The Democratic Party can’t stand anything, so rather than standing for something, they stand for nothing. It picking up speed on a certain path to destruction. The problem is that in their desire to be fair to everyone, they are fair to no one, not even each other. It is probably mathematically impossible for any of the current candidates to win the nomination as the result of the primary elections and caucuses. The reason is quite simple. Democrats decided to award delegates proportionately. You have already seen the results of this strategy in Iowa. Pete Buttigieg was awarded more delegates than Bernie Sanders, even though Sanders got a lot more votes. This will continue with EVERY primary and every caucus. You don’t have to take my word for it, attached are the actual rules as published by the DNC.
- No candidate receives 15% of the vote. If no candidate meets the 15% threshold, Democratic Party rules state the minimum to receive delegates will be 50% of the vote received by the front-runner. For example, if candidate A wins with 10% of the vote, delegates will be allocated proportionately to anyone that receives 5% or more.
- Only one candidate exceeds 15% of the vote — but just barely. If only one candidate gets 15%, the allocation is effectively winner-take-all. This is not a big deal if that person is the clear frontrunner, getting 40%, 50% or more. However, what if the opposite is true — a candidate wins with 16% vote share, while the next three candidates are just a few points behind. If that happened repeatedly favoring the same candidate, the party could potentially end up with a nominee that lacks broad support
Unless someone or something intervenes, it the DNC is probably headed toward a brokered convention. Just imagine if Bernie Sanders gets 30 to 35% of the vote, but he is nowhere the 50% needed. If the DNC gives it to someone else, there will be a whole new meaning to feeling the Berne. Yet, establishment Democrats believe that Bernie is likely to be defeated in a landslide by Donald Trump. Some, like John Kerry, predict he will take down the Democratic Party with him.
The House Impeachment managers are desperately trying to get someone, anyone to listen to them. But even the MSM that cheered them on two weeks ago, recognizes the ugly odor of defeat. Adam Schiff couldn’t even get on a Sunday Talk show yesterday. By next week we will have trouble remembering their names. It is like the MSM just woke up last Monday and said: “hey, we got an election going on.” Impeachment is so yesterday.
Every major network set aside last Monday evening for a full production covering the Iowa Caucus results. Except there were no results. There weren’t even predictions of results. The DNC embarrassed the entire MSM. There weren’t any real results until later in the week and by then everyone had moved on.
But there’s the rub. If Iowa didn’t matter, why did so many supposed smart people spend a lot of time there. Iowa used to matter a lot. They often said there are only three tickets out of Iowa. That is the whole point, it winnows down a crowded field so that people can concentrate on candidates who have some chance at winning. When that doesn’t happen, disaster is inevitable.
Welcome to Disasterville. If Iowa didn’t matter, why should New Hampshire matter? It won’t take long before the entire MSM just waits for Super Tuesday. But Super Tuesday won’t solve the problem either. Bloomberg is likely to buy at least some votes, somewhere. Steyer may even be able to buy some votes. Bernie will be Bernie and Buttigieg will probably lurk in his shadow, for a while. Even Elizabeth Warren may be able to hang on with about 15% of the vote in some states. If you think last Monday was a farce, wait until you watch the results on Super Tuesday. At some point it will become obvious that everyone is getting a participation award, and no one looks like anything resembling a winner.
As for New Hampshire, right now it looks like Sanders will win, by a larger margin than expected. Buttigieg will come in second, and Biden, Warren and Klobuchar will be fighting for third, with none of them likely to get the 15% necessary to be considered a factor. While thousands will wait for hours in the rain and snow to see Trump, Democratic turnout is likely to be suppressed. This is easily a worst-case scenario for Democrats. Yet, in a few weeks, Democrats may look longingly back at Iowa and New Hampshire as the good ole days.
Increasingly the focus will shift from the candidates themselves to the DNC. The same DNC that mucked up Iowa to a fare thee well. As John Kennedy said: “Victory has a thousand fathers, defeat is an orphan.”
TDM