HOUSTON

The Houston Astros developed a complicated system of stealing signs from opposing teams and using them to cheat in baseball games. This became so obvious after the 2018 World Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, that Major League Baseball finally did a thorough investigation. The result of that investigation was to prove that the Astros had cheated. The manager, AJ Hinch and general manager Jeff Luhnow were suspended for the entire 2020 season. The Houston Astros ownership had to eat a lot of humble pie and both Hinch and Luhnow were fired.

That did not change the outcome of the 2018 World Series. They did not have to give back the trophy. They are still in the record books as the winners of the 2018 World Series, but few baseball fans consider that to be a legitimate victory. In addition, Houston Astros owner, Jim Crane, accepted the punishment and did not argue against the decision by Major League Baseball. Instead, during the news conference where he announced the firings, he said the following:

“It’s the stiffest penalty that any team has ever taken or given, and we accept that. We’re going to move forward in a positive way.”

He was lucky the other owners did not demand he sell the team. The Houston Astros hired Dusty Baker to be the new manager which is pretty remarkable. Prior to 2020, the Houston Astros were famous for using analytics to manage the team. Dusty Baker is famous for not using analytics.

The Houston Astros are hardly the first team to cheat during a baseball game. Stealing signs is pretty much a tradition for all teams. What was different this time is that they took this to a whole new level, this was beyond obvious, and they got caught. This is very similar to the 2020 Presidential election. Everyone knows what happened, eventually this will all come out, but too late to change the outcome.

It will be interesting to see what happens regarding the impeachment trial of Donald Trump. It is already clear he will not be convicted. That would require 17 Republicans to vote for conviction and no one expects that. If the trial even starts, expect Republicans to strenuously object if Democrats even try to call one witness. The problem for Democrats is that they did not investigate this before voting to impeach and Republicans are not about to let them off the hook for that.

The real question is what will Donald Trump order his attorneys to do? From a legal standpoint, he could just have them refuse to even respond to the Democrats case. That would result in a quick vote which would fall far short of conviction. But Trump may not want to do that, for several reasons. One is that he has nothing to lose. He can’t be removed from an office he no longer holds and there are no indications that he even intends on running for office again. So, to some extent, he has nothing to lose.

Another is that if he directs his attorneys to put on a defense, that will by definition include evidence that the election was stolen. The main argument made by Democrats is that Trump lied about the election being stolen. They want everyone to believe that Trump just couldn’t accept the results of a legitimate election. Any serious discussion at all regarding whether this election was stolen is guaranteed to hurt Democrats. So far, with the help of the MSM, they have just dismissed every allegation as “without any evidence.” Of course, there is no chance of finding evidence if one never bothers to look.

It is important to remember that while this trial will be in the Senate, the real hearing will be before the American people.  Trump doesn’t need to prove that the election was stolen, he just needs to prove that he had just cause to believe it was stolen. So far, the narrative is that Trump must prove the election was stolen. That could easily flip to where Democrats would be required to prove it was not stolen.

I really believe this is a classic case of prosecutorial over-reach. If Democrats had just voted to censor Trump that probably would have passed, with Republican support. That would have been devastating for Donald Trump. More importantly, it would have delayed and potentially eliminated any real investigation into election fraud.

History teaches us that when prosecutors over-reach, they frequently suffer a humiliating loss. A classic example of that was the George Zimmerman trial. If prosecutors had charged him with reckless misconduct, they might have convicted him. But when they charged him with murder, the evidence against that was overwhelming.

I suspect that Democrats will refuse to back down. They are that angry. They are also that dumb. They impeached Trump in anger, before they even learned the facts. Now, they are fully committed.

Sadly, Republicans are likely to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by just demanding a quick vote which will fall far short of convicting Trump. But Democrats would just move to censor Trump and since that would only need 51 votes, that would probably pass. Democrats have lunged into a trap they created for themselves and one would hope, but not expect, that Republicans realize this and refuse facilitate an easy escape.

But no matter what happens with regard to this fiasco of an impeachment trial, Donald Trump will find a way to make his case. We have all learned not to underestimate this man.

If the meantime, if you go to Houston, my hunch is that you won’t see a lot of people wearing a 2018 World Series jacket. Just saying.

 

TDM