{"id":1628,"date":"2012-09-23T02:47:26","date_gmt":"2012-09-23T09:47:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/scotshonor.com\/?p=1628"},"modified":"2012-09-23T20:26:36","modified_gmt":"2012-09-24T03:26:36","slug":"two-plus-two-equals-three","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/scotshonor.com\/?p=1628","title":{"rendered":"TWO PLUS TWO EQUALS THREE"},"content":{"rendered":"

In order to understand this election, we have to look back at 2008.\u00a0 Obama won several states that had voted for Bush in 2004.\u00a0 Those states were:<\/p>\n

Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida.\u00a0 <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

All of the above states are considered toss-ups in this election cycle, with the possible exception of New Mexico.\u00a0 In addition, two more states have been added to the toss up category:<\/p>\n

Wisconsin, New Hampshire<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Romney has three states that are only \u201cleaning\u201d Romney instead of \u201csafe\u201d Romney.\u00a0 Those states are Arizona, Missouri and Indiana.<\/p>\n

Obama has three states that are only \u201cleaning\u201d Obama instead of \u201csafe\u201d Obama.\u00a0 Those states are Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Mexico.<\/p>\n

Wisconsin, significantly, has moved from \u201csafe\u201d Obama to \u201ctossup.\u201d<\/p>\n

So, let me summarize.\u00a0 The election in 2008 showed a large number of states switching from Republican (Bush) to Democrat (Obama).\u00a0 Since Obama is not assured of winning any of those states, they are considered tossups.\u00a0 (The only exception is New Mexico, which may be leaning Obama).\u00a0 Two more states have been added to the tossup list, Wisconsin and New Hampshire.\u00a0 No state, won by McCain in 2008 is considered a tossup state in this election cycle.\u00a0 This means all the movement is away from the 2008 results.\u00a0 Yet almost all of the polls are based on 2008 results, although Rasmussen uses a blend between 2004 and 2008.\u00a0 No one is using 2010 turnout.<\/p>\n

That just may be a major mistake, because there is strong evidence of a\u00a0major change in demographics since 2008.\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0Gallup measures Party affiliation and this has been showing a strong move toward Republicans over the past four years:<\/p>\n

http:\/\/www.theatlanticcities.com\/politics\/2011\/11\/increasingly-republican-states-america\/356\/<\/a><\/p>\n

The percent of people who now consider themself as leaning Republican has increased in 47 out of 50 states.\u00a0 In 20 of these states the increase is by 5 points or more.\u00a0 Gallup only found three states where the percent of people leaning Republican decreased.\u00a0 Those states were Georgia, Arizona and Mississippi and this was by less than 1%.\u00a0 By the way, these are all \u201csafe\u201d Romney states.<\/p>\n

Yet all the turnout models used in the recent polls are predicting a higher Democratic turnout than a Republican turnout, because that is what happened in 2008.\u00a0 Incredibly some polls are showing Obama leading with Romney winning the independent vote.\u00a0\u00a0It is hard to imagine Obama winning this election if he does not win the independent vote.<\/p>\n

The bottom line is that the numbers don\u2019t add up.\u00a0 Either Gallup was full of crap in November of 2011, or a lot of people have switched back from Republican to Democrat in the last 12 months, or the recent polls totally lack credibility.<\/p>\n

There are no guarantees in life or elections, but one thing is\u00a0clear.\u00a0 Somebody is really wrong.\u00a0 Either Gallup was really wrong in November of 2011, or the polls are wrong now.\u00a0\u00a0We will know shortly.<\/p>\n

TDM<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In order to understand this election, we have to look back at 2008.\u00a0 Obama won several states that had voted for Bush in 2004.\u00a0 Those states were: Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida.\u00a0 … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1628","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-latest-headlines"],"yoast_head":"\nTWO PLUS TWO EQUALS THREE - SCOTS HONOR<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/scotshonor.com\/?p=1628\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"TWO PLUS TWO EQUALS THREE - 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