EXIT STAGE RIGHT

I have always believed that the COVID 19 virus was used as an excuse by the establishment and Democrats to seize power. Many governors enjoyed putting restrictions on everything we do. They reveled in the power. This was intended to cause serious problems in the hope that this would help defeat Donald Trump. It is, of course, unthinkable to wish this level of pain on people for political purposes, but that does not mean it is not true.

I believe when this is all done, there will be an audit that will find the following.

  1. The number of cases is grossly overstated. We already know this because people are testing positive one day and negative the next.  Most recent case was the Ohio governor. Another example was Matthew Stafford, QB for the Detroit Lions.
  2. The number of deaths is grossly understated.  I personally know of people who had relatives who died, from causes unrelated to COVID 19, that were reported as COVID 19 deaths.
  3. There will be no evidence that the general population wearing a mask had any impact on slowing the spread of the disease.
  4. There will be no evidence that locking down large parts of the economy had any impact on slowing the disease. It clearly spread anyway.
  5. There will be clear evidence that shutting down some businesses, like hair salons, was not based on science, it was arbitrary, did not help prevent the spread of the disease, and destroyed people’s lives unnecessarily.

But the biggest impact of COVID 19 will be that a lot of people, and I do mean a lot, now realize they do not have to work in the office. This will impact New York City more than any place else. New York only has 1% of the U.S. area but 8% of the GDP. At recently as January of this year, if you wanted to be a player in the financial world, you had to work in New York City. But that has changed dramatically during the last six months. Now a high percentage of people who work in New York City are still working, but they are working from home. Many of them have figured out something major. If they can work out of an apartment on the lower east side, they can work anywhere. They do not need to live in New York City to work there anymore. They do not have to pay the high taxes. They do not have to pay the high rent. They do not have to put up with the noise and the traffic. They do not have to put up with the filth and the crime. They do not even have to put up with the weather. They don’t even need to live within commuting distance.

There are already numerous reports of people deserting New York City. This is so bad that Governor Cuomo noted and offered to serve them a drink. Good luck with that. The same thing is happening here in California. Housing prices in South Lake Tahoe are skyrocketing because people are deserting San Francisco, for the same reason. They aren’t just deserting San Francisco; they are deserting the suburbs. People who don’t want to live in San Francisco, don’t want to commute there either. Covid 19 has taught them something huge. They don’t have to be here anymore.

When you combine that with the skyrocketing homeless crisis, the rapid increase in crime and insane regulations, the problem becomes worse.

We have all seen this before. A town, located on Route 66 prospered, because everyone had to slow down to drive through there. But once an interstate highway was built the town was reduced to an exit sign on the interstate. Those towns still exist, barely, but the economic boom is long gone. We recently drove through such a town. There were pathetic, faded signs, reminding people of the Route 66 glory days. But those days are gone forever. The same thing happened to towns built around the railroad. Now, we don’t even need roads. We don’t have to travel at all. We just need a reliable connection to the internet.

New York will never recover.  Neither will a place like San Francisco. It will be years, perhaps decades, before this changes. It will be that long before people say: hmm…that is a nice place to live. In the meantime, the people who caused all this will, predictably, be the last to figure it out. Democratic Governors and Mayors in blue states have thrived by mismanaging high density population centers. But the rich people, the ones with big jobs, the ones who fund everything, are leaving. Soon they will be managing a nightmare. The income stream will be long gone, the overcrowded poor, most of whom will be dependents, will stay behind. The homeless population will increase.

This has happened to New York before. It always found a way to adjust. But this time, that may not be possible. Previously, no matter how bad it got, people still “needed” to be in New York. New York remained the financial capital of the country. That is no longer true. New York was nice, while it lasted, but it is rapidly becoming so yesterday. Things that previously required a physical presence in New York can now be done from a tent with a generator and a good antenna.

The law of unintended consequences is in full play. COVID 19, was great at giving Democrats the illusion of control. But ultimately it may have just speeded up a death cycle that should have been obvious to anyone paying attention. Regardless of why, one thing is clear. A whole lot of people have already left, and others are prepared to exit stage right.

TDM

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