I worked for a company where Bill Walsh was on the Board of Directors.\u00a0 As a result, I got to meet him on several occasions.\u00a0 I love to talk about sports, but I was always more than a little intimidated talking about football with Bill Walsh.\u00a0 I figured the only possible outcome was for me to say something incredibly stupid.\u00a0 But in 2000 I was talking with Mr. Walsh just before the 2000 draft.\u00a0 I am a fan of The University of Michigan, so I asked him what he thought of Tom Brady.\u00a0 I had been very impressed by Tom Brady\u2019s performance in the 1999 Citrus Bowl.\u00a0 Walsh told me that he thought Brady had potential, but he was really excited about Giovanni Carmazzi.\u00a0 Bill Walsh was one of the smartest football coaches in history, but he was wrong about Tom Brady.\u00a0 Remember Giovanni Carmazzi?\u00a0 Exactly!<\/p>\n
During the 2000 draft every<\/strong> NFL teams passed on the chance to get Tom Brady.\u00a0 He was finally chosen by the New England Patriots as the 199th<\/sup> pick in the sixth round.\u00a0 Chad Pennington, Giovanni Carmazzi, Chris Redman, Tee Martin, Marc Bulger, and Spergon Wynn were all chosen before Brady.\u00a0 The Patriots weren\u2019t exactly thrilled even then.\u00a0 They had a hard time choosing between Tom Brady and Tim Rattay.\u00a0 Brady started his NFL career as the 4th<\/sup> string quarterback.\u00a0 The Patriots weren\u2019t the only ones to underestimate Brady.\u00a0 When he enrolled at Michigan he was seventh on the depth chart.\u00a0 He was so discouraged he hired a sports psychologist to help him cope and even considered transferring to Cal.<\/p>\n Brady eventually got to play when Drew Bledsoe was hurt.\u00a0 The rest is history.\u00a0 Tom Brady led the New England Patriots to four Super Bowls and won three of them.\u00a0 Most people would rank him as one of the best Quarterbacks in the history of the NFL.<\/p>\n The point is that sometimes experts make huge mistakes in trying to predict winners.\u00a0 In the case of Tom Brady the experts were obviously wrong.\u00a0 But they should have known better.\u00a0 Brady didn\u2019t necessarily have the strongest arm or the fastest feet, but he was a winning quarterback for a big time football program.\u00a0 Performance on the job should always be a major factor in choosing future winners.\u00a0 I suspect Tim Tebow is going to be another important reminder of this principle.<\/p>\n We need to avoid making the same mistake in choosing the Republican nominee for President.\u00a0 The dumbest possible way to judge a candidate for President is by his or her performance in those silly \u201cPresidential\u201d debates.\u00a0 They only measure the ability of a candidate to shine in a bizarre, irrelevant beauty contest.\u00a0 What relevance does that have to being President of the United States?\u00a0 When is the last time a President of the United States had to participant in this type of debate?\u00a0 We should not confuse reality TV with reality.<\/p>\n Republicans seem to fear a brilliant Obama dominating during a Presidential debate.\u00a0 That is utter nonsense.\u00a0 First, Obama is not brilliant.\u00a0 If there was any evidence of brilliance we would have all his college transcripts.\u00a0 Second, he is not a great debater.\u00a0 He barely beat John McCain, who was pathetic.\u00a0 Third, Presidential debates don\u2019t really matter.\u00a0 They are high theater, but that is all.\u00a0 Obama didn\u2019t beat McCain because of the debates; he won because of the financial meltdown.\u00a0 Prior to collapse of the financial markets McCain was leading in the polls and may have won.<\/p>\n I greatly fear that we are overlooking our potential Super Stars while salivating over the next Giovanni Carmazzi or Tee Martin.\u00a0 What should matter is performance in a position that demonstrates executive ability.\u00a0 There is a reason why so many former Governors have become President.\u00a0 Proven success as Governor is the best training ground for a President of the United States. \u00a0Knowledge of foreign affairs or economic policy doesn\u2019t matter if you don\u2019t know how to govern.<\/p>\n When choosing a winner it is also a good idea to start with people who have actually won.\u00a0 Mitt Romney already tried to win the nomination and lost to \u201cJohn McCain.\u201d\u00a0 Ouch!\u00a0 Newt Gingrich has been running for President, and losing, since the mid 90s.\u00a0 Rick Santorum lost his bid for re-election to the Senate by 18 points.\u00a0 Michelle Bachmann won two elections for one congressional district.\u00a0 Ron Paul has been running for President, and coming up short, since 1988.\u00a0<\/p>\n We should also consider which candidate has a consistent record of actually governing as a conservative.\u00a0 \u00a0The best measure of how someone will govern as President is how they performed as Governor.<\/p>\n Only two remaining candidates actually have a history of winning elections; Jon Huntsman and Rick Perry.\u00a0 Only two candidates have been re-elected Governor by large margins.\u00a0 Only two candidates have actually governed as a conservative.\u00a0 Yet they currently rank at the bottom of the public opinion polls.<\/p>\n Are we really this stupid?\u00a0 Mitt Romney might win if he gets the nomination, but Newt Gingrich is capable of going down in flames.\u00a0 He has self-destructed at every prior opportunity.\u00a0 He has never won a national or statewide election.\u00a0 Neither Michelle Bachmann or Rick Santorum have the experience or the track record to suggest they can win a Presidential campaign.\u00a0 Ron Paul will continue to play the role of Harold Stassen:\u00a0 \u201calways running, never winning.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n Obama can be defeated.\u00a0 Obama will be defeated. \u00a0His only chance at re-election is if the Republicans play a prevent defense and make an incredibly stupid choice for their nominee.\u00a0 Sadly a lot of experts are trying to convince us to bet everything on the next Chris Redman or Spergon Wynn.\u00a0 If we take their advice, we are likely to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory.<\/p>\n \u00a0TDM<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" I worked for a company where Bill Walsh was on the Board of Directors.\u00a0 As a result, I got to meet him on several occasions.\u00a0 I love to talk about sports, but I was always more than a little intimidated … Continue reading