I know some of you are worried about the polls purportedly showing Obama leading Romney.\u00a0 None of the polls, including the Fox News polls have a shred of credibility.\u00a0 Here is the data you actually need to evaluate this election.<\/p>\n
How many Democrats vs. Republicans are there in the United States today and how should we expect them to vote?<\/strong><\/p>\n Answer:<\/p>\n http:\/\/www.gallup.com\/poll\/15370\/party-affiliation.aspx<\/a><\/p>\n Gallup 27% Republican 35% Democrat and 36% Independents in 2012<\/p>\n Gallup interviews about 1,000 people each day.\u00a0 These are done by telephone. The following link shows the Gallup methodology:<\/p>\n http:\/\/www.gallup.com\/poll\/110380\/how-does-gallup-daily-tracking-work.aspx<\/a><\/p>\n Gallup asks a lot of questions.\u00a0 If you want to see the questions they ask, there is a link to that on the above link to gallup.com.\u00a0 I personally believe that the type of questions asked by Gallup will almost always result in over-sampling of Democrats.\u00a0 Historical trends support that conclusion.<\/p>\n http:\/\/www.rasmussenreports.com\/public_content\/archive\/mood_of_america_archive\/partisan_trends\/summary_of_party_affiliation<\/a><\/p>\n Rassmussen 37.6% Republican\u00a0 33.3% Democrat\u00a0 29.2% Independent<\/p>\n http:\/\/www.rasmussenreports.com\/public_content\/about_us\/methodology<\/a><\/p>\n Gallup uses phone banks, boiler rooms and operator assisted technology. Rasmussen has an automated survey process that makes sure that every respondent hears the same question, from the same voice with the same inflections.\u00a0 It also runs back up surveys to make sure that the results are consistent with the results of their automated survey.<\/p>\n Rasmussen has proved to be extremely accurate at predicting actual turnout, while Gallup tends to estimate Democrats.\u00a0 For example:\u00a0 in 2010 Rasmussen predicted 36% Republican, 35% Democrat and 29% Independent.\u00a0\u00a0 Gallup had 29% Republican, 40% Democrat and 29% Independent.\u00a0 This was the election when Democrats were swept out of power in the House and lost several seats in the Senate during in a nationwide Democratic election disaster.\u00a0 The actual results were 35% Republican, 35% Democrat and 30% Independent, almost identical to what Rasmussen predicted.<\/p>\n Smart people who actually study elections realize the significance of this data:<\/p>\n http:\/\/www.examiner.com\/article\/voter-affiliation-not-polling-points-to-a-romney-win-november?CID=obinsite<\/a><\/p>\n Even if Gallup is right, Obama is behind.\u00a0 Almost every poll has Romney ahead with Independents by a margin ranging between 10 and 14 points.\u00a0 On the other hand, those recent polls show Obama winning the election without winning among independents.\u00a0 That is ludicrous.\u00a0 So, unless Democrats show up in droves and Republican sit this one out, Obama loses.<\/p>\n Unless you believe that a high percentage of Republicans have recently decided to switch parties, these polls cannot possibly be accurate.\u00a0 Unless you believe Obama, contrary to almost every other poll, is way ahead with Independents, these cannot possibly be accurate.\u00a0\u00a0 Unless you believe Democrats are so excited at the chance to re-elect Obama that they will surge to the polls in unprecedented numbers, these polls cannot possibly be accurate.<\/p>\n I expected a rapid change in polls for several reasons.\u00a0 One is that, contrary to coverage in the main stream media, this was a very bad week for Obama.\u00a0 The media was totally focused on the alleged blunder by Mitt Romney.\u00a0 Romney said he was outraged at the attack on our Embassy and Consulate and he was shocked that the first response by Obama administration was to apologize to the people who attacked us.\u00a0 \u00a0The main stream media immediate pounced as if this was the worst mistake in human history.\u00a0 In the meantime if they had just looked over their shoulder they would have seen maps showing the entire Mideast on fire because of Obama\u2019s inept handling of foreign affairs.\u00a0 My hunch is that the American people paid a lot more attention to those horrible pictures than to the pompous spin from the liberal elite.<\/p>\n Today Gallup released a new poll and it is devastating news for Obama.\u00a0 The so-called lead has disappeared.\u00a0 What matters most in any poll is the trend and the trend is away from Obama and toward Romney.\u00a0 This is the classic pattern that happens in nearly every election with incumbents.\u00a0 If people haven\u2019t decided to support the incumbent by now, they are never going to support him or her.\u00a0 Obama isn\u2019t getting close to 50% he needs and that alone spells big trouble for him.<\/p>\n http:\/\/www.gallup.com\/poll\/150743\/Obama-Romney.aspx<\/a><\/p>\n But I also suspect that this poll, like almost every other recent poll, has over-sampled Democrats.\u00a0 If Gallup really believes that 27% of voters are Republican and 40% are Democrat, than it believes that only about 27% of Independents are for Obama and 80% are for Romney.\u00a0 You know this because Gallup would expect Obama to be getting 40% just from Democrats.\u00a0 So the remaining 7% has to come from Independents.\u00a0 That would mean Obama is getting about 7 points of the 26 total points available from Independents who have made up their minds.\u00a0 On the other hand Gallup would expect Romney to get about 27% from Republicans and the remainder or 19% from Independents.\u00a0 That would show Romney getting 73% of the Independent vote, with about 27% of independents undecided.<\/p>\n The Gallup data is highly suspect, and it is clearly exaggerating the support for President Obama.\u00a0 The point is that you should not pay much attention to meaningless polls and keep focused on the underlying demographic data.\u00a0 If Rasmussen is right, and history shows that he is, than Obama has to win a majority of Independent votes or he loses.\u00a0 So far, there is little evidence that he is doing that.\u00a0 Keep in mind that Democrats are bitching and moaning about all those new voter ID laws suppressing Democratic vote.\u00a0 If they are right, this makes the demographics even worse for Obama.<\/p>\n The main stream media is dominated by liberals who are desperate to see Obama win.\u00a0 They have been lying to you about nearly everything for years.\u00a0 They have failed to cover the glaring problems with Obama\u2019s personal history while showcasing every Romney flaw in high definition.\u00a0 Why on earth would you believe them now when they try to convince you that Romney is losing?\u00a0 That is what they want you to believe.\u00a0 Wise people don\u2019t rely on the main stream media for accurate information about anything, particularly this election.<\/p>\n TDM<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" I know some of you are worried about the polls purportedly showing Obama leading Romney.\u00a0 None of the polls, including the Fox News polls have a shred of credibility.\u00a0 Here is the data you actually need to evaluate this election. … Continue reading