{"id":171,"date":"2010-04-26T10:52:39","date_gmt":"2010-04-26T17:52:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/scotshonor.com\/?p=171"},"modified":"2010-04-26T10:52:39","modified_gmt":"2010-04-26T17:52:39","slug":"truth-or-consequences-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/scotshonor.com\/?p=171","title":{"rendered":"Truth or Consequences"},"content":{"rendered":"

In one of my favorite TV shows, Gomer Pyle and Sergeant Carter had to defuse a ticking time bomb.\u00a0 Time was running out.\u00a0 They had to cut either the red wire or the green wire.\u00a0 If they cut the right wire, the bomb would be defused.\u00a0 If they cut the wrong wire, the bomb would explode.\u00a0 Sergeant Carter, in a moment of desperation, asked Gomer which wire he would cut.\u00a0 Gomer said he would cut the green wire.\u00a0 Sergeant Carter immediately reached over and cut the red wire.\u00a0 The bomb was defused.\u00a0 Gomer asked him why he did that?\u00a0 Sergeant Carter responded:\u00a0 \u201cthe only thing I was sure about is that you would be wrong.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u00a0I used to disregard the New York Times as irrelevant propaganda.\u00a0 This was primarily because the NYT consistently publishes irrelevant propaganda.\u00a0 But recently I realized that the NYT performs a vital role.\u00a0 They have replaced Gomer Pyle as the information source almost certain to be wrong about any subject.\u00a0 All one really needs to do is read the NYT, then assume that the opposite is true.<\/p>\n

\u00a0For example, yesterday the NYT announced that:<\/p>\n

\u00a0From the Mall to the Docks, Signs of Rebound<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2010\/04\/26\/business\/economy\/26econ.html<\/a><\/p>\n

\u00a0But if you read the article, it is clear that the opposite is true.\u00a0<\/p>\n

“much of the improvement appears the result of the nearly $800 billion government stimulus program. As that package is largely exhausted late this year, further expansion may hinge on whether consumers keep spending. That probably depends on the job market, which remains weak.”<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>There is only one other source equally valuable in predicting future results, Vice President Joe Biden.\u00a0 He predicts the following:<\/p>\n

US<\/strong> Biden Predicts Job Growth Will Grow 250,000-500,000 Monthly<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong>http:\/\/online.wsj.com\/article\/BT-CO-20100423-715223.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines<\/a><\/p>\n

\u00a0Even the Obama administration insiders are smart enough to realize this is dumb.<\/p>\n

This reminded me of the time I was on the National Risk Management Panel for Willis.\u00a0 Top risk managers from all over the country met for a four day session.\u00a0 The first day the risk manager from well-known Fortune 500 company gave a presentation.\u00a0 It was a glorious multi-media presentation on how they were leveraging grain prices in Iowa against workers\u2019 compensation claims in California.\u00a0 It made no mention of any traditional risk management approaches.\u00a0 In effect, it was the perpetual motion machine for risk management.\u00a0 After the meeting I met for drinks with a close friend and fellow risk manager.\u00a0 I said:\u00a0 \u201ceither I know absolutely nothing about risk management, or this guy is an idiot.\u201d\u00a0 He laughed and said that he had the same reaction.\u00a0 He then smiled and said:\u00a0 \u201cTerry, you have been doing this a long time, and you know what is true and more importantly, what is not true.\u201d The risk manager who gave that multi-media presentation was from – ENRON.\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0About six months later, it was really obvious who was right and who was wrong.<\/p>\n

So, here\u2019s the deal.\u00a0 These guys just aren\u2019t that sharp.\u00a0 They have made mistake after mistake.\u00a0 Nothing they say or do makes any sense.\u00a0 It is not a matter of will they fail, but rather how fast and how badly they will fail.\u00a0 There are only two possibilities here.\u00a0 Either they are right, and all the people who have been actually creating jobs for decades are wrong, or they are doomed to fail.\u00a0 Just like Sergeant Carter.\u00a0 You can bet on them getting it wrong.<\/p>\n

\u00a0TDM<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In one of my favorite TV shows, Gomer Pyle and Sergeant Carter had to defuse a ticking time bomb.\u00a0 Time was running out.\u00a0 They had to cut either the red wire or the green wire.\u00a0 If they cut the right … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-171","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-latest-headlines"],"yoast_head":"\nTruth or Consequences - SCOTS HONOR<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/scotshonor.com\/?p=171\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Truth or Consequences - 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