http:\/\/politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com\/2012\/10\/01\/battle-for-presidency-remains-close-in-new-cnn-poll\/<\/a><\/p>\nThese results are consistent with other polls.\u00a0 This is very bad for President Obama.\u00a0 His margin has decreased and it still over-samples Democrats.\u00a0 It is significant to note that this poll has Independent voters going for Romney by a 49% to 41% margin.<\/p>\n
When you combine this with the dramatic drop in Democratic registration, particularly in swing states like Ohio, I really don\u2019t know how any honest analyst can even pretend this is favorable for Obama.<\/p>\n
So what happened?\u00a0 The answer is \u201cFilial Regression.\u201d<\/strong>\u00a0 This is a mathematical law that applies when there are unexpected results.\u00a0 Let me give an example.\u00a0 Suppose you toss a coin 100 times and you get 65 heads and 35 tails.\u00a0 Any mathematician will tell you that the odds of getting a \u201cheads\u201d on the next toss remain at exactly 50\/50.\u00a0 Just because there was a lucky string of heads does not mean that the odds have changed.\u00a0 But filial regression also comes into play.\u00a0 This is a mathematical law that applies when there are abnormal results.\u00a0 According to filial regression, when there are abnormal results, the most likely thing to happen in the future is a return to normal.\u00a0 That means that if you toss the coin another 100 times, odds are the results will return to near normal or 50 heads and 50 tails.<\/p>\nThere were a string of polls that did not make any sense compared to well-known data.\u00a0 This is the age of computers, so we really know how many Democrats there are, how many Republicans and how many Independents.\u00a0 It is pretty rare for people to change party registration over-night.\u00a0 Yet that is exactly what some political pundits believed was happening.\u00a0 They believed that a lot of Republicans suddenly decided they were Democrats again. Wiser people were unconvinced.\u00a0 In other words, the results were obviously abnormal.\u00a0 The law of filial regression is what caused me to expect the results to return to normal over the next series of polls.\u00a0 That is exactly what has happened.<\/p>\n
Don\u2019t start celebrating a Romney victory just yet, but be comforted in knowing that the predictions of his death were more than a little premature.\u00a0 Also keep this in mind.\u00a0 If this poll is right about Romney winning among Independents 49% to 41%, then it is the Obama campaign that should be experiencing night sweats.<\/p>\n
TDM<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The recent polls, showing Barack Obama running away to a sweet victory have come crashing down to earth.\u00a0 The latest CNN poll results follow: http:\/\/politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com\/2012\/10\/01\/battle-for-presidency-remains-close-in-new-cnn-poll\/ These results are consistent with other polls.\u00a0 This is very bad for President Obama.\u00a0 His … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1647","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-latest-headlines"],"yoast_head":"\nOH FILIAL - SCOTS HONOR<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/scotshonor.com\/?p=1647\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"OH FILIAL - 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