019t think Democratic turnout will be even close to what it was in 2008.\u00a0 I think that Republican turnout will be at a record level.\u00a0 I have several reasons for believing this:<\/p>\n <\/p>\n I believe that tomorrow night we will be introduced to President elect Mitt Romney.\u00a0 I also think he is going to win by a margin that is beyond shocking.\u00a0 He is very likely to bring the U.S. Senate with him.\u00a0 But this will not be a landslide victory for Mitt Romney; this will be a landslide repudiation of Barack Obama.\u00a0 It will also be a repudiation of the liberal left and the biased main stream media.\u00a0 It won\u2019t be perfect, but this will be the final curtain for the liberal left, at least for the current generation of the liberal left.<\/p>\n TDM<\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" What many people do not realize is that when they went to vote on November 4, 2008, Barack Obama was already on his way to election.\u00a0 He was ahead by a massive 55% to 40% margin among the early voters.\u00a0 … Continue reading \n