{"id":1140,"date":"2011-12-21T16:38:32","date_gmt":"2011-12-21T23:38:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/scotshonor.com\/?p=1140"},"modified":"2011-12-21T16:38:32","modified_gmt":"2011-12-21T23:38:32","slug":"i-o-wow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/scotshonor.com\/?p=1140","title":{"rendered":"I O WOW!"},"content":{"rendered":"

Most of the polls from Iowa are worthless.\u00a0 There is one exception, the Insider Advantage Poll.\u00a0 Most polls just call people and then extrapolate results.\u00a0 But the Insider Advantage surveys 391 people considered likely to actually participate in the Iowa GOP Caucus.\u00a0 Since the Caucus is not like a primary, there is often a huge difference between who is willing to show up for three hours on a cold night in January and those willing to spend five minutes at a polling booth.\u00a0 It is something that makes Iowa very special.<\/p>\n

\u00a0Latest results for the Insider Advantage Poll are in the following link:<\/p>\n

\u00a0http:\/\/www.realclearpolitics.com\/docs\/2011\/InsiderAdvantage_IA_1218.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n

Here is how it looks to me:\u00a0<\/p>\n

Ron Paul is in first with 23.9%.\u00a0\u00a0 He may win, but it won\u2019t matter<\/p>\n

Romney is in second at 18.2%.\u00a0 He is likely to end up with the same percentage, but he could slip back to third or lower.<\/p>\n

Rich Perry is third with 15.5%.\u00a0 If this is accurate, that is a major surge.\u00a0 If this trend continues he could come in second or even win in Iowa.\u00a0 Coming in second to Ron Paul would be the same as a win.<\/p>\n

Newt Gingrich is 12.9% and sinking like a stone.\u00a0 He could even fall further.\u00a0 If he finishes fourth or worse he is probably toast.<\/p>\n

Michelle Bachmann is at 10.1%.\u00a0 She has devoted maximum effort in Iowa.\u00a0 She needs to come in first, second or a very strong third to continue.\u00a0\u00a0 I don\u2019t see that happening.<\/p>\n

Rick Santorum is at 2.9%.\u00a0 Unless he improves significantly, this is the end.\u00a0 He has practically moved to Iowa.\u00a0 If he can\u2019t make it there, he can\u2019t make it anywhere.<\/p>\n

Jon Huntsman is at 3.8%.\u00a0 Huntsman is filthy rich so he doesn\u2019t need Iowa, but at some point he has to show some signs of a pulse.<\/p>\n

\u00a0Obviously, things may change and the only poll that matters is the one taken in person at the Caucus on January 3.\u00a0 One thing is sure; the Iowa Caucus will have a major impact on this race.\u00a0 If Perry pulls this off, he will have been accurate when he referred to himself as the Tim Tebow of the 2012 Republican Presidential race.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0TDM<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Most of the polls from Iowa are worthless.\u00a0 There is one exception, the Insider Advantage Poll.\u00a0 Most polls just call people and then extrapolate results.\u00a0 But the Insider Advantage surveys 391 people considered likely to actually participate in the Iowa … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1140","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-latest-headlines"],"yoast_head":"\nI O WOW! - SCOTS HONOR<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/scotshonor.com\/?p=1140\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"I O WOW! 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