According to the LA Times, Jerry Brown is now up by 13 points. Yet Republicans are at least pretending that this race is competitive. So the question is, 1: how accurate is that poll and 2: how competitive is this race?
I went through and looked at the assumptions and the questions in this poll. This quickly showed that the poll is deeply flawed for several reasons. The most important is that this is based on an assumption that turnout by party will be the same as it was in 2008, except they are expecting a 5% larger Democratic turnout. The entire poll is nonsense because of this assumption. Most people believe that right now about voter registration in California is about 44% Democrat and 36% Republican. Yet the people is this poll self identified themselves as 43% Democrat and 28% Republican with 28% independent. Again, nonsense. Obviously if you ask more Democrats than Republicans who is going to vote for the Democrat in any election, the Democrat will almost always win. The poll was also very lengthy and it over sampled latinos, which is standard fare for the LA Times. In other words, the poll results are virtually meaningless, other than to pump up Democratic enthusiasm.
You might recall that these were the same clowns who thought Gray Davis would defeat the recall and if he did lose it would be a cliff hanger between Cruz Bustamonte and Arnold Schwartzenegger. Nailed that one!
So what is the truth? The Brown vs Whitman race is too close to call, but Brown is slightly ahead and this is a Democratic state. She could win this, but she needs a big Republican turnout. With regard to Boxer vs Fiorina, the margin is only about 3 points and Boxer is less than 50. Odds are that Boxer loses.
Sadly we could see another 4 year term for Governor Moonbeam, but it is a bit early to Jerry to start measuring drapes. Whitman is going to hammer him hard over the next five days and she has a lot of ammunition. In addition the Republican wave is proving to be enormous and it may carry a lot of people over the top.
TDM