A lot of people were shocked to discover that the Wisconsin polls were so wrong.\u00a0 While some polls correctly had Walker winning by 7 points, others had the race a dead heat.\u00a0 The challenge was with the assumptions used by the people taking the poll.\u00a0 For one thing, there is a difference between surveying likely voters and surveying registered voters.\u00a0 Republicans are more likely to vote than Democrats.\u00a0 But the problem is more than just this one issue.\u00a0 Pollsters cannot interview everyone, only a random sample of people.\u00a0 Let\u2019s assume that a poll surveys 600 registered voters.\u00a0 This is not necessarily a truly random sample, so they adjust the results based on the demographics they expect.\u00a0 Let me explain that.\u00a0 Let\u2019s assume that a pollster believes that 40% of people are Democrats, 40% are Republicans and 20% are independents.\u00a0 They would expect the survey to draw 240 Democrats and 240 Republicans.\u00a0 If they have too many Democrats or too many Republicans they will adjust the results.\u00a0 To keep this short, I will assume they do not adjust because of the percentage of independents.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Most of the assumptions with regard to political party are based on the 2008 Presidential election.\u00a0 But analysts know that things have changed dramatically since 2008.\u00a0 Remember the 2010 election?\u00a0 There was a significant movement from Democrat to Republican or Independent.\u00a0\u00a0 No one really knows the correct percentage of people registered in either party.\u00a0<\/p>\n
In many cases the pollsters were anticipating a huge discrepancy between Democrats and Republicans.\u00a0 I have seen reports that this could be 9 or even 10 points.\u00a0 That really impacts the results.\u00a0 Let\u2019s go back to that 600 voter sample.\u00a0 Let assume the pollster expected 45% Democrat and 35% Republican, because of the 2008 election results.\u00a0 That means they expected 270 Democrats and 210 Republicans. \u00a0If they interviewed 600 voters and they got 240 Democrats and 240 Republicans, they would make an adjustment.\u00a0 Assume that the survey showed a tie between Mitt Romney and Barrack Obama.\u00a0 The pollster would assume that Democrats were under represented by 30 voters and Republicans were over represented by 30 voters.\u00a0 So the results of the poll would be changed from 50% \u2013 50% to 55% \u2013 45% in favor of Obama.\u00a0 The actual way results are adjusted varies between pollsters, but I think this demonstrates my point.<\/p>\n
This is not necessarily a devious plot to make Obama look better.\u00a0 Pollsters may strongly believe the results they are reporting.\u00a0 This is just the predictable result of using flawed assumptions.\u00a0 It is exactly this type of reasoning that resulted in the prediction of a 50 50 tie in Wisconsin.\u00a0 When the votes were counted, Walker won 53 to 47, a bigger margin than he won by in 2010.<\/p>\n
This is one reason the Wisconsin election really matters.\u00a0 In addition to the obvious momentum for Republicans and the public rebuke of unions, it is going to force pollsters to re-think their basic assumptions.\u00a0 Regardless of which party they favor, no pollster wants to be that wrong.\u00a0 They get paid for getting it right.\u00a0 Watch for polls in the new few days and weeks to start showing a significant difference in the surveys.\u00a0 They are likely to show major improvement for Mitt Romney.\u00a0 Of course Democrats will respond by saying the polls are flawed, but they will be paying close attention.<\/p>\n
The reality is that while Obama has had a couple of really rotten weeks and his polls numbers will probably suffer as a result, the real change will be the result of more accuracy in the polls themselves.\u00a0 I consider this chump change.\u00a0 A lot of people realized they were taken for chumps, so they\u2019ve changed parties.<\/p>\n
TDM<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
A lot of people were shocked to discover that the Wisconsin polls were so wrong.\u00a0 While some polls correctly had Walker winning by 7 points, others had the race a dead heat.\u00a0 The challenge was with the assumptions used by … Continue reading