WHETHER WARNING!

The only thing certain right now is that the IMHE forecasts were all wrong by significant margins. That is actually good news. If people actually listened to the daily briefings by the White House, we were told these were worst-case scenarios and we hoped to do much better. We are doing much better.

The percent of new cases across the country is starting to trend down. That does not mean there are no new cases, it just means the rate of growth is lower. When you combine that with a massive increase in testing, this is very good news.

The rate of new deaths in New York has changed significantly. It appears to have leveled off and it is likely to start trending down. This same trend is happening nationally. Although there are places where things is going to get worse before they get better, New York is so much larger than every where else that when New York improves, everything improves.

Following are the actual charts. As always, todays numbers will increase significantly.

NEW CASES NEW CASES (PERCENT) DEATHS DEATH (PERCENT)
DATE US NEW YORK OTHER NEW YORK OTHER US NEW YORK OTHER NEW YORK OTHER
6-Apr 347,384 130,689 216,695 37.62% 62.38% 10,282 4,758 5,524 46.28% 53.72%
5-Apr 336,537 122,031 214,506 36.26% 63.74% 9,611 4,159 5,452 43.27% 56.73%
4-Apr 308,812 113,704 195,108 36.82% 63.18% 8,401 3,565 4,836 42.44% 57.56%
3-Apr 276,508 102,863 173,645 37.20% 62.80% 7,381 2,935 4,446 39.76% 60.24%
2-Apr 243,229 92,472 150,757 38.02% 61.98% 5,794 2,373 3,421 40.96% 59.04%
1-Apr 207,637 83,712 123,925 40.32% 59.68% 4,601 1,941 2,660 42.19% 57.81%
31-Mar 186,633 75,795 110,838 40.61% 59.39% 3,833 1,550 2,283 40.44% 59.56%
30-Mar 163,131 68,369 94,762 41.91% 58.09% 3,146 1,224 1,922 38.91% 61.09%
29-Mar 141,125 59,513 81,612 42.17% 57.83% 2,458 965 1,493 39.26% 60.74%
28-Mar 123,311 52,318 70,993 42.43% 57.57% 2,211 728 1,483 32.93% 67.07%
27-Mar 100,390 44,635 55,755 44.46% 55.54% 1,543 519 1,024 33.64% 66.36%
26-Mar 83,545 37,258 46,287 44.60% 55.40% 1,201 385 816 32.06% 67.94%

 

DEATH RATE ANALYSIS
TOTAL DEATHS NEW DEATHS  (PERCENT OF CHANGE)
DATE US NEW YORK OTHER US NEW YORK OTHER US NEW YORK OTHER
6-Apr 10,282 4,758 5,524 671 599 72 6.98% 14.40% 1.32%
5-Apr 9,611 4,159 5,452 1,210 594 616 14.40% 16.66% 12.74%
4-Apr 8,401 3,565 4,836 1,020 630 390 13.82% 21.47% 8.77%
3-Apr 7,381 2,935 4,446 1,587 562 1,025 27.39% 23.68% 29.96%
2-Apr 5,794 2,373 3,421 1,193 432 761 25.93% 22.26% 28.61%
1-Apr 4,601 1,941 2,660 768 391 377 20.04% 25.23% 16.51%
31-Mar 3,833 1,550 2,283 687 326 361 21.84% 26.63% 18.78%
30-Mar 3,146 1,224 1,922 688 259 429 27.99% 26.84% 28.73%
29-Mar 2,458 965 1,493 247 237 10 11.17% 32.55% 0.67%
28-Mar 2,211 728 1,483 668 209 459 43.29% 40.27% 44.82%
27-Mar 1,543 519 1,024 342 134 208 28.48% 34.81% 25.49%

 

The MSM continues to distort data and make things seem worse. For example, headlines scream that the U.S. is now the epicenter of the pandemic. Actually, the U.S. is indisputably handling this better than anywhere else. We just have more people and more testing so our results are higher. But if one looks at the per-capita rates, particularly the per-capita death rates, we are doing very well.

There has been a lot of concern regarding the rate of testing. But, there is no indication that this had any significant impact on the mortality rate. There was one media report of a woman who died waiting for her test result. They just failed to add that she tested negative for COVID 19 when the results were produced.

This reminds me of Hurricane Katrina. After the storm moved on, thousands of people were stranded in New Orleans which had waited too long to evacuate. Many were literally stranded on roof tops. The U.S. Air National Guard and the Coast Guard launched the greatest rescue operation in world history. They set up an emergency operation center at the Super Dome. New crews filmed the devastation but they failed to notice all the helicopters flying right over them. While there were numerous complaints about shortages of food and water in reality no one died because of this. There was plenty of food and water pre-positioned in New Orleans including at the Super Dome and the Convention Center. The media failed to tell you that too. Instead, even today, they pretend that George W.Bush botched Katrina. In reality, the opposite was true. The Federal response literally saved the day.

This time the federal government produced results that are nothing short of miraculous. Even Governor Cuomo admitted today that the temporary hospital built by the federal government and the hospital ship in New York harbor were essential to helping New York cope. Ventilators were sent to those who needed them and re-routed from those who were hoarding for a day that never came. I have seen no verified reports of any patients who died because of lack of access to a ventilator. That is remarkable when one considers the size of this country and the scope of the problem.

Now, we move to the next stage. This is “whether” or not to re-open the country. The pandemic is not over yet, but the end is definitely in sight. It is time to start planning on getting this country back to work. There will be great resistance to any date set by Trump, because everything proposed by Trump is resisted. But his critics would be wise to note that Trump is far better at feeling the nation’s pulse than the talking heads who live in the New York or Washington, D.C. bubbles.

Here is something everyone needs to understand. We have all be pretty much self-isolated since March 17. That means even if you, or anyone else had COVID 19 or got COVID 19 before March 22, you are now immune. The standard quarantine period is 14 days, you and almost everyone else have been quarantined for close to three weeks. The primary people who may have been exposed to COVID 19 during that period have been first responders and health care workers. They are being tested all the time and anyone tested positive is being quarantined. This was the whole point of the mitigation strategy announced by the White House. The President’s 14 day plan was announced on March 17th. Now, we are seeing signs it worked. Remember, most of the statistics you see today came from people exposed to the virus two weeks ago. When the country does go back to work, it will be a remarkably safer place than it was on March 17th.

One final comment. On March 18th, the Washington Post reported that there were 62,000 ventilators in the U.S. They estimated we would need 500,000. Fortunately, that prediction was way off. In the meantime, we have been producing and purchasing ventilators. That of course does not stop the usual suspects from screaming that there are not enough ventilators. Keep in mind that the people purchasing or requesting ventilators sometimes show the same degree of logic and common sense displayed by people hoarding toilet paper. This is what President Trump meant when he said a major challenge was to get ventilators to the people who really need them, not necessarily ventilators to everyone who is afraid they might need them in the future.

Everything will look better by the end of the week. The rain appears to be over. The sun is coming out. It is going to warm up rapidly. It is also going to warm up politically. One of the big fights will be whether or not it is safe to go back to work. It may just be the most important fight of all. This is your “whether warning.”

TDM