SPIN TO WIN

The first debate is over. It was pretty much a hot mess. Neither candidate looked very presidential. At points I was embarrassed for both of them. We can assume that those people who are already solidly behind Hillary will continue to be solidly behind Hillary. We can also assume that those people who were solidly behind Trump will continue to be solidly behind Trump. The real question is whether either candidate moved the needle with regard to those who are undecided.

Holt started the debate by asking Hillary to brag about the great job growth during the last six years. Talk about a softball question. Hillary was not asked about her e-mails, Benghazi or the Clinton Foundation. The bias was beyond obvious. At times Holt was openly hostile toward Trump. However, this may have actually helped Trump, because it was so obvious. That was particularly true when Holt tried to claim that Trump supported the Iraq war and Trump slammed him with facts, proving Holt wrong. When Holt came close to accusing Trump of being a racist, Trump did not rise to the bait. While the vast majority of blacks will continue to support Hillary, Trump may actually have helped himself by pointing out that law and order is extremely important to minority communities.

I am sure many of the pundits will think Hillary won on points, but most pundits thought that Richard Nixon beat John Kennedy on points when they debated. If this was to be scored by college professors Hillary would win, but this isn’t being evaluated by college professors, it is being evaluated by the American people. I don’t think Hillary changed any minds. Donald Trump may have done exactly that.

Trump really hurt her with regard to the e-mails when he pointed out that all her staff was pleading the fifth. Some people think he missed a big opportunity later when he didn’t hammer her on cyber security. I am not sure that is accurate. I think he hurt her so bad earlier that he did not need to even bring this up again.

Trump just may have flipped the dial on the media fact checkers. He was brilliant in pointing out that it was Hillary’s campaign that started the birther movement when he looked into the camera and pointed out exactly when Hillary’s campaign manager admitted this during an interview on CNN. If the Hillary campaign was predicting this to be a “fact checking” bonanza where they proved that Donald Trump is a liar, he just may have turned that completely around.

Hillary was grossly unsuccessful in painting Trump as a racist. Whether you agree with him or not, he did not come across as a racist. When she hammered him on this tax returns he silenced her by saying he would release his tax returns when she released her 33,000 e-mails. Hillary literally did not have a response.

When she tried to present him as lacking the temperament to be President, he proved her wrong by being calm, cool and collected. He gave thoughtful responses and no one watching this is likely to be afraid of Donald Trump starting a nuclear war. If he accomplished nothing more than that, he scored big.

So, I think Hillary will be declared the big winner, but Trump is the one likely to move up in the polls. Hillary came into this debate near her personal ceiling and odds are higher that she will go down rather than up. Trump on the other hand came in as a big underdog who couldn’t hold his own. He didn’t even need to win, he just needed to survive.

Some people think that Trump needed to make people distrust Hillary. They are wrong. He didn’t need to explain to people why they shouldn’t trust Hillary. They already know that. It was far more important that he look capable. So Hillary won on points, but Trump is the one who will surge in the polls.

TDM