Truth or Consequences

In one of my favorite TV shows, Gomer Pyle and Sergeant Carter had to defuse a ticking time bomb.  Time was running out.  They had to cut either the red wire or the green wire.  If they cut the right wire, the bomb would be defused.  If they cut the wrong wire, the bomb would explode.  Sergeant Carter, in a moment of desperation, asked Gomer which wire he would cut.  Gomer said he would cut the green wire.  Sergeant Carter immediately reached over and cut the red wire.  The bomb was defused.  Gomer asked him why he did that?  Sergeant Carter responded:  “the only thing I was sure about is that you would be wrong.”

 I used to disregard the New York Times as irrelevant propaganda.  This was primarily because the NYT consistently publishes irrelevant propaganda.  But recently I realized that the NYT performs a vital role.  They have replaced Gomer Pyle as the information source almost certain to be wrong about any subject.  All one really needs to do is read the NYT, then assume that the opposite is true.

 For example, yesterday the NYT announced that:

 From the Mall to the Docks, Signs of Rebound

 http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/26/business/economy/26econ.html

 But if you read the article, it is clear that the opposite is true. 

“much of the improvement appears the result of the nearly $800 billion government stimulus program. As that package is largely exhausted late this year, further expansion may hinge on whether consumers keep spending. That probably depends on the job market, which remains weak.”

 There is only one other source equally valuable in predicting future results, Vice President Joe Biden.  He predicts the following:

US Biden Predicts Job Growth Will Grow 250,000-500,000 Monthly

 http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100423-715223.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines

 Even the Obama administration insiders are smart enough to realize this is dumb.

This reminded me of the time I was on the National Risk Management Panel for Willis.  Top risk managers from all over the country met for a four day session.  The first day the risk manager from well-known Fortune 500 company gave a presentation.  It was a glorious multi-media presentation on how they were leveraging grain prices in Iowa against workers’ compensation claims in California.  It made no mention of any traditional risk management approaches.  In effect, it was the perpetual motion machine for risk management.  After the meeting I met for drinks with a close friend and fellow risk manager.  I said:  “either I know absolutely nothing about risk management, or this guy is an idiot.”  He laughed and said that he had the same reaction.  He then smiled and said:  “Terry, you have been doing this a long time, and you know what is true and more importantly, what is not true.” The risk manager who gave that multi-media presentation was from – ENRON.    About six months later, it was really obvious who was right and who was wrong.

So, here’s the deal.  These guys just aren’t that sharp.  They have made mistake after mistake.  Nothing they say or do makes any sense.  It is not a matter of will they fail, but rather how fast and how badly they will fail.  There are only two possibilities here.  Either they are right, and all the people who have been actually creating jobs for decades are wrong, or they are doomed to fail.  Just like Sergeant Carter.  You can bet on them getting it wrong.

 TDM

2 thoughts on “Truth or Consequences

  1. Ironically, at times, polar opposites do attract in order to disclose probable causes, inferences, cabals, clandestined agendas, etc. Great article and, more importantly, fantastic point!!!!

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